One thing I could think of spontaniously is this: Ukraine is exporting less (they seemed to recover, but markets and the bullwhip effect don't care rigjt away),

One thing I could think of spontaniously is this: Ukraine is exporting less (they seemed to recover, but markets and the bullwhip effect don't care rigjt away), so shortfall of Ukrainian grain has to be compensated and rice is one such alternative. As a result some of the grain shortages are causing rice shortages. Throw in problems in China and the situation gets really confusing and complex.