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Why does it feel that so many trends that were "emerging" are now all suddenly converging? I've gone through a lot of macro data and everything from climate cha

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

Why does it feel that so many trends that were "emerging" are now all suddenly converging? I've gone through a lot of macro data and everything from climate change and fertilizers to food and automation and monetary policy seems to be breaking down at the same time. Is there a whitepill scenario for the remaining years in this decade?

Paul-Craft 4y ago
Many people, myself included, think we're headed for global societal collapse. Or, more to the point, things have deteriorated to the point where collapse has already started to happen and is now accelerating, which accounts for the convergence of trends you're seeing.
SuoDuanDao 4y ago
This decade might be asking a lot. This century I like Schmachtenberger's take.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  I've never heard of Schmachtenberger but this is what chatGPT had to say about his take. Accurate? === Daniel Schmachtenberger is a philosopher, systems thinker, and futurist known for his work in global systems change and the development of a more resilient and sustainable civilization. His take on this century can be characterized by the following key points: Existential risks and global catastrophic risks: Schmachtenberger emphasizes that humanity faces a range of existential and global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war, pandemics, climate change, artificial intelligence, and others. He argues that we need to address these risks comprehensively and proactively to ensure a sustainable and thriving future. Game theory and rivalrous dynamics: Schmachtenberger highlights the importance of understanding game theory and the rivalrous dynamics that drive competition and conflict. He argues that many of our current challenges stem from win-lose dynamics that incentivize short-term thinking, self-interest, and resource depletion. Comprehensive sense-making: Schmachtenberger stresses the need for better sense-making and information processing to navigate the complex, interconnected challenges we face. He advocates for interdisciplinary approaches that can provide a more accurate and nuanced understanding of the world. Civilizational resilience: Schmachtenberger advocates for building a more resilient and adaptive civilization by fostering cooperation, developing better decision-making systems, and focusing on long-term, sustainable solutions. A vision for a sustainable and thriving civilization: Schmachtenberger envisions a future where humanity transcends its current challenges and embraces a more cooperative, sustainable, and equitable global society. This includes the development of regenerative economic systems, effective governance structures, and cultural shifts that prioritize collective well-being over individual gain.
  - SuoDuanDao 4y ago
    accurate summary, but that 'vision for sustainable and thriving civilization' involves some rather poetic language which gets overlooked by a 'facts-first' engine like chatgpt. He's the only person I've encountered who seems both realistic and optimistic - albeit that optimism involves some amount of faith in an emergent intelligence greater than any single human is capable of. But he also touches on how individuals can relate to that kind of intelligence, which I find helpful. Hard to paraphrase though - if you're interested I'd recommend you bing his 'butterfly metaphor'.
gretch 4y ago
Maybe things are actually pretty okay, and it’s just the information we get makes it seem like everything is falling apart. Remember Y2K? Everyone thought we would have mass system failure across the world. And while some systems did fail and some people had to work diligently against the clock to make patches, for the most part, it was just okay. I suspect this rice shortage is probably similar to the Y2K situation
- antifa 4y ago
  I don't like the Y2K as an example to this, hubris and overconfidence over solving Y2K might lead us (our leaders, specifically) to dropping the ball on the 2037 problem. And we could have the largest "food rotting in ports" famine of the century. It won't just be the 2037 problem, it'll the last few decades of cutting corners that will build up to this. Anyways, that's wild speculation on my part, maybe all software will be rewritten with 64bit timestamps by an AI by 2036.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  I mean, we just came out of once in a lifetime pandemic...sometimes, things actually do happen.
  - gretch 4y ago
    I’m not saying that rice production won’t be short or that there won’t be some small hiccups, but is it worth the attention of all these lay-people. The news about this rice production is not going to have more of an impact on your personal life than e.g. taking the time to call your mom and tell her you love her. We all sit around worrying about the rice production and don’t actually work on the things that are immediately applicable to all of us.
- pixl97 4y ago
  Remember working really hard to fix those problems before Y2K, because I do. There is nothing wrong that with saying a system is at risk of failing. It gets people to pay attention to the system and to ensure it doesn't fail. It's the systems that we don't pay attention to that can lead to massive loss of life.
michael1999 4y ago
2027 is likely to be better that 2035.

