3 ms·
The real question is: How good were the betting markets?
by Oompa 18y ago
The real question is: How good were the betting markets?
- mattmaroon 18y agoI don't think any of them had more than a few wagers. President, maybe overall Senate control, etc. They all predicted Obama to win, though generally gave him a chance in the low 80s the day before, whereas 538 said 98. It's impossible to tell who was more accurate.
- davidmathers 18y agohttp://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=353182 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=353182 Everyone got IN wrong. MO was almost 50/50, but Nate had it going to McCain and the markets had it going to Obama. Right now, pre-recount, McCain won MO by 0.2%. On the morning of the election the markets flipped IN and gave it to Obama.
- llimllib 18y ago> FiveThirtyEight got Indiana right on Oct 1 from http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/ http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/in... (OTOH, intrade got NC when 538 didn't)
- nihilocrat 18y agoI'm sorry I can't give specific dates, but in some of 538s most recent models (say, the last week of October), Silver was projecting NC as being a very light carolina blue. :)
- davidmathers 18y agoWhy is Oct 1 significant? On the night before the election Nate had IN as a 64% McCain win. Also, Nate, intrade, and betfair all predicted that Obama would win NC. See the link above for all the numerical details.