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I have a fundamental question though. Will EVs (Li battery based) achieve the holy grail of IC engine replacement? Earth's Lithium deposits.................. 8

by vivegi 3y ago

I have a fundamental question though. Will EVs (Li battery based) achieve the holy grail of IC engine replacement? Earth's Lithium deposits.................. 88,000,000,000 Kilograms [2], [3] @25% Viable for mining.................... 22,000,000,000 Kilograms [2], [3] Tesla S battery weight.................... 540 Kilograms per car [4] Lithium weight per Tesla S battery........ 63 Kilograms per battery [4] Max Tesla S (global) production possible.. 349,206,349 units (See Edit below) Number of automobiles running in the USA.. 102,000,000 units [1] Number of automobiles running in the World 1,500,000,000 units [5] So, even if we theoretically assume that the earth's entire known Li reserves are used for EV usage, we cannot replace more than 25% of the currently running cars in the world. So, we have a bigger problem ahead of us (over the next decade) that will act as an opposing force against EV penetration and replacement of the IC engine. Solutions possibly lie in exploring other battery chemistries while improving the efficiency of Li extraction. Edit: As some of the comments below point out, the Li content in a Tesla Model S battery is approx. 63 Kg. That makes the Max Tesla S (production) possible to 349 million units. So, in theory, one could replace all IC engines in automobiles plying in the USA. That then leaves the rest of the world. So, the problem still remains. [1]: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2021/mv1.cfm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2021/m... [2]: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/lithium-supply-batteries-electric-vehicles/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/li... [3]: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-c... [4]: https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight [5]: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-worldwide-is-set-to-double-by-2040 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-wo...

tryptophan 3y ago
Known Earth's Lithium deposits =/= Earth's Lithium Deposits
- epistasis 3y ago
  And in fact this number changed by large amounts in the last decade, even before the current boom of the 2020s. Remember peak oil, which was a big panic of some in the 2000s? It turns out that peak production didn't happen overall, but if you look at the original set of "known resources", the peak oil predictions were spot on. Yet we didn't experience huge oil supply shortages because huge expenditures into new fracking tech enables far more resources to be accessed. We have always loved in a complete abundance of lithium, so we never bothered to look for more resources. Now that we need more, we will find it. It's not a particularly rare element.
mjgant 3y ago
Is 540KG per car just Lithium? A quick google returned this ~63KG https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla-batteries-possible-bottleneck/#:~:text=It%20is%20estimated%20that%20there%E2%80%99s%20about%2063%20kg%20of%20lithium%20in%20a%2070%20kWh%20Tesla%20Model%20S%20battery%20pack%2C%20which%20weighs%20over%201%2C000%20lbs%20(~453%20kg) https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla....
breischl 3y ago
You didn't cite sources for the critical pieces of that (the first three numbers). You also assumed that the battery is 100% lithium, which is obviously wrong. A random Googling says closer to 62kg. And now I'm tired of bothering to fact check you. I'm also going to say that all the car companies, battery companies, and governments in the world probably took six seconds to do basic math before investing trillions of dollars in it. https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight
- vivegi 3y ago
  The 62kg is a valid point. I have revised the calculation and added the citations. The problem still remains (at the global level).
  - vel0city 3y ago
    > The problem still remains It doesn't, because that 88,000,000,000 is a lower bound amount of lithium on the planet not an upper bound. If I count all the apples on the apple tree in my yard, I haven't counted all the apples on the planet. Only the applies I know about. There's probably still more apple trees out there! That 88,000,000,000 figure also doesn't count any lithium in the oceans. Taking even a small fraction from there would make that 88,000,000,000 seem tiny.
  - breischl 3y ago
    Sibling comment is a good point. Also there are lots of other battery chemistries available that use less, or no, lithium. Or approaches burning hydrogen, or ammonia, or methane. More broadly, this is a class of complaint that you can't see every detail of path and the destination from the very beginning of the road. The solution to that isn't to stand around and complain about it, but _start moving towards the destination_.
pl90087 3y ago
One of the problems ahead of you personally is the insight that a Li battery is not 100% lithium. It's a fraction of that.
paconbork 3y ago
But only a small portion of the battery's weight is lithium, right? This older source has a 453 kg Tesla battery as containing 63 kg of lithium, for example: https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla-batteries-possible-bottleneck/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla...
naasking 3y ago
> I have a fundamental question though. Will EVs (Li battery based) achieve the holy grail of IC engine replacement? Even if they couldn't, why would you limit your analysis to Li-based batteries? It's basic economics that when a resource becomes rarer, it becomes more costly and alternatives spring up. EVs with Sodium batteries are already on the market in China. This whole Lithium fear mongering is such a red herring.
- vivegi 3y ago
  I agree it cannot be dependent only on Li. That is why I had stated in the last line of my post > Solutions possibly lie in exploring other battery chemistries while improving the efficiency of Li extraction.
tpm 3y ago
There are like 200 billion tons of lithium in seawater. If we really need it, there will be ways to extract it economically.
vel0city 3y ago
> Owing to continuing exploration, identified lithium resources have increased substantially... Emphasis added from your [3]. Ever think maybe your 88,000,000,000 Kilograms number isn't actually all the lithium on the planet, and maybe there's more undiscovered under the ground? Or do you think all the lithium on the planet was discovered in 2023, and now there won't be any more reserves found? Strange how this maximum amount of lithium reserves keeps magically growing year over year over year over year. I wonder how it magically appears.
- vivegi 3y ago
  Yes, exploration and discovery of new deposits continues. Everything else remaining constant, the 88M tonnes (99M tonnes in the latest USGS report in [3]) will need to go up by orders of magnitude to get the 25% to 100% (if that is ever the goal).
  - vel0city 3y ago
    The US went from 700,000 to over 12,000,000 from the 90s to today. In places where we've actually really started to look, we've found orders of magnitude more. I wonder how much more we'll find when we actually go looking for it elsewhere.

