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Never underestimate a hype bubble ;) The crypto one lasted for many years with far fewer use cases than LLMs, even accounting for hallucinations.
by spacebanana7 4y ago
Never underestimate a hype bubble ;) The crypto one lasted for many years with far fewer use cases than LLMs, even accounting for hallucinations.
- outworlder 4y agoWe don't even have to go to crypto. AI has had many boom/bust cycles. The term "AI Winter" dates back from the 80s! Of course, at every cycle we get new tools. The thing is, once tools become mainstream, people stop referring to them as "AI". Take assistants (Amazon Echo, Cortana, Siri, etc). They are doing things that were active areas of "AI" research not long ago. Voice recognition and text to speech were very hard problems. Now people use them without remembering that they were once AI. I predict that GPT will follow the same cycle. It's way too overhyped right now (because it's impressive, just like Dragon Naturally Speaking was). But people will try to everyday scenarios and – outside of niches – they will be disappointed. Cue crash as investments dry up. Hopefully this time we won't have too many high profile casualties, like what happened with Lisp Machines.
- sharemywin 4y agoI never upgraded to pro and I spent like $2 on credits so far this month. I could easily see them hitting a $1b/yr which to me isn't niche market or a hype bubble.
- spacebanana7 4y agoA large profitable business can still be overpriced or inflated by a bubble. Like Cisco/Intel in the 90s