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The real targets are and always have been Toyota and VW. Tesla sold 440,808 vehicles on Q1 2023, so its annualized rate is currently 1,763,232. The company is o
by cs702 4y ago
The real targets are and always have been Toyota and VW. Tesla sold 440,808 vehicles on Q1 2023, so its annualized rate is currently 1,763,232. The company is on track to sell ~1.8 to 2.0 million vehicles this year -- already in the same league as BMW and Mercedes. Tesla unit sales have been growing by ~50%/year, on average. If unit growth stays at this level (a big IF!), Tesla will overtake Ford in 2-3 years, GM in 3-4 years and Toyota and VW in 4-5 years.
World's largest carmakers by number of vehicles sold in 2022:
Automaker # sold 2022
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1 Toyota 9,566,961
2 VW 8,263,104
3 Hyundai Kia 6,848,198
4 Stellantis 6,002,900
5 GM 5,941,737
6 Ford 4,235,737
7 Honda 4,074,372
8 Nissan 3,225,478
9 BMW 2,399,636
10 Changan 2,347,163
11 Renault 2,051,174
12 Mercedes 2,043,900
13 Maruti Suzuki 1,940,067
14 Geely 1,432,988
15 Tesla 1,369,611
Source: https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/car-sales-by-manufacturer.html https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/car-sales-by-manufacture...
- toomuchtodo 4y agoI believe Tesla is going to execute exceptionally well in this regard with Tom Zhu running automotive. Like Elon, he is obsessed with execution and this is his entire focus. Legacy automakers are run by management where this is not their life. No judgement, just an observation of force behind market participants. With that said, energy is rapidly eclipsing the automotive business. Lathrop Megafactory has a two year book of work ahead of it, and Tesla will shortly be building another Megapack factory in China to keep up (Lathrop went from groundbreaking to production in a year). https://ir.tesla.com/corporate/tom-zhu https://ir.tesla.com/corporate/tom-zhu https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3206179/who-teslas-tom-zhu-chinese-exec-praised-elon-musk-burning-3am-oil https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article... https://insideevs.com/news/630323/elon-musk-tom-zhu-comments/ https://insideevs.com/news/630323/elon-musk-tom-zhu-comments... https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increase-energy-storage-deployment-thanks-megafactory/ https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increas...
- TheLoafOfBread 4y agoThey will need tad more models for that than Model 3 and Model 3 Combi. Most of the world is not Russia where everyone drives Lada VAZ 2105
- panick21_ 4y agoThey are building a gigantic factory in Mexico and likely in China to build a new model. But the reality is most cars sold are simply SUV or sedans. If they add a smaller car and pickup/van platform. They can cover millions of sales with that alone. Tesla saves a huge amount of money, VW in comparison has a MEV platform but then essentially builds almost the exact same car 4 times, once for VW, once for Skoda, once for Audi. And then runs advertisements for each of them. Achieving the same volume without splitting into many brands is a huge cost advantage.
- user_named 4y agoIt's the other way around. Running multiple brands on a single platform is a huge cost advantage.
- panick21_ 4y agoNo it isn't. If you sell 1 million vehicles of 5 brand or 1 million vehicles on 1 brand, you clearly save a huge amount of money not to have to design 5 different cars and 5 different production lines, 5 different versions of the software, 5 different companies that each have their own overhead and so on. Tesla makes the same Model Y on 4 different factories and produces more of them then all SUV that VW makes on their platform. And VW produces it in many more different plants. Having multiple brands on one platform is only an advantage if you somehow think that having multiple brands increases your sales.
- user_named 4y agoYou don't get it. Having more brands is a way to increase sales.