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> housing costs completely decoupling from fundamentals, Not true in most markets. Compare to build/replacement costs. In a high inflation environment with 30

> housing costs completely decoupling from fundamentals, Not true in most markets. Compare to build/replacement costs. In a high inflation environment with 30+ trillion in national debt and 186 trillion in unfunded liabilities, I'll take my chances with hard assets that are connected to fundamentals like housing. They WILL pivot and print in overdrive. There is no way out at this point. And not just the US, the world cannot handle higher interest rates which causes more demand for the dollar. The entire world is jacked up on eurodollar debt that is not sustainable. And those with the assets will gladly choose inflation over deflation. "Inflation is transitory". "Banks are fine" We're led by morons, shills and thieves.

pydry 3y ago
>The entire world is jacked up on eurodollar debt that is not sustainable 10 years ago this was a far bigger deal as the western game was the only one in town. Nowadays nonaligned countries can pivot to the Russia/China axis and still get resources and manufactured goods.
- exclusiv 3y ago
  Very few countries want to trade in the currencies of Russia or China. But that's besides my point. Getting resources and manufactured goods has nothing to do with my statement about sustainability. Debt to GDP of 338% is not sustainable [1]. It doesn't matter if countries can get resources and manufactured goods. That's like saying - well I have 3X my salary in debt but it's ok... I can buy goods on Amazon.... on more credit, with a higher rate... and still be fine. No you can't. There's about 20 trillion in US denominated debt / eurodollar debt [2] and 65 trillion in unrecorded debt overseas [2]. In order to service US denominated debt, you have to swap your currency to get USD. This is a major problem when you already need to keep printing to service your own unsustainable debt (> 300% debt to gdp), inflation rips on goods and materials you need and tax revenues drop in an economic downturn. When interest rates go up, it squeezes you. Everyone kept rolling debt over in a debt drunk binge fest for decades as it kept getting cheaper and they have been feeling major pain from it going the other way. [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/global-debt-2022-and-other-economy-stories-february-2023/#:~:text=The%20ratio%20of%20global%20debt,points%20to%20250%25%20of%20GDP https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/global-debt-2022-and-.... [2] https://www.bruegel.org/comment/euro-dollar-parity-beyond-symbolism https://www.bruegel.org/comment/euro-dollar-parity-beyond-sy... [3] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank-financial-system-economic/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank...
midoridensha 3y ago
>We're led by morons, shills and thieves. Most of the voters are morons, and are voting for these leaders.
- exclusiv 3y ago
  I don't think that's fair. For example - we have a 2 party system that is designed so only one of them will win. And most people want to vote for someone that has a shot at winning. That doesn't make them morons. They're just picking the least dirty shirt in their minds. Yes, you could say - well they don't vote in the primaries so it's their fault. But the same systems at play in the general elections are the same ones that drive the primaries. If primary voting was 1:1 with general election voting, the system would just adjust to influence accordingly. Who exactly was going to do anything meaningful to save the finances of the US? The best options we've seen have been Ron Paul and Bernie and we saw what happened there. Funding and media are able to influence who wins. If someone says logical things and is anti Fed or even a little anti Wall Street establishment, they are painted out as nut jobs. And it's effective to the public who generally, has no savings and has little time to research like those that live more comfortably. All candidates are all co-opted by special interests. And almost all by the financial system which is the biggest risk. It's not an accident that both red and blue appoint the same people to the Fed, despite fighting aggressive over almost every other nomination and appointment. We also have a huge wealth gap and media divisiveness giving rise to populist candidates. They make it one side versus the other meanwhile they both fleece the financials and economic prosperity that could occur if managed well. We've gone past the point of no return, led by both parties at different times and here we are. Overextended. Huge wealth gap. Ripping inflation. Interest rate hikes that, in my opinion, are just theater as we can't afford to keep hiking them. And as we hike them, the world gets pissed off and moves quicker to a new world currency reserve. No idea when that will happen, could be 10/20/30/40 years. But trade has already started to shift to other currencies. CBDCs are also underway and for everyone's sake, hopefully they don't get adopted.

pydry 3y ago

>The entire world is jacked up on eurodollar debt that is not sustainable 10 years ago this was a far bigger deal as the western game was the only one in town. Nowadays nonaligned countries can pivot to the Russia/China axis and still get resources and manufactured goods.

exclusiv 3y ago
Very few countries want to trade in the currencies of Russia or China. But that's besides my point. Getting resources and manufactured goods has nothing to do with my statement about sustainability. Debt to GDP of 338% is not sustainable [1]. It doesn't matter if countries can get resources and manufactured goods. That's like saying - well I have 3X my salary in debt but it's ok... I can buy goods on Amazon.... on more credit, with a higher rate... and still be fine. No you can't. There's about 20 trillion in US denominated debt / eurodollar debt [2] and 65 trillion in unrecorded debt overseas [2]. In order to service US denominated debt, you have to swap your currency to get USD. This is a major problem when you already need to keep printing to service your own unsustainable debt (> 300% debt to gdp), inflation rips on goods and materials you need and tax revenues drop in an economic downturn. When interest rates go up, it squeezes you. Everyone kept rolling debt over in a debt drunk binge fest for decades as it kept getting cheaper and they have been feeling major pain from it going the other way. [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/global-debt-2022-and-other-economy-stories-february-2023/#:~:text=The%20ratio%20of%20global%20debt,points%20to%20250%25%20of%20GDP https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/global-debt-2022-and-.... [2] https://www.bruegel.org/comment/euro-dollar-parity-beyond-symbolism https://www.bruegel.org/comment/euro-dollar-parity-beyond-sy... [3] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank-financial-system-economic/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank...

midoridensha 3y ago

>We're led by morons, shills and thieves. Most of the voters are morons, and are voting for these leaders.

exclusiv 3y ago
I don't think that's fair. For example - we have a 2 party system that is designed so only one of them will win. And most people want to vote for someone that has a shot at winning. That doesn't make them morons. They're just picking the least dirty shirt in their minds. Yes, you could say - well they don't vote in the primaries so it's their fault. But the same systems at play in the general elections are the same ones that drive the primaries. If primary voting was 1:1 with general election voting, the system would just adjust to influence accordingly. Who exactly was going to do anything meaningful to save the finances of the US? The best options we've seen have been Ron Paul and Bernie and we saw what happened there. Funding and media are able to influence who wins. If someone says logical things and is anti Fed or even a little anti Wall Street establishment, they are painted out as nut jobs. And it's effective to the public who generally, has no savings and has little time to research like those that live more comfortably. All candidates are all co-opted by special interests. And almost all by the financial system which is the biggest risk. It's not an accident that both red and blue appoint the same people to the Fed, despite fighting aggressive over almost every other nomination and appointment. We also have a huge wealth gap and media divisiveness giving rise to populist candidates. They make it one side versus the other meanwhile they both fleece the financials and economic prosperity that could occur if managed well. We've gone past the point of no return, led by both parties at different times and here we are. Overextended. Huge wealth gap. Ripping inflation. Interest rate hikes that, in my opinion, are just theater as we can't afford to keep hiking them. And as we hike them, the world gets pissed off and moves quicker to a new world currency reserve. No idea when that will happen, could be 10/20/30/40 years. But trade has already started to shift to other currencies. CBDCs are also underway and for everyone's sake, hopefully they don't get adopted.