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They're unlikely to succeed because if the massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) actually gets implemented, all of the poor people who are forced to buy an unaf
by 0xy 4y ago
They're unlikely to succeed because if the massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) actually gets implemented, all of the poor people who are forced to buy an unaffordable EV will vote for populists promising to unwind the bans.
- missingdays 4y agoNot all countries are car-centric as USA
- rootusrootus 4y agoThat's objectively true because it's an absolute. Most advanced nations are pretty much car-dependent, however.
- nicoburns 4y agoThey’re only banning sales of new EVs in the short term, and poor people don’t buy new cars anyway. By the time they are buying EVs, they’ll be much cheaper.
- j16sdiz 4y agoI doubt this. The manufacturer are pushing subscription-base model. Used electric car won't become cheap
- nicoburns 4y agoManufacturers are also pushing this for ICE cars, so that’s not really a differentiation point between ICEs and electric. Hopefully we will get legislation to tame this trend for cars and other goods.
- mavhc 4y agoWhen I bought my used EV there were 2 options: Leaf or Zoe. As a high percentage of Zoe's had rented batteries, and the websites didn't have a filter for that, I didn't even bother test driving one.
- scire 4y agoYou missed out - they’re giving away the batteries for almost nothing now to get rid of the lease. Mine was manufactured in 2011 (!) and is still at 93% of its original 22 kWh rated capacity after doing 90.000km, which is amazing compared to a Leaf.
- bluGill 4y agoI doubt that. They are trying the subscription model, but used car drivers are more price sensitive and are likely to not fall for it. If the car doesn't have a lifetime subscription included used car drivers will soon get the word out don't buy that car. Car manufactures depend on their cars having a good resale value - people who buy new cars tend to trade them in every 3 years, and that only works out because the car has value to someone else. It will take time for this to work out in the market. BMW is small enough to trick people, but the large car makers are not.
- wahern 4y agoAt least in the U.S., poor people buy used cars, while existing and proposed ICE bans effect new car sales. Any real economic effect will be delayed until after the ban, and in any event they'll still be buying used cars. I suppose used EVs might end up costing more, but they might end up costing less. Also, the immediate effect of bans might actually be to create a glut of cheap, used ICE cars. None of that implies less risk of a populist backlash, though; not for any class of 'mericans, rich or poor.
- Loughla 4y agoAt least in the US, poor people used to but used cars, until the used car market tanked in 2021 or so. Now they buy new, but finance for 84+ months.
- doetoe 4y agoIsn't it populist to call this a tax on poor people?
- otabdeveloper4 4y agoIt's not populist to call things what they really are.
- earthscienceman 4y agoYou know how I know you aren't poor? You think anyone in the bottom quartile will buy a new car. This is hardly a regressive policy. It directly targets the wealthier populations. That said, in the interest of honest debate, it will shift the used car market prices significantly initially until supply of used EVs spins up. Although this is very secondary.
- AtlasBarfed 4y agoPartly the use market exists in ICE because there isn't really a cheap new ICE, but with stuff like sodium ions and the fundamental simplicity of the EV drivetrain, what I think is going to happen is that you're going to get a much wider range of electric cars that will suit a lot more modes of transportation and people won't have to use old ICE Used cars to get around. I think it's going to happen is essentially you're going to get like a $10,000 new EV you can buy that's going to be cheaper to use energywise/ fuel-wise than a clunker ice. I think the driver this will be the Chinese / India markets where you have basically two to three billion people that will want cars at that price point and that stuff will eventually make its way into the US
- geysersam 4y agoIt's less populist and more a talking point. It's the perfect cover. "We can't stop allowing the rich to destroy the climate because we care so much about poor people." In '35 it's doubtful ICE will be cheaper than EV anyway (look at price development over last decade...) Banning ICE will speed up this development. Climate change will disproportionately affect people who are already vulnerable. Tax carbon emissions and use the money to provide good affordable alternatives (public transportation) for people who don't afford an EV today.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y agoPoor people drive buses, not cars.