by vivegi 3y ago

tryptophan 3y ago

Known Earth's Lithium deposits =/= Earth's Lithium Deposits

epistasis 3y ago
And in fact this number changed by large amounts in the last decade, even before the current boom of the 2020s. Remember peak oil, which was a big panic of some in the 2000s? It turns out that peak production didn't happen overall, but if you look at the original set of "known resources", the peak oil predictions were spot on. Yet we didn't experience huge oil supply shortages because huge expenditures into new fracking tech enables far more resources to be accessed. We have always loved in a complete abundance of lithium, so we never bothered to look for more resources. Now that we need more, we will find it. It's not a particularly rare element.

mjgant 3y ago

Is 540KG per car just Lithium? A quick google returned this ~63KG https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla-batteries-possible-bottleneck/#:~:text=It%20is%20estimated%20that%20there%E2%80%99s%20about%2063%20kg%20of%20lithium%20in%20a%2070%20kWh%20Tesla%20Model%20S%20battery%20pack%2C%20which%20weighs%20over%201%2C000%20lbs%20(~453%20kg) https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla....

breischl 3y ago

You didn't cite sources for the critical pieces of that (the first three numbers). You also assumed that the battery is 100% lithium, which is obviously wrong. A random Googling says closer to 62kg. And now I'm tired of bothering to fact check you. I'm also going to say that all the car companies, battery companies, and governments in the world probably took six seconds to do basic math before investing trillions of dollars in it. https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight

vivegi 3y ago
The 62kg is a valid point. I have revised the calculation and added the citations. The problem still remains (at the global level).
- vel0city 3y ago
  > The problem still remains It doesn't, because that 88,000,000,000 is a lower bound amount of lithium on the planet not an upper bound. If I count all the apples on the apple tree in my yard, I haven't counted all the apples on the planet. Only the applies I know about. There's probably still more apple trees out there! That 88,000,000,000 figure also doesn't count any lithium in the oceans. Taking even a small fraction from there would make that 88,000,000,000 seem tiny.
- breischl 3y ago
  Sibling comment is a good point. Also there are lots of other battery chemistries available that use less, or no, lithium. Or approaches burning hydrogen, or ammonia, or methane. More broadly, this is a class of complaint that you can't see every detail of path and the destination from the very beginning of the road. The solution to that isn't to stand around and complain about it, but _start moving towards the destination_.

pl90087 3y ago

One of the problems ahead of you personally is the insight that a Li battery is not 100% lithium. It's a fraction of that.

paconbork 3y ago

But only a small portion of the battery's weight is lithium, right? This older source has a 453 kg Tesla battery as containing 63 kg of lithium, for example: https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla-batteries-possible-bottleneck/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla...

naasking 3y ago

> I have a fundamental question though. Will EVs (Li battery based) achieve the holy grail of IC engine replacement? Even if they couldn't, why would you limit your analysis to Li-based batteries? It's basic economics that when a resource becomes rarer, it becomes more costly and alternatives spring up. EVs with Sodium batteries are already on the market in China. This whole Lithium fear mongering is such a red herring.

vivegi 3y ago
I agree it cannot be dependent only on Li. That is why I had stated in the last line of my post > Solutions possibly lie in exploring other battery chemistries while improving the efficiency of Li extraction.

tpm 3y ago

There are like 200 billion tons of lithium in seawater. If we really need it, there will be ways to extract it economically.

vel0city 3y ago

> Owing to continuing exploration, identified lithium resources have increased substantially... Emphasis added from your [3]. Ever think maybe your 88,000,000,000 Kilograms number isn't actually all the lithium on the planet, and maybe there's more undiscovered under the ground? Or do you think all the lithium on the planet was discovered in 2023, and now there won't be any more reserves found? Strange how this maximum amount of lithium reserves keeps magically growing year over year over year over year. I wonder how it magically appears.

vivegi 3y ago
Yes, exploration and discovery of new deposits continues. Everything else remaining constant, the 88M tonnes (99M tonnes in the latest USGS report in [3]) will need to go up by orders of magnitude to get the 25% to 100% (if that is ever the goal).
- vel0city 3y ago
  The US went from 700,000 to over 12,000,000 from the 90s to today. In places where we've actually really started to look, we've found orders of magnitude more. I wonder how much more we'll find when we actually go looking for it elsewhere.