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> Nuclear power supplies about 50 - 60% of electric energy in Ontario, with 18 reactors currently operating, built 1970s - 1990s. Cf, "Supply" tab: * https://

> Nuclear power supplies about 50 - 60% of electric energy in Ontario, with 18 reactors currently operating, built 1970s - 1990s. Cf, "Supply" tab: * https://www.ieso.ca/en/Power-Data https://www.ieso.ca/en/Power-Data

Retric 4y ago
Yep, and that looks great wind, hydro, and nuclear providing 100% of power at 3pm on a Friday at 2.5c/kWh. But what happens on the weekend when demand for power drops even more? Unfortunately the nuclear power plant operator losses money even faster than they are right now.
- evilos 4y ago
  Based on the graphs from that site, demand never drops low enough to need to lower the output of the nuclear plants.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Nuclear isn’t the only type of power that has low marginal costs. Curtailing wind for nuclear is just as much an economic loss as curtailing nuclear for wind.
- k8wk1 4y ago
  Low electricity costs are a problem for all electricity plans, not only nuclear. Renewables are even more susceptible to this because the weather affects all renewable plants of the same type similarly across wide geographic areas, so there will be times when they all generate more than is needed and nothing can be done about it. What's worse, the output is unpredictable, so there's little opportunity for some business to base its operation on renewable electricity generation patterns. At least the weekend demand drop is predictable, so businesses can use this predictable opportunity to reduce their costs and thus reduce the impact the weekends have on the profitability of nuclear and similar dispatchable plants.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Low is relative, in most areas a 3c/kWh wholesale price is wildly profitable for solar and a massive loss for nuclear. Renewables very much provide surplus power at scale, but they don’t always provide that massive surplus. So, Solar could provide 3/4 of its power when wholesale prices are below 1c/kWh and the economics still end up working out over the year. Meanwhile every other source of power needs to deal with electricity being increasingly cheap for most of the day. > At least the weekend demand drop is predictable, so businesses can use this predictable opportunity to reduce their costs and thus reduce the impact the weekends have on the profitability of nuclear and similar dispatchable plants. There’s almost nothing nuclear can do to reduce its costs when demand is low for a few days. They still need to pay interest, still need security guards, the reinforced concrete is still aging etc. They do major maintenance when seasonal demand drops normally in the spring or fall, but they don’t have any way to make use of downtown over weekends because weekends are so frequent. In a world with cheap electricity for 1/3 the day and cheap electricity 2/7 days a week and cheap electricity for 3-6 months out of the year, they need very high prices the rest of the time to break even.
    - throw0101b 4y ago
      > So, Solar could provide 3/4 of its power when wholesale prices are below 1c/kWh […] Except at night.
      - Retric 4y ago
        Batteries fed cheap solar power can provide relatively cheap peaking power whenever you want. That’s going to effectively be the maximum daily wholesale price per kWh long term. Wind/Hydro and possibly some Nuclear might survive in that kind of an environment, but most industry insiders think Nuclear is basically doomed outside the far north without truly massive subsidies.
        epups 4y ago
        Small problem, we don't have enough batteries to power even one large city for a day and we won't have those for at least a decade.
- SECProto 4y ago
  > Unfortunately the nuclear power plant operator losses money even faster than they are right now. Note that Ontario Power Generation, who owns all the nuclear plants in Ontario, has a positive net income of roughly 20% of gross, and is building Canada's first new nuclear plant in a couple decades. Your generalization is incorrect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Power_Generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Power_Generation
  - Retric 4y ago
    Sure they own nuclear but they also own a great deal of hydroelectric. Their finances are very healthy because they essentially got 50 billion in assets from privatization of public assets including a great deal of very low maintenance hydroelectric generation and significant nuclear again without any upfront cost. Things don’t look nearly as rosy when you consider they’re generating $1.20 billion in net profits off of 60 billion in assets - 10 billion in debt. Essentially without that massive initial subsidy they would be losing money hand over fist.
    - SECProto 4y ago
      Yes, debt financing is awful, and something that has guaranteed long term revenue but large up front capital costs is something that should be publicly owned (i.e. a crown corporation like OPG), not financed by private debt.
- throw0101b 4y ago
  > But what happens on the weekend when demand for power drops even more? Umm… generation is taken offline? Usually Gas and Hydro if renewables are available. If renewables drop then Gas and Hydro are brought back up.
  - Retric 4y ago
    It’s not just that power is taken offline but wholesale prices drop at the same time. In extreme cases the grid will charge you money for every kWh you’re dumping on it. That’s obviously not a profitable time to be generating electricity.

