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The sanctions didn’t fail. They probably complicated the oil transport logistics a lot. There’s been stories of how uninsured Russian tankers offload oil bear G

by f6v 4y ago

The sanctions didn’t fail. They probably complicated the oil transport logistics a lot. There’s been stories of how uninsured Russian tankers offload oil bear Gibraltar. Then the oil goes somewhere in China(or India). I suppose it’s going to find its way back to Europe as “Indian diesel”. So, exactly as you describe. But all of this should add costs even if the crude oil prices are at the proposed ceiling. Who lost? Russia and the EU. But who said that wasn’t the plan.

qbasic_forever 4y ago
It's been a year, where is this collapse of the Russian economy? It looks like they're doing just fine and can continue to wage war near indefinitely. What are the sanctions even doing at this point??
- f6v 4y ago
  The sanctions were supposed to sever the ties between Russia and the EU. That worked perfectly. Same as the refugee crisis. The two most active supporters of Ukraine(USA and UK) take almost no refugees from Ukraine. It’s the EU that suffers from having to support them.
  - qbasic_forever 4y ago
    What? The US has taken an enormous amount of Ukraine refugees: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/us-admits-271000-ukrainian-refugees-russia-invasion-biden-rcna72177 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/us-admits-27100... 271,000! That's over double their goal of 100k! They explicitly got rid of refugee restrictions put in place at the start of the pandemic so they could let in Ukraine refugees.
    - f6v 4y ago
      Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia combined took twice more than that. 271k is nothing for US given their role in the conflict.
      - qbasic_forever 4y ago
        Those countries are next door to Ukraine, a refugee can literally walk to them vs. someone paying for a plane flight to the US. Of course neighboring countries will have more refugees...
        f6v 4y ago
        A refugee can pay literally 200 EUR and fly to US from Warsaw. I assure you many paid up to two orders of magnitude more just to flee the county. It’s about the local laws put in place. The EU takes refugees with almost no preconditions. Maybe that’s why the EU leaders try to come up with a peace plan once in a while, unlike UK or US.
      - ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
        "given their role in the conflict" is pretty ambiguous, if you're referring to russia's war on, and latest genocide of, Ukraine could you elaborate on what role you're speaking of, and why you personally think it makes the admittances below your standards?
        f6v 4y ago
        Go bait somewhere else, mate. Your question has nothing to do with the topic we’re discussing.
        ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
        your post would be a good response to yourself mate, as your opinion of the US's "role in the conflict" has nothing to do with the topic we're discussing and seems to be bait
        f6v 4y ago
        You’re free to just walk past by. Nobody forced you to respond.
- loeg 4y ago
  The Russian economy absolutely cratered when sanctions were rolled out. What are you talking about? https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanct...
  - qbasic_forever 4y ago
    Russia has bounced back and are continuing to wage war just fine despite the sanctions. What is the point of them now?
    - loeg 4y ago
      I don't think Russia has "bounced back." And coloring their war-making ability as "just fine" erases all differentiation in cost and effectiveness caused by sanctions. > What is the point of them now? I mean, I think they still impose cost and hinder Russia's war-making ability. So it's good to keep them if you like that impact? You have also moved the goalposts some from upthread[1]: > The sanctions have failed to do anything. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35628560 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35628560
    - simonh 4y ago
      Sanctions are greatly increasing the cost of the war to Russia, and reducing their industrial capacity to wage it. Their rate of shelling as been falling steadily, and they are losing armoured vehicles at twice their replacement rate. Their spring offensive was so futile there was actually a lot of confusion about whether they actually launched it yet. They had, and it got massacred. Easing sanctions would greatly increase the rate at which they could produce military equipment, particularly high tech guided munitions. That would equal more dead Ukrainians.
    - pixl97 4y ago
      >just fine Whaaa? Russia is sending T-55s to their front to deal with massive material losses. The losses are closer to the numbers we'd expect in WWII, not a local border war where they are the attacker. You are watching Putin fight to keep alive (note, not keep Russia alive) at this point. Bakmut will go down in history has Putin's mad king moment.
fwungy 4y ago
Russia has $75T in known resource reserves. The US is second at $45T. Do you really think Russia can't afford to insure oil tankers if the West refuses to do it?
- badpun 4y ago
  It's not about "afford" (insurance is, after all, a profit-generating business), it's about being able to.
  - fwungy 4y ago
    They have the resources to make their own insurance company.
    - badpun 4y ago
      The question is, will this company be recognized by all required players (ports, authorities etc.). If you're insuring something worth hundreds of millions of dollars, you really want the insurance company to meet certain standards, and have a good reputation of paying out. Can Russian achieve that? Probably. Can they do it quickly? That sounds much trickier.
      - fwungy 4y ago
        If Russia doesn't back its insurance it loses credibility around the world. Russia is a major player in the oil world. It has the relationships and experience to manage this.
- pixl97 4y ago
  Russia is massively underdeveloped. It would take a few trillion dollars in funding just to extract a relatively small fraction of those known resources. They are also massively under populated. They do not have the financial nor the human capital to even extract a 1/10th of that wealth in their current state. China had invested a lot in Russia in the Belt and Roads initiative to extract natural resources, and it is looking like Russia will default on those loans.

