3 ms·
Haidt's quote leaves out the following explanation: > That doesn't mean I only believe in 3–1 or greater effects. If you can show any 3–1 effect, then I'm prep
by 0xcde4c3db 4y ago
Haidt's quote leaves out the following explanation:
> That doesn't mean I only believe in 3–1 or greater effects. If you can show any 3–1 effect, then I'm prepared to consider lower odds ratios. If teenage girls with heavy social media use are three times as likely to be in the experimental group for depression 12 months later than otherwise similar teenage girls that don't use social media, then I'm prepared to look at evidence that light social media use has a 1.2 odds ratio, or that the odds ratio for suicide attempts is 1.4. But without a 3–1 odds ratio as a foundation, it's my experience that looking at any random data can produce plenty of lesser odds ratios, which seldom stand up.
I found this a little confusing, but I think what Brown is saying is that if all of the effects found in an area of research (not a single study) are small, it's probably not a real phenomenon.
- whats_a_quasar 4y agoI don't think that that explanation makes sense, or actually rebuts the point. If the true odds ratio of the effect being studied is 1.8, I don't know why Brown expects that a study of a 1.8 would ever produce an odds ratio of 3. That would mean the study was terrible - it got the answer badly wrong! Even with this explanation, Brown is effectively saying that any effect with an odds ratio of less than 3 cannot be studied. I don't think that position makes any sense. And also, an odds ratio of 1.4 means social media makes it 40% more likely one will be depressed. That is a massive effect. I don't understand why people are saying these effects are small.