Retric 4y ago

Yep, and that looks great wind, hydro, and nuclear providing 100% of power at 3pm on a Friday at 2.5c/kWh. But what happens on the weekend when demand for power drops even more? Unfortunately the nuclear power plant operator losses money even faster than they are right now.

evilos 4y ago
Based on the graphs from that site, demand never drops low enough to need to lower the output of the nuclear plants.
- Retric 4y ago
  Nuclear isn’t the only type of power that has low marginal costs. Curtailing wind for nuclear is just as much an economic loss as curtailing nuclear for wind.
k8wk1 4y ago
Low electricity costs are a problem for all electricity plans, not only nuclear. Renewables are even more susceptible to this because the weather affects all renewable plants of the same type similarly across wide geographic areas, so there will be times when they all generate more than is needed and nothing can be done about it. What's worse, the output is unpredictable, so there's little opportunity for some business to base its operation on renewable electricity generation patterns. At least the weekend demand drop is predictable, so businesses can use this predictable opportunity to reduce their costs and thus reduce the impact the weekends have on the profitability of nuclear and similar dispatchable plants.
- Retric 4y ago
  Low is relative, in most areas a 3c/kWh wholesale price is wildly profitable for solar and a massive loss for nuclear. Renewables very much provide surplus power at scale, but they don’t always provide that massive surplus. So, Solar could provide 3/4 of its power when wholesale prices are below 1c/kWh and the economics still end up working out over the year. Meanwhile every other source of power needs to deal with electricity being increasingly cheap for most of the day. > At least the weekend demand drop is predictable, so businesses can use this predictable opportunity to reduce their costs and thus reduce the impact the weekends have on the profitability of nuclear and similar dispatchable plants. There’s almost nothing nuclear can do to reduce its costs when demand is low for a few days. They still need to pay interest, still need security guards, the reinforced concrete is still aging etc. They do major maintenance when seasonal demand drops normally in the spring or fall, but they don’t have any way to make use of downtown over weekends because weekends are so frequent. In a world with cheap electricity for 1/3 the day and cheap electricity 2/7 days a week and cheap electricity for 3-6 months out of the year, they need very high prices the rest of the time to break even.
  - throw0101b 4y ago
    > So, Solar could provide 3/4 of its power when wholesale prices are below 1c/kWh […] Except at night.
    - Retric 4y ago
      Batteries fed cheap solar power can provide relatively cheap peaking power whenever you want. That’s going to effectively be the maximum daily wholesale price per kWh long term. Wind/Hydro and possibly some Nuclear might survive in that kind of an environment, but most industry insiders think Nuclear is basically doomed outside the far north without truly massive subsidies.
      - epups 4y ago
        Small problem, we don't have enough batteries to power even one large city for a day and we won't have those for at least a decade.
SECProto 4y ago
> Unfortunately the nuclear power plant operator losses money even faster than they are right now. Note that Ontario Power Generation, who owns all the nuclear plants in Ontario, has a positive net income of roughly 20% of gross, and is building Canada's first new nuclear plant in a couple decades. Your generalization is incorrect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Power_Generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Power_Generation
- Retric 4y ago
  Sure they own nuclear but they also own a great deal of hydroelectric. Their finances are very healthy because they essentially got 50 billion in assets from privatization of public assets including a great deal of very low maintenance hydroelectric generation and significant nuclear again without any upfront cost. Things don’t look nearly as rosy when you consider they’re generating $1.20 billion in net profits off of 60 billion in assets - 10 billion in debt. Essentially without that massive initial subsidy they would be losing money hand over fist.
  - SECProto 4y ago
    Yes, debt financing is awful, and something that has guaranteed long term revenue but large up front capital costs is something that should be publicly owned (i.e. a crown corporation like OPG), not financed by private debt.
throw0101b 4y ago
> But what happens on the weekend when demand for power drops even more? Umm… generation is taken offline? Usually Gas and Hydro if renewables are available. If renewables drop then Gas and Hydro are brought back up.
- Retric 4y ago
  It’s not just that power is taken offline but wholesale prices drop at the same time. In extreme cases the grid will charge you money for every kWh you’re dumping on it. That’s obviously not a profitable time to be generating electricity.