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Probably the digital world will reclaim all the digital jobs via AI models. What will be left is manual jobs. So we should encourage the next generation to be p

Probably the digital world will reclaim all the digital jobs via AI models. What will be left is manual jobs. So we should encourage the next generation to be plumbers , carpenters, construction workers, chefs , explorers just like human were 500 years . Robotics is still a hard nut to crack.

bugglebeetle 3y ago
> plumbers , carpenters, construction workers, chefs , explorers There’s not enough real world demand for everyone to do these jobs, so what this really would amount to is masses of unemployed people subsistence farming, rotting on the street or being absorbed into organized crime syndicates or militant groups. Just take a look at how this plays out in many poor countries today.
- AlecSchueler 3y ago
  I think unemployment could mean something quite different in the future though if it becomes the new norm and is culturally accepted. There's plenty to do with your time outside of traditional work. Maybe we can work on bringing our communities better together, work through our personal and social traumas in a way we've never been able to since day 1.
  - bugglebeetle 3y ago
    In the 250 years since America’s founding, the idea that economic success is directly conflated with divine favor has only become more deeply ingrained, dressing itself up in the philosophy of eugenics, various economic schools, and so-called “rationalism,” even as we have (nominally) moved ever farther away from its origins in Protestant Ideology. The idea that unemployment will take on a new meaning in this context seems unlikely. Quite the contrary, the idea that AI-driven dispossession is necessary and preordained to sanctify the wisdom and virtue of its creators seems to already be taking hold.
    - nice_byte 3y ago
      > the idea that AI-driven dispossession is necessary and preordained to sanctify the wisdom and virtue of its creators seems to already be taking hold I am not seeing that anywhere. Most of what i see is astounding naivety like in your parent's comment - completely unfounded hope that "things will work out for everyone".
      - bugglebeetle 3y ago
        Go look at anything Altman and his compatriots have said about the need for “alignment” in their creation of a supposed god, or the “long-termism” ideology from which much of this emerged, which is really little more than warmed over Calvinism.
        nice_byte 3y ago
        I meant to say that I don't see anyone outright claiming that ai-induced poverty and dispossession is "actually a Good Thing" and those affected by it would "deserve it". Stating something like that would be way too stupid even for those completely detached from the everyday reality of normal people. On the contrary, constant attempts are made to smooth these things over by talking about UBI and how people will be free to pursue Things That Matter (tm).
        bugglebeetle 3y ago
        There’s thinly-veiled versions of that all over this site now, but yes, that’s the point of all the ideological dressing. Mostly, it takes the form of “it’s impossible to stop progress now, how dare these Luddites stand in the way of free energy and curing every disease” etc
        AlecSchueler 3y ago
        It's funny you say that while I've been called a luddite several times here for concern over deepfake abuse material.
  - the_only_law 3y ago
    I’d wager we start killing each other before that.
- nice_byte 3y ago
  Yup. Mark my words, there will be paramilitary units blowing up datacenters. Not that it'll help their situation much.
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  In India, farming is intentionally hobbled and kept under-mechanized to ensure employment for the bulk of the population. There are limits on land holding and commercial sales, such that most farms are just a few acres, making large scale mechanization unfeasible. There will be regulation against AI if it ends up threatening a lot of jobs.
meh8881 3y ago
Those roles are not representative of the typical worker 500 years ago at all
greenhearth 3y ago
What is this obsession with plumbers lately? I respect them and their profession as one of the many professions and careers that humans can pursue, but the push for plumbing is now a cliche, and it is used as codeword for "higher education is bad." Do you not understand that this usage also disrespects plumbers, insinuating that they're all dumb oafs only good for unclogging toilets?
- la64710 3y ago
  I respect plumbers and every other honest profession that do not harm others.
nice_byte 3y ago
"we should be encouraging the next generation to become neo-serfs" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35348353&p=3#35363829 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35348353&p=3#35363829
ben_w 3y ago
500 years ago, 95% of humans were farmers; this is because we hadn't yet invented the combine harvester or the automatic cow milking machine.
- la64710 3y ago
  500 years ago there were flourishing civilizations in many parts of the world specially Asia and there were tradesmen and tradescraft of all sorts practiced by the population. Those mind boggling buildings and roads did not build by themselves.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Yes, and 95% of the people in those civilisations were farmers and fishermen. The old buildings, the wonders of the world, are both neat and in many cases big, but I wouldn't call them "mind-boggling"; Now, One World Trade Center in Manhattan, that's mind boggling. Seen it in person, it's of a grand enough scale that my normal distance cues like parallax didn't work and it became like a skybox in a videogame to my perception until I got really close. I think, ironically, all those nice old bits of architecture from c. 1523 kinda prove my point: doing that with 5% of a population roughly 1/10th to 1/20th of todays in size, and one which didn't have power tools and mechanised construction equipment, means you could replicate all those things again by hand, one or two hundred times over and still have half the population be idle.
    - tuatoru 3y ago
      The true figure is probably more like 60%. Most of the rest were military types ("aristocracy" at various levels), but there were also millers, potters, masons, wrights (makers), carters, smiths, priests, and so on. (Observe that all of those occupations remain as surnames in use today.)
      - ben_w 3y ago
        I've never heard claims even remotely that low in that era; but even at 50% agriculture and fishing instead of 95%, the world population has grown enough for 10-20 times as much fancy architecture made by hand with half the population idle. And we aren't limited to muscle power and mediocre bricks and mortar these days, which is why we can do fancier architecture than the middle ages ever could.
nickfromseattle 3y ago
If white collar workers are displaced, millions will re-train as blue collar and bring down wages there too.

bugglebeetle 3y ago

> plumbers , carpenters, construction workers, chefs , explorers There’s not enough real world demand for everyone to do these jobs, so what this really would amount to is masses of unemployed people subsistence farming, rotting on the street or being absorbed into organized crime syndicates or militant groups. Just take a look at how this plays out in many poor countries today.

