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The IMF is using the countries' own claims and numbers for their calculations. Russia's own economic numbers have been unreliable since Covid hit and blatantly

by 0xDEF 4y ago

The IMF is using the countries' own claims and numbers for their calculations. Russia's own economic numbers have been unreliable since Covid hit and blatantly cooked up since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This paper gives a more correct view on the dire state of the Russian economy: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

thriftwy 4y ago
That article is almost a year old now. Where's the collapse?
- pixl97 4y ago
  In just about every one of their industries... A fair part of Russian economic 'growth' is in military supplies. When you are attacking another country and looking at almost no gains in the end this is a disaster of epic levels. If you have a gain in the end you can justify the expense in the revenue from the spoils you captured. At it's current rate Russia is looking like it will get none of that. It will not gain any new territory. It will lose massive amounts of equipment and personnel directly. It has lost massive numbers of better off people that left the country. This is a demographic and economic nightmare, that keeps getting worse when you look at the preconditions. Before the war Russia was making huge amounts selling natural resources, but was already running into problems funding its retirement (something Putin said he'd never touch when he was first elected). Well in the past few years Putin did have to raise the retirement age and tried to reduce the retirement benefits which was causing massive problems internally. Now that problem is even worse and puts Russia at risk of complete internal collapse.
  - somenameforme 4y ago
    You can take a stroll about Moscow anytime you fancy. Search a video site for something like "прогулка по москве 2023". That simply means 'a walk around Moscow 2023.' Here's [1] one from 5 days ago. One could describe what you see in many ways, but a complete economic collapse is probably not one of them. As for the war, look at the leaks; you're expected to. That's why they're not being given the Twitter Files treatment. There was a conscious decision to cover them and regularly emphasize points such as the predictions for Ukraine's counter offensive. Watch how the media narrative on Ukraine is (and will continue to) suddenly shift. We seem to be hitting that 'lab leak' "messaging" inflection point with Ukraine. The Washington Post is now even running an opinion piece suggesting NATO could bypass Ukraine and directly negotiate with Russia, making some substantial concessions, in an effort to try to end the war. [2] The problem with pensions is mostly about fertility. Like most of the developed world, Russia's fertility rate is abysmal. So you have an ever-growing group of older individuals who are supposed to be supported by an ever smaller group of younger individuals. It's the reason retirement ages are going up everywhere. Russia increased theirs from 60 to 65. In the US and Norway full retirement is 67, France just bumped theirs from 62 to 64, and so on. In low fertility countries, rich and poor alike, expect retirement age to gradually approach life expectancy. A sub-replacement fertility means there is no equilibrium point. Your youth population is constantly shrinking, and trending towards zero. Of course bloody wars aren't helping on this front. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tD1crjaeYQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tD1crjaeYQ [2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/19/nato-could-negotiate-with-russia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/19/nato-coul...

by 0xDEF 4y ago

thriftwy 4y ago

That article is almost a year old now. Where's the collapse?

pixl97 4y ago
In just about every one of their industries... A fair part of Russian economic 'growth' is in military supplies. When you are attacking another country and looking at almost no gains in the end this is a disaster of epic levels. If you have a gain in the end you can justify the expense in the revenue from the spoils you captured. At it's current rate Russia is looking like it will get none of that. It will not gain any new territory. It will lose massive amounts of equipment and personnel directly. It has lost massive numbers of better off people that left the country. This is a demographic and economic nightmare, that keeps getting worse when you look at the preconditions. Before the war Russia was making huge amounts selling natural resources, but was already running into problems funding its retirement (something Putin said he'd never touch when he was first elected). Well in the past few years Putin did have to raise the retirement age and tried to reduce the retirement benefits which was causing massive problems internally. Now that problem is even worse and puts Russia at risk of complete internal collapse.
- somenameforme 4y ago
  You can take a stroll about Moscow anytime you fancy. Search a video site for something like "прогулка по москве 2023". That simply means 'a walk around Moscow 2023.' Here's [1] one from 5 days ago. One could describe what you see in many ways, but a complete economic collapse is probably not one of them. As for the war, look at the leaks; you're expected to. That's why they're not being given the Twitter Files treatment. There was a conscious decision to cover them and regularly emphasize points such as the predictions for Ukraine's counter offensive. Watch how the media narrative on Ukraine is (and will continue to) suddenly shift. We seem to be hitting that 'lab leak' "messaging" inflection point with Ukraine. The Washington Post is now even running an opinion piece suggesting NATO could bypass Ukraine and directly negotiate with Russia, making some substantial concessions, in an effort to try to end the war. [2] The problem with pensions is mostly about fertility. Like most of the developed world, Russia's fertility rate is abysmal. So you have an ever-growing group of older individuals who are supposed to be supported by an ever smaller group of younger individuals. It's the reason retirement ages are going up everywhere. Russia increased theirs from 60 to 65. In the US and Norway full retirement is 67, France just bumped theirs from 62 to 64, and so on. In low fertility countries, rich and poor alike, expect retirement age to gradually approach life expectancy. A sub-replacement fertility means there is no equilibrium point. Your youth population is constantly shrinking, and trending towards zero. Of course bloody wars aren't helping on this front. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tD1crjaeYQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tD1crjaeYQ [2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/19/nato-could-negotiate-with-russia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/19/nato-coul...