Paul-Craft 4y ago

Many people, myself included, think we're headed for global societal collapse. Or, more to the point, things have deteriorated to the point where collapse has already started to happen and is now accelerating, which accounts for the convergence of trends you're seeing.

SuoDuanDao 4y ago

This decade might be asking a lot. This century I like Schmachtenberger's take.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
I've never heard of Schmachtenberger but this is what chatGPT had to say about his take. Accurate? === Daniel Schmachtenberger is a philosopher, systems thinker, and futurist known for his work in global systems change and the development of a more resilient and sustainable civilization. His take on this century can be characterized by the following key points: Existential risks and global catastrophic risks: Schmachtenberger emphasizes that humanity faces a range of existential and global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war, pandemics, climate change, artificial intelligence, and others. He argues that we need to address these risks comprehensively and proactively to ensure a sustainable and thriving future. Game theory and rivalrous dynamics: Schmachtenberger highlights the importance of understanding game theory and the rivalrous dynamics that drive competition and conflict. He argues that many of our current challenges stem from win-lose dynamics that incentivize short-term thinking, self-interest, and resource depletion. Comprehensive sense-making: Schmachtenberger stresses the need for better sense-making and information processing to navigate the complex, interconnected challenges we face. He advocates for interdisciplinary approaches that can provide a more accurate and nuanced understanding of the world. Civilizational resilience: Schmachtenberger advocates for building a more resilient and adaptive civilization by fostering cooperation, developing better decision-making systems, and focusing on long-term, sustainable solutions. A vision for a sustainable and thriving civilization: Schmachtenberger envisions a future where humanity transcends its current challenges and embraces a more cooperative, sustainable, and equitable global society. This includes the development of regenerative economic systems, effective governance structures, and cultural shifts that prioritize collective well-being over individual gain.
- SuoDuanDao 4y ago
  accurate summary, but that 'vision for sustainable and thriving civilization' involves some rather poetic language which gets overlooked by a 'facts-first' engine like chatgpt. He's the only person I've encountered who seems both realistic and optimistic - albeit that optimism involves some amount of faith in an emergent intelligence greater than any single human is capable of. But he also touches on how individuals can relate to that kind of intelligence, which I find helpful. Hard to paraphrase though - if you're interested I'd recommend you bing his 'butterfly metaphor'.

gretch 4y ago

Maybe things are actually pretty okay, and it’s just the information we get makes it seem like everything is falling apart. Remember Y2K? Everyone thought we would have mass system failure across the world. And while some systems did fail and some people had to work diligently against the clock to make patches, for the most part, it was just okay. I suspect this rice shortage is probably similar to the Y2K situation

antifa 4y ago
I don't like the Y2K as an example to this, hubris and overconfidence over solving Y2K might lead us (our leaders, specifically) to dropping the ball on the 2037 problem. And we could have the largest "food rotting in ports" famine of the century. It won't just be the 2037 problem, it'll the last few decades of cutting corners that will build up to this. Anyways, that's wild speculation on my part, maybe all software will be rewritten with 64bit timestamps by an AI by 2036.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
I mean, we just came out of once in a lifetime pandemic...sometimes, things actually do happen.
- gretch 4y ago
  I’m not saying that rice production won’t be short or that there won’t be some small hiccups, but is it worth the attention of all these lay-people. The news about this rice production is not going to have more of an impact on your personal life than e.g. taking the time to call your mom and tell her you love her. We all sit around worrying about the rice production and don’t actually work on the things that are immediately applicable to all of us.
pixl97 4y ago
Remember working really hard to fix those problems before Y2K, because I do. There is nothing wrong that with saying a system is at risk of failing. It gets people to pay attention to the system and to ensure it doesn't fail. It's the systems that we don't pay attention to that can lead to massive loss of life.

michael1999 4y ago

2027 is likely to be better that 2035.