Personally, I wasn't expecting anything as good as GPT-4 so soon. So I no longer have any real confidence in how far away 'real AI' is, whatever that means. I

Personally, I wasn't expecting anything as good as GPT-4 so soon. So I no longer have any real confidence in how far away 'real AI' is, whatever that means. I would not be shocked to find out that AGI (using Altman's definition) is more than 50 years away, but I also would not be shocked if it came in 5. It's really hard to know how scared to be, I think that rationally I should be pretty terrified but I'm not.