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This is not accurate. Renewable energy is growing faster than expected, and population growth is slowing faster than expected. We do not appear to be on track

This is not accurate. Renewable energy is growing faster than expected, and population growth is slowing faster than expected. We do not appear to be on track to meet worst cases scenarios from the IPCC. Note that I'm not saying there won't be/aren't harms, just that the rate of change does not seem to be accelerating.

jshen 3y ago
Is there data showing that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are declining or plateauing? If not, aren’t you wrong? Edit: here’s a graph. I see no reason to feel optimistic. https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
- wilg 3y ago
  I mean you can see it plateauing in that data. Feels good to me!
  - jshen 3y ago
    You can’t draw a conclusion from less than 5 data points. If you look back in time on that graph you can see other points where it was flat for a few years, then skyrocketed. If it’s flat 5 years from now then I’d be inclined to agree with you.
    - wilg 3y ago
      If you plot the data with a moving average of anywhere from 2-8 years you can clearly see it flattening more now than at any point after 1950 (I didn't bother checking before).
      - jshen 3y ago
        “Flattening more” is too vague to be meaningful, and there is nothing in that data to suggest that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will stop increasing anytime soon. Nothing. Edit: and here is more damning evidence. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over time is not flattening.
        wilg 3y ago
        The flattening is what suggests it. You are free to propose or perform a better analysis. Also, you didn't post the additional evidence.
        jshen 3y ago
        First, You haven't shown any evidence to support your claim of a flattening of emissions. Nothing in the data would lead anyone to believe that. Second, what matters most is the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Here is a graph of that, and it's continuing to increase. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... One reason that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere matters more than emissions is that we could also be reducing the planet's ability to remove greenhouse gasses through things like deforestation. I wish there were evidence to believe we are on the right track, but there isn't any at this stage. There are positive things, but in aggregate, it's getting worse as of this moment, not better. My evidence is clear, and here. You haven't shown any to support your claims. At this point I can't tell if you are arguing in bad faith, are arguing just to argue, or don't understand the topic. If you don't provide any evidence or sound good faith reasoning after this, I won't reply. edit: typos
        wilg 3y ago
        I don't know how to explain to you that that graph shows emissions flattening in the last 5 or so years. I guess you just don't want to see it. I never claimed GHG wasn't continuing to increase, though maybe that's what you thought I meant. I meant to discuss the original commenter's opinion that global warming was accelerating. It's not accelerating. It's slowing. Emissions are still increasing, yes, because we don't have a deficit. But increasing isn't the same thing as accelerating. You can also see this in how the actual temperature of the earth (the only metric that matters) has not increased in the past few years. https://climate.nasa.gov/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ (click on "global temperature") Another important metric is that per-capita GHG emissions are declining across the developed world. This indicates we are increasing the efficiency of our society significantly. This is trade-adjusted, so it accounts for emissions embedded in imported goods. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...
- mikrotikker 3y ago
  Can we know if we already reached the point of no return and the greenhouse gases are coming from the permafrost melting?
- milesskorpen 3y ago
  No, that chart doesn't refute any point I made. 10 years ago, we thought we'd be in a worse situation than we are now. Things are still getting worse, but getting worse at a slower rate. If the change in rate continues, things will start to get better at some point.
pier25 3y ago
> Renewable energy is growing faster than expected, and population growth is slowing faster than expected It will be decades before we can see the results of those actions. > We do not appear to be on track to meet worst cases scenarios from the IPCC The worst as in reaching +5ºC on average around 2100? Maybe not, but we're 100% going to shoot beyond +2ºC global avg in the coming decades. But it gets worse. Europe is warming at 2x the global avg. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/02/europes-climate-warming-at-twice-rate-of-global-average-says-report https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/02/europes-... The Arctic is warming 4x the global avg. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3 The Arctic has a huge influence on the climate of Europe and NA. Also the warming will trigger climatic feedbacks (arctic ice, methane, etc) if that hasn't happened already. There's no human way to stop feedbacks. It's like trying to stop an earthquake. Etc. So yeah, things are looking pretty dire.

jshen 3y ago

Is there data showing that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are declining or plateauing? If not, aren’t you wrong? Edit: here’s a graph. I see no reason to feel optimistic. https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions

wilg 3y ago
I mean you can see it plateauing in that data. Feels good to me!
- jshen 3y ago
  You can’t draw a conclusion from less than 5 data points. If you look back in time on that graph you can see other points where it was flat for a few years, then skyrocketed. If it’s flat 5 years from now then I’d be inclined to agree with you.
  - wilg 3y ago
    If you plot the data with a moving average of anywhere from 2-8 years you can clearly see it flattening more now than at any point after 1950 (I didn't bother checking before).
    - jshen 3y ago
      “Flattening more” is too vague to be meaningful, and there is nothing in that data to suggest that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will stop increasing anytime soon. Nothing. Edit: and here is more damning evidence. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over time is not flattening.
      - wilg 3y ago
        The flattening is what suggests it. You are free to propose or perform a better analysis. Also, you didn't post the additional evidence.
        jshen 3y ago
        First, You haven't shown any evidence to support your claim of a flattening of emissions. Nothing in the data would lead anyone to believe that. Second, what matters most is the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Here is a graph of that, and it's continuing to increase. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... One reason that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere matters more than emissions is that we could also be reducing the planet's ability to remove greenhouse gasses through things like deforestation. I wish there were evidence to believe we are on the right track, but there isn't any at this stage. There are positive things, but in aggregate, it's getting worse as of this moment, not better. My evidence is clear, and here. You haven't shown any to support your claims. At this point I can't tell if you are arguing in bad faith, are arguing just to argue, or don't understand the topic. If you don't provide any evidence or sound good faith reasoning after this, I won't reply. edit: typos
        wilg 3y ago
        I don't know how to explain to you that that graph shows emissions flattening in the last 5 or so years. I guess you just don't want to see it. I never claimed GHG wasn't continuing to increase, though maybe that's what you thought I meant. I meant to discuss the original commenter's opinion that global warming was accelerating. It's not accelerating. It's slowing. Emissions are still increasing, yes, because we don't have a deficit. But increasing isn't the same thing as accelerating. You can also see this in how the actual temperature of the earth (the only metric that matters) has not increased in the past few years. https://climate.nasa.gov/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ (click on "global temperature") Another important metric is that per-capita GHG emissions are declining across the developed world. This indicates we are increasing the efficiency of our society significantly. This is trade-adjusted, so it accounts for emissions embedded in imported goods. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...
mikrotikker 3y ago
Can we know if we already reached the point of no return and the greenhouse gases are coming from the permafrost melting?
milesskorpen 3y ago
No, that chart doesn't refute any point I made. 10 years ago, we thought we'd be in a worse situation than we are now. Things are still getting worse, but getting worse at a slower rate. If the change in rate continues, things will start to get better at some point.

pier25 3y ago

> Renewable energy is growing faster than expected, and population growth is slowing faster than expected It will be decades before we can see the results of those actions. > We do not appear to be on track to meet worst cases scenarios from the IPCC The worst as in reaching +5ºC on average around 2100? Maybe not, but we're 100% going to shoot beyond +2ºC global avg in the coming decades. But it gets worse. Europe is warming at 2x the global avg. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/02/europes-climate-warming-at-twice-rate-of-global-average-says-report https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/02/europes-... The Arctic is warming 4x the global avg. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3 The Arctic has a huge influence on the climate of Europe and NA. Also the warming will trigger climatic feedbacks (arctic ice, methane, etc) if that hasn't happened already. There's no human way to stop feedbacks. It's like trying to stop an earthquake. Etc. So yeah, things are looking pretty dire.