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If you want to use a quantitative method to weigh these two choices, use something like a Net-Present-Value ([1]) comparison of both these choices. That would
by vivegi 3y ago
If you want to use a quantitative method to weigh these two choices, use something like a Net-Present-Value ([1]) comparison of both these choices.
That would mean listing down all assumptions that impact the total value
- cash
- number of options, strike price, current fair market value
- future vests
- a calculated PE ratio for your stock and EPS (use some proxy if you don't have earnings directly)
- future earnings growth projections
- interest rate (for discounting future cashflows)
Do this for both choices and project the cash flow (for you) from both options.
Then choose the one with the higher NPV.
Unfortunately, there is some crystal ball gazing you have to do to get earnings, earnings growth, interest rate etc., But, if you use the same basis for computing both the options, you have a decent approach.
Don't disregard your gut feel. But do that after you have done the quantitative approach. That will inform and influence your gut reaction.
Good luck.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_present_value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_present_value