AlecSchueler 3y ago
I think unemployment could mean something quite different in the future though if it becomes the new norm and is culturally accepted. There's plenty to do with your time outside of traditional work. Maybe we can work on bringing our communities better together, work through our personal and social traumas in a way we've never been able to since day 1.
- bugglebeetle 3y ago
  In the 250 years since America’s founding, the idea that economic success is directly conflated with divine favor has only become more deeply ingrained, dressing itself up in the philosophy of eugenics, various economic schools, and so-called “rationalism,” even as we have (nominally) moved ever farther away from its origins in Protestant Ideology. The idea that unemployment will take on a new meaning in this context seems unlikely. Quite the contrary, the idea that AI-driven dispossession is necessary and preordained to sanctify the wisdom and virtue of its creators seems to already be taking hold.
  - nice_byte 3y ago
    > the idea that AI-driven dispossession is necessary and preordained to sanctify the wisdom and virtue of its creators seems to already be taking hold I am not seeing that anywhere. Most of what i see is astounding naivety like in your parent's comment - completely unfounded hope that "things will work out for everyone".
    - bugglebeetle 3y ago
      Go look at anything Altman and his compatriots have said about the need for “alignment” in their creation of a supposed god, or the “long-termism” ideology from which much of this emerged, which is really little more than warmed over Calvinism.
      - nice_byte 3y ago
        I meant to say that I don't see anyone outright claiming that ai-induced poverty and dispossession is "actually a Good Thing" and those affected by it would "deserve it". Stating something like that would be way too stupid even for those completely detached from the everyday reality of normal people. On the contrary, constant attempts are made to smooth these things over by talking about UBI and how people will be free to pursue Things That Matter (tm).
        bugglebeetle 3y ago
        There’s thinly-veiled versions of that all over this site now, but yes, that’s the point of all the ideological dressing. Mostly, it takes the form of “it’s impossible to stop progress now, how dare these Luddites stand in the way of free energy and curing every disease” etc
        AlecSchueler 3y ago
        It's funny you say that while I've been called a luddite several times here for concern over deepfake abuse material.
- the_only_law 3y ago
  I’d wager we start killing each other before that.
nice_byte 3y ago
Yup. Mark my words, there will be paramilitary units blowing up datacenters. Not that it'll help their situation much.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
In India, farming is intentionally hobbled and kept under-mechanized to ensure employment for the bulk of the population. There are limits on land holding and commercial sales, such that most farms are just a few acres, making large scale mechanization unfeasible. There will be regulation against AI if it ends up threatening a lot of jobs.

meh8881 3y ago

Those roles are not representative of the typical worker 500 years ago at all

greenhearth 3y ago

What is this obsession with plumbers lately? I respect them and their profession as one of the many professions and careers that humans can pursue, but the push for plumbing is now a cliche, and it is used as codeword for "higher education is bad." Do you not understand that this usage also disrespects plumbers, insinuating that they're all dumb oafs only good for unclogging toilets?

la64710 3y ago
I respect plumbers and every other honest profession that do not harm others.

nice_byte 3y ago

"we should be encouraging the next generation to become neo-serfs" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35348353&p=3#35363829 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35348353&p=3#35363829

ben_w 3y ago

500 years ago, 95% of humans were farmers; this is because we hadn't yet invented the combine harvester or the automatic cow milking machine.

la64710 3y ago
500 years ago there were flourishing civilizations in many parts of the world specially Asia and there were tradesmen and tradescraft of all sorts practiced by the population. Those mind boggling buildings and roads did not build by themselves.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Yes, and 95% of the people in those civilisations were farmers and fishermen. The old buildings, the wonders of the world, are both neat and in many cases big, but I wouldn't call them "mind-boggling"; Now, One World Trade Center in Manhattan, that's mind boggling. Seen it in person, it's of a grand enough scale that my normal distance cues like parallax didn't work and it became like a skybox in a videogame to my perception until I got really close. I think, ironically, all those nice old bits of architecture from c. 1523 kinda prove my point: doing that with 5% of a population roughly 1/10th to 1/20th of todays in size, and one which didn't have power tools and mechanised construction equipment, means you could replicate all those things again by hand, one or two hundred times over and still have half the population be idle.
  - tuatoru 3y ago
    The true figure is probably more like 60%. Most of the rest were military types ("aristocracy" at various levels), but there were also millers, potters, masons, wrights (makers), carters, smiths, priests, and so on. (Observe that all of those occupations remain as surnames in use today.)
    - ben_w 3y ago
      I've never heard claims even remotely that low in that era; but even at 50% agriculture and fishing instead of 95%, the world population has grown enough for 10-20 times as much fancy architecture made by hand with half the population idle. And we aren't limited to muscle power and mediocre bricks and mortar these days, which is why we can do fancier architecture than the middle ages ever could.

nickfromseattle 3y ago

If white collar workers are displaced, millions will re-train as blue collar and bring down wages there too.