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Is there data showing that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are declining or plateauing? If not, aren’t you wrong? Edit: here’s a graph. I see no reason

by jshen 3y ago

Is there data showing that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are declining or plateauing? If not, aren’t you wrong? Edit: here’s a graph. I see no reason to feel optimistic. https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions

wilg 3y ago
I mean you can see it plateauing in that data. Feels good to me!
- jshen 3y ago
  You can’t draw a conclusion from less than 5 data points. If you look back in time on that graph you can see other points where it was flat for a few years, then skyrocketed. If it’s flat 5 years from now then I’d be inclined to agree with you.
  - wilg 3y ago
    If you plot the data with a moving average of anywhere from 2-8 years you can clearly see it flattening more now than at any point after 1950 (I didn't bother checking before).
    - jshen 3y ago
      “Flattening more” is too vague to be meaningful, and there is nothing in that data to suggest that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will stop increasing anytime soon. Nothing. Edit: and here is more damning evidence. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over time is not flattening.
      - wilg 3y ago
        The flattening is what suggests it. You are free to propose or perform a better analysis. Also, you didn't post the additional evidence.
        jshen 3y ago
        First, You haven't shown any evidence to support your claim of a flattening of emissions. Nothing in the data would lead anyone to believe that. Second, what matters most is the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Here is a graph of that, and it's continuing to increase. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... One reason that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere matters more than emissions is that we could also be reducing the planet's ability to remove greenhouse gasses through things like deforestation. I wish there were evidence to believe we are on the right track, but there isn't any at this stage. There are positive things, but in aggregate, it's getting worse as of this moment, not better. My evidence is clear, and here. You haven't shown any to support your claims. At this point I can't tell if you are arguing in bad faith, are arguing just to argue, or don't understand the topic. If you don't provide any evidence or sound good faith reasoning after this, I won't reply. edit: typos
        wilg 3y ago
        I don't know how to explain to you that that graph shows emissions flattening in the last 5 or so years. I guess you just don't want to see it. I never claimed GHG wasn't continuing to increase, though maybe that's what you thought I meant. I meant to discuss the original commenter's opinion that global warming was accelerating. It's not accelerating. It's slowing. Emissions are still increasing, yes, because we don't have a deficit. But increasing isn't the same thing as accelerating. You can also see this in how the actual temperature of the earth (the only metric that matters) has not increased in the past few years. https://climate.nasa.gov/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ (click on "global temperature") Another important metric is that per-capita GHG emissions are declining across the developed world. This indicates we are increasing the efficiency of our society significantly. This is trade-adjusted, so it accounts for emissions embedded in imported goods. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...
        jshen 3y ago
        I don't know how to tell you that you can't jump to conclusions from 3 data points. I guess you don't understand that. "I meant to discuss the original commenter's opinion that global warming was accelerating. It's not accelerating. It's slowing." I don't think you can conclude this at this time, but even if you want to believe it, it's still increasing (GHGs in the atmosphere and temperatures), and that's very bad news. "You can also see this in how the actual temperature of the earth (the only metric that matters) has not increased in the past few years" Again, you can't draw conclusions from 3 data points. Not sure if you are arguing in bad faith here, or simply don't understand. Look back at either the temperature graph or the emissions graph and you can find several 3 year periods where it didn't increase, then it shot right back up again. In the case of the last few years of temperatures, that's due to the La Nina (link below) which lowers temperatures, when we switch back to the El Nino it's going to shoot up again, and likely start breaking records again. We are not on the right track, and all of the evidence shows this. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508
mikrotikker 3y ago
Can we know if we already reached the point of no return and the greenhouse gases are coming from the permafrost melting?
milesskorpen 3y ago
No, that chart doesn't refute any point I made. 10 years ago, we thought we'd be in a worse situation than we are now. Things are still getting worse, but getting worse at a slower rate. If the change in rate continues, things will start to get better at some point.

by jshen 3y ago

wilg 3y ago

I mean you can see it plateauing in that data. Feels good to me!

jshen 3y ago
You can’t draw a conclusion from less than 5 data points. If you look back in time on that graph you can see other points where it was flat for a few years, then skyrocketed. If it’s flat 5 years from now then I’d be inclined to agree with you.
- wilg 3y ago
  If you plot the data with a moving average of anywhere from 2-8 years you can clearly see it flattening more now than at any point after 1950 (I didn't bother checking before).
  - jshen 3y ago
    “Flattening more” is too vague to be meaningful, and there is nothing in that data to suggest that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will stop increasing anytime soon. Nothing. Edit: and here is more damning evidence. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over time is not flattening.
    - wilg 3y ago
      The flattening is what suggests it. You are free to propose or perform a better analysis. Also, you didn't post the additional evidence.
      - jshen 3y ago
        First, You haven't shown any evidence to support your claim of a flattening of emissions. Nothing in the data would lead anyone to believe that. Second, what matters most is the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Here is a graph of that, and it's continuing to increase. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... One reason that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere matters more than emissions is that we could also be reducing the planet's ability to remove greenhouse gasses through things like deforestation. I wish there were evidence to believe we are on the right track, but there isn't any at this stage. There are positive things, but in aggregate, it's getting worse as of this moment, not better. My evidence is clear, and here. You haven't shown any to support your claims. At this point I can't tell if you are arguing in bad faith, are arguing just to argue, or don't understand the topic. If you don't provide any evidence or sound good faith reasoning after this, I won't reply. edit: typos
        wilg 3y ago
        I don't know how to explain to you that that graph shows emissions flattening in the last 5 or so years. I guess you just don't want to see it. I never claimed GHG wasn't continuing to increase, though maybe that's what you thought I meant. I meant to discuss the original commenter's opinion that global warming was accelerating. It's not accelerating. It's slowing. Emissions are still increasing, yes, because we don't have a deficit. But increasing isn't the same thing as accelerating. You can also see this in how the actual temperature of the earth (the only metric that matters) has not increased in the past few years. https://climate.nasa.gov/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ (click on "global temperature") Another important metric is that per-capita GHG emissions are declining across the developed world. This indicates we are increasing the efficiency of our society significantly. This is trade-adjusted, so it accounts for emissions embedded in imported goods. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...
        jshen 3y ago
        I don't know how to tell you that you can't jump to conclusions from 3 data points. I guess you don't understand that. "I meant to discuss the original commenter's opinion that global warming was accelerating. It's not accelerating. It's slowing." I don't think you can conclude this at this time, but even if you want to believe it, it's still increasing (GHGs in the atmosphere and temperatures), and that's very bad news. "You can also see this in how the actual temperature of the earth (the only metric that matters) has not increased in the past few years" Again, you can't draw conclusions from 3 data points. Not sure if you are arguing in bad faith here, or simply don't understand. Look back at either the temperature graph or the emissions graph and you can find several 3 year periods where it didn't increase, then it shot right back up again. In the case of the last few years of temperatures, that's due to the La Nina (link below) which lowers temperatures, when we switch back to the El Nino it's going to shoot up again, and likely start breaking records again. We are not on the right track, and all of the evidence shows this. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508

mikrotikker 3y ago

Can we know if we already reached the point of no return and the greenhouse gases are coming from the permafrost melting?

milesskorpen 3y ago

No, that chart doesn't refute any point I made. 10 years ago, we thought we'd be in a worse situation than we are now. Things are still getting worse, but getting worse at a slower rate. If the change in rate continues, things will start to get better at some point.