by f6v 4y ago

qbasic_forever 4y ago

It's been a year, where is this collapse of the Russian economy? It looks like they're doing just fine and can continue to wage war near indefinitely. What are the sanctions even doing at this point??

f6v 4y ago
The sanctions were supposed to sever the ties between Russia and the EU. That worked perfectly. Same as the refugee crisis. The two most active supporters of Ukraine(USA and UK) take almost no refugees from Ukraine. It’s the EU that suffers from having to support them.
- qbasic_forever 4y ago
  What? The US has taken an enormous amount of Ukraine refugees: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/us-admits-271000-ukrainian-refugees-russia-invasion-biden-rcna72177 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/us-admits-27100... 271,000! That's over double their goal of 100k! They explicitly got rid of refugee restrictions put in place at the start of the pandemic so they could let in Ukraine refugees.
  - f6v 4y ago
    Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia combined took twice more than that. 271k is nothing for US given their role in the conflict.
    - qbasic_forever 4y ago
      Those countries are next door to Ukraine, a refugee can literally walk to them vs. someone paying for a plane flight to the US. Of course neighboring countries will have more refugees...
      - f6v 4y ago
        A refugee can pay literally 200 EUR and fly to US from Warsaw. I assure you many paid up to two orders of magnitude more just to flee the county. It’s about the local laws put in place. The EU takes refugees with almost no preconditions. Maybe that’s why the EU leaders try to come up with a peace plan once in a while, unlike UK or US.
    - ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
      "given their role in the conflict" is pretty ambiguous, if you're referring to russia's war on, and latest genocide of, Ukraine could you elaborate on what role you're speaking of, and why you personally think it makes the admittances below your standards?
      - f6v 4y ago
        Go bait somewhere else, mate. Your question has nothing to do with the topic we’re discussing.
        ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
        your post would be a good response to yourself mate, as your opinion of the US's "role in the conflict" has nothing to do with the topic we're discussing and seems to be bait
        f6v 4y ago
        You’re free to just walk past by. Nobody forced you to respond.
loeg 4y ago
The Russian economy absolutely cratered when sanctions were rolled out. What are you talking about? https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanct...
- qbasic_forever 4y ago
  Russia has bounced back and are continuing to wage war just fine despite the sanctions. What is the point of them now?
  - loeg 4y ago
    I don't think Russia has "bounced back." And coloring their war-making ability as "just fine" erases all differentiation in cost and effectiveness caused by sanctions. > What is the point of them now? I mean, I think they still impose cost and hinder Russia's war-making ability. So it's good to keep them if you like that impact? You have also moved the goalposts some from upthread[1]: > The sanctions have failed to do anything. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35628560 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35628560
  - simonh 4y ago
    Sanctions are greatly increasing the cost of the war to Russia, and reducing their industrial capacity to wage it. Their rate of shelling as been falling steadily, and they are losing armoured vehicles at twice their replacement rate. Their spring offensive was so futile there was actually a lot of confusion about whether they actually launched it yet. They had, and it got massacred. Easing sanctions would greatly increase the rate at which they could produce military equipment, particularly high tech guided munitions. That would equal more dead Ukrainians.
  - pixl97 4y ago
    >just fine Whaaa? Russia is sending T-55s to their front to deal with massive material losses. The losses are closer to the numbers we'd expect in WWII, not a local border war where they are the attacker. You are watching Putin fight to keep alive (note, not keep Russia alive) at this point. Bakmut will go down in history has Putin's mad king moment.

fwungy 4y ago

Russia has $75T in known resource reserves. The US is second at $45T. Do you really think Russia can't afford to insure oil tankers if the West refuses to do it?

badpun 4y ago
It's not about "afford" (insurance is, after all, a profit-generating business), it's about being able to.
- fwungy 4y ago
  They have the resources to make their own insurance company.
  - badpun 4y ago
    The question is, will this company be recognized by all required players (ports, authorities etc.). If you're insuring something worth hundreds of millions of dollars, you really want the insurance company to meet certain standards, and have a good reputation of paying out. Can Russian achieve that? Probably. Can they do it quickly? That sounds much trickier.
    - fwungy 4y ago
      If Russia doesn't back its insurance it loses credibility around the world. Russia is a major player in the oil world. It has the relationships and experience to manage this.
pixl97 4y ago
Russia is massively underdeveloped. It would take a few trillion dollars in funding just to extract a relatively small fraction of those known resources. They are also massively under populated. They do not have the financial nor the human capital to even extract a 1/10th of that wealth in their current state. China had invested a lot in Russia in the Belt and Roads initiative to extract natural resources, and it is looking like Russia will default on those loans.