- lilililililili 4y ago[dead]
- thecopy 4y agoThis might be true in USA where society have built itself to be almost fully dependent on cars. As a non-american: I have not owned a car in 10 years. You are not forced to have to own a car by some force of nature.
- asdfman123 4y ago> You are not forced to have to own a car Well, no, but > society have built itself to be almost fully dependent on cars
- bluGill 4y agoYou don't state where you live, but odds are good your country is mostly car dependent. Sure transit is useful for a few (10%) of people who live in the city, but if you look at the numbers in almost every country cars are the vast majority of transport if the country is rich enough to afford them. If the country isn't that rich you will see other things, but as they become richer they become car dependent.
- rootusrootus 4y agoFor what it's worth, you might find this list handy the next time you find yourself in a discussion about car dependence and how it varies across the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
- matsemann 4y agoIn much of the world, owning a car at all puts you above "poor people". While owning a car is sadly needed in some parts of the world to get to work or even the stores (US..), it's a massive financial burden for most people. If you care for poor people, thinking about how people can go about their daily lives without spending thousands of dollars each year on owning a car would be the way to go.
- asdfman123 4y agoIf a comment on hackernews seems like it’s only written about the US, then it probably is.
- bluGill 4y agoIf you can afford a car you are not poor. In the US (and Europe) there are almost no poor people. What we call poor are still middle class by world standards.
- adrianmonk 4y agoThis is getting away from the relevant definition of poor. The person above was talking about how people will vote, so what matters here is whether they're poor relative to other voters within their own country.
- nicoburns 4y ago> If you can afford a car you are not poor I'm not sure I agree with this. In many parts of the US or Europe, you could easily be in a position where you can afford a car (and need one for work), but cannot afford housing. It's true that you might well still be well off by world standards (a car roof is still a roof), but I think I'd require "food, clean water, clothing and reliable shelter" to be a bare minimum for "not poor".
- wcoenen 4y agoThe cheap EVs aren't here yet, but the technology has the potential to eventually become cheaper than ICE. 30% of EV cost is currently in the battery, and this will drop.
- rob74 4y agoThis! I mean, we saw the same with computing: the first PCs cost thousands of dollars, but by the start of the nineties they were much more affordable already. Mostly because of technology advances and mass production, but of course also because of moving chip/board production to cheaper countries. Same with mobile phones, smartphones, laptops etc. etc.
- zirgs 4y agoPCs still cost thousands of dollars. If you are interested in AI/machine learning then $2k is the bare minimum.
- 76SlashDolphin 4y agoNah, a GTX 1060 6GB for $100 + any 10-year old i5/i7 is still surprisingly capable for messing about with ML. It's not fast but it gets the job done. Also, getting free compute for messing around in, say, Google Cloud is still pretty easy. If you get to the point where those 2 options become a bottleneck, you're probably informed enough to find work in the field and afford something nicer.
- bluGill 4y agoPeople interested in AI/machine learning are a small niche. Your AI/machine learning computer is about as interesting to most people as large agriculture sprayer is to your average car buyer.
- adrianN 4y agoMy PC cost about 400€ and I'm a professional user. Most people are fine with the capabilities of a Raspberry Pi.
- HopenHeyHi 4y agoPeople don't always manage to vote their interests even if/when they manage to rationally identify what those are. Welcome to politics.
- goodpoint 4y ago> massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) Don't blame EV and or the environment for this. Car culture in the US created unsustainable cities and destroyed public transportation. Car ownership itself has always been a regressive tax.
- jaystraw 4y agoICEs also supplement power grids and enable agriculture. The car is not the centerpiece of fossil fuels helping the poor
- zip1234 4y agoThe very poorest don't even drive and are also disproportionately impacted by pollution from driving. The strata above that buys used cars.
- rootusrootus 4y agoThe poorest folks I know are driving used Bolts. Money talks. Aside from the recent pandemic-fueled car price bubble, compliance EVs were really cheap on the used market.