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Wages are not based on absolute productivity but rather on relative productivity. If engineers will become 10x more productive, all companies with engineers wil

Wages are not based on absolute productivity but rather on relative productivity. If engineers will become 10x more productive, all companies with engineers will have this boost, hence the relative productivity stays the same. Think about an operator of a machine in a factory. If the machine is 10x more productive than the operator on its own, will the operator get paid 10x more? I don't think so, because the competing companies also have 10x the productivity. Prices of produced goods will drop but that will not lead to 10x more consumption.

bko 4y ago
There are a lot of businesses that would love to hire engs but it's not profitable for them to do so. If devs were 10x more productive a lot of those businesses would hire devs. Which is exactly why we have things like WordPress developers for small businesses when before it didn't make sense to hire a developer.
- JohnFen 4y ago
  If a business wants to hire a dev but can't afford it, the dev being 10x more productive doesn't make them more affordable unless 1) They're hiring a contractor for 1/10th the hours, and 2) The contractor hasn't increased the per-hour fee to match the increased productivity I mean, sure, it can work out. But it's hard to see how it would do so in enough numbers to actually matter much. > Which is exactly why we have things like WordPress developers for small businesses Right, this is a solved problem. Businesses who don't need a full-time dev hires a contractor. That's how it's always worked. But contractors are expensive. So, either the contractors would reduce their fees (thus falsifying the assertion that AI would increase their pay rate) or those businesses will be paying the same as they've always paid but perhaps getting the finished work sooner than they otherwise would have (thus falsifying the assertion that AI would make this more affordable). Productivity gains can absolutely reduce costs and increase profits, but they do so by getting more work out of people while paying them the same as always.

bko 4y ago

There are a lot of businesses that would love to hire engs but it's not profitable for them to do so. If devs were 10x more productive a lot of those businesses would hire devs. Which is exactly why we have things like WordPress developers for small businesses when before it didn't make sense to hire a developer.

JohnFen 4y ago
If a business wants to hire a dev but can't afford it, the dev being 10x more productive doesn't make them more affordable unless 1) They're hiring a contractor for 1/10th the hours, and 2) The contractor hasn't increased the per-hour fee to match the increased productivity I mean, sure, it can work out. But it's hard to see how it would do so in enough numbers to actually matter much. > Which is exactly why we have things like WordPress developers for small businesses Right, this is a solved problem. Businesses who don't need a full-time dev hires a contractor. That's how it's always worked. But contractors are expensive. So, either the contractors would reduce their fees (thus falsifying the assertion that AI would increase their pay rate) or those businesses will be paying the same as they've always paid but perhaps getting the finished work sooner than they otherwise would have (thus falsifying the assertion that AI would make this more affordable). Productivity gains can absolutely reduce costs and increase profits, but they do so by getting more work out of people while paying them the same as always.