So there's a big long video by Petar Zeihan at the Iowa Pork Conference but the TL;DR is that the Ukraine and Russia are 2 or the world's 3 leading producers of

So there's a big long video by Petar Zeihan at the Iowa Pork Conference but the TL;DR is that the Ukraine and Russia are 2 or the world's 3 leading producers of nitrogen. This is a critical component of fertilizer. Because of fertilizer we weren't just able to make land good for crops better for crops we were able to make land that was marginal for crops good for crops. Because of this we could farm a lot more land; however with less fertilizer suddenly that land can't be farmed. What this means is less arable land = less food. As a result the supply decreases while demand increases, leading to a price increase. So yes it is a real excuse, and the problem is that many nations in the world import more than 50% of their calories and almost no nations on earth are calorically self sufficient.