4 ms·
has he open sourced his model for election predictions? I would be curious to see if it outperformed a naive averaging of the major polls.
by utnick 18y ago
has he open sourced his model for election predictions?
I would be curious to see if it outperformed a naive averaging of the major polls.
- robg 18y agoNo, and he probably won't. His baseball projections are based on a proprietary algorithm (PECOTA). They did seem to do better than Pollster which is a naive averaging.
- river_styx 18y agoFrom Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight.com http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight.com): The site compiles polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in baseball sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data"[1] and "weighting each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll."