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> Google doesn't need more smart AI researchers, academics or ethicists. They need product managers who understand the underlying technology and can commerciali

by p-e-w 4y ago

> Google doesn't need more smart AI researchers, academics or ethicists. They need product managers who understand the underlying technology and can commercialize it. Google's revenue is equal to the GDP of New Zealand. Google's cash reserves are sufficient to sustain the company through half a century of bad quarters. Not that they have had any bad quarters, ever. They don't need anything. Their ad business is a donkey that shits gold, with Chrome and Android keeping the competition locked out, and everything else doesn't matter for Google as a company. They've done little more than play around for the last decade, with an endless procession of hyped-then-canceled "products", and it hasn't affected their market dominance in the slightest. They can keep fucking up for the foreseeable future, and it won't really matter. If a startup emerges that appears to have the right approach to AI, Google can simply buy it. Power is power, and everything else is nothing.

jiggawatts 4y ago
Search has virtually no moat to luck customers in. People switched from AltaVista to Google fast! I already use phind.com almost as much as I use Google. A significant percentage of the non-development "queries" that I have, I now ask ChatGPT 4. I'm starting to suspect that within a year, I won't be using Google search much at all. That should terrify everyone at Alphabet Inc.
- p-e-w 4y ago
  Google controls 90% of the browser market, and 70% of the mobile OS market. They can force anything they want down the throats of billions of people, the vast majority of which aren't even aware that there are alternatives. And even those that are aware are in many cases unable to switch, as for example most phones will only run their manufacturer's version of Android, from which Google features usually cannot be completely removed. This isn't even remotely comparable to the AltaVista situation. Google has a planet-scale stranglehold on how half the world's population accesses information. This arguably makes Google more powerful than most nation states. I can guarantee they won't be dislodged by some search startup with a cool idea.
  - jiggawatts 4y ago
    People switched away from Microsoft’s search offerings despite it being the default in Internet Explorer.
  - malwrar 4y ago
    > Google has a planet-scale stranglehold on how half the world's population accesses information …currently. I think OP’s point is that once some better product comes out and e.g. normal people hear about it on tiktok and start switching, it doesn’t seem like Google is institutionally capable of competing. Honestly, considering how much good research they put out, I really hope they don’t.
    - p-e-w 4y ago
      > it doesn’t seem like Google is institutionally capable of competing They don't have to compete. They can just buy any startup that's a potential threat to them, or lobby for laws that would effectively make them illegal. That's what power is, and it's all that matters.
paxys 4y ago
You could have said the same about Compuserve or AOL or IBM or Xerox or HP at some point in their history. Where are all of them now? Every untouchable business inevitably gets disrupted once the company can no longer stay competitive and get ahead of new trends. Same is happening with Google today.
- pas 4y ago
  IBM bought RedHat. And the Watson demo is very similar to the Waymo situation. It works, but no one can use it actually, but sure IBM pushed it for years ruthlessly.
nailer 4y ago
> Their ad business is a donkey that shits gold So was Lotus Notes.
- p-e-w 4y ago
  There is a fundamental difference between some corporate groupware and a system that reaches 60% of all humans alive.
  - nailer 4y ago
    Sure, then use Netscape in your example. Something used to be part of the Internet, and many people was the Internet, and is now irrelevant. Scrolling through search results to answer a question manually instead of simply getting an answer feels like using the Internet from 20 years ago.
    - p-e-w 4y ago
      Netscape was a company during a time when using the Internet was a niche activity. Google is one of the most powerful entities in the history of mankind, with read/write access to the private information of the majority of humans alive. The two aren't comparable. Indeed, there are few entities that are comparable to Google. Google won't use their technological edge to keep potential competitors out, they'll use their financial, social, and political power.
      - nailer 4y ago
        I don’t think they will. And I think like lotus notes running groupware, like windows running the desktop, like novell running the lan, Google will always rule search, and never make the transition into the next thing. The company hasn’t released the significant product in 15 years, despite the huge amount of money they have this will be not be enough to change the culture.

by p-e-w 4y ago

jiggawatts 4y ago

Search has virtually no moat to luck customers in. People switched from AltaVista to Google fast! I already use phind.com almost as much as I use Google. A significant percentage of the non-development "queries" that I have, I now ask ChatGPT 4. I'm starting to suspect that within a year, I won't be using Google search much at all. That should terrify everyone at Alphabet Inc.

p-e-w 4y ago
Google controls 90% of the browser market, and 70% of the mobile OS market. They can force anything they want down the throats of billions of people, the vast majority of which aren't even aware that there are alternatives. And even those that are aware are in many cases unable to switch, as for example most phones will only run their manufacturer's version of Android, from which Google features usually cannot be completely removed. This isn't even remotely comparable to the AltaVista situation. Google has a planet-scale stranglehold on how half the world's population accesses information. This arguably makes Google more powerful than most nation states. I can guarantee they won't be dislodged by some search startup with a cool idea.
- jiggawatts 4y ago
  People switched away from Microsoft’s search offerings despite it being the default in Internet Explorer.
- malwrar 4y ago
  > Google has a planet-scale stranglehold on how half the world's population accesses information …currently. I think OP’s point is that once some better product comes out and e.g. normal people hear about it on tiktok and start switching, it doesn’t seem like Google is institutionally capable of competing. Honestly, considering how much good research they put out, I really hope they don’t.
  - p-e-w 4y ago
    > it doesn’t seem like Google is institutionally capable of competing They don't have to compete. They can just buy any startup that's a potential threat to them, or lobby for laws that would effectively make them illegal. That's what power is, and it's all that matters.

paxys 4y ago

You could have said the same about Compuserve or AOL or IBM or Xerox or HP at some point in their history. Where are all of them now? Every untouchable business inevitably gets disrupted once the company can no longer stay competitive and get ahead of new trends. Same is happening with Google today.

pas 4y ago
IBM bought RedHat. And the Watson demo is very similar to the Waymo situation. It works, but no one can use it actually, but sure IBM pushed it for years ruthlessly.

nailer 4y ago

> Their ad business is a donkey that shits gold So was Lotus Notes.

p-e-w 4y ago
There is a fundamental difference between some corporate groupware and a system that reaches 60% of all humans alive.
- nailer 4y ago
  Sure, then use Netscape in your example. Something used to be part of the Internet, and many people was the Internet, and is now irrelevant. Scrolling through search results to answer a question manually instead of simply getting an answer feels like using the Internet from 20 years ago.
  - p-e-w 4y ago
    Netscape was a company during a time when using the Internet was a niche activity. Google is one of the most powerful entities in the history of mankind, with read/write access to the private information of the majority of humans alive. The two aren't comparable. Indeed, there are few entities that are comparable to Google. Google won't use their technological edge to keep potential competitors out, they'll use their financial, social, and political power.
    - nailer 4y ago
      I don’t think they will. And I think like lotus notes running groupware, like windows running the desktop, like novell running the lan, Google will always rule search, and never make the transition into the next thing. The company hasn’t released the significant product in 15 years, despite the huge amount of money they have this will be not be enough to change the culture.