4 ms·

1-2 years sounds about right for ChatGPT 5. Nobody can predict the future. But I think we have enough experience with AI trends now to see where this is going.

1-2 years sounds about right for ChatGPT 5. Nobody can predict the future. But I think we have enough experience with AI trends now to see where this is going. Current LLMs are like the mainframes of the 1960s. When the technology gets speeded up, streamlined, and wrist-watched we're going to be in completely unknown territory - culturally, politically, economically, and socially. Never mind technically.

Hedepig 4y ago
Maybe, but really we don't know what the shape of the curve until we actually find the limit. I think you're right, but history has plenty of technological dead-ends, particularly in the AI/ML world
ska 4y ago
Alternatively, we're approaching the limits of what can be done with current approaches, and get mostly stuck there for 20 years like happened to AI in the 80's. Future prediction is always dodgy.
- pixl97 4y ago
  This would really be the best case scenario... I hope you don't plan for best case scenarios when doing your database backups, much less the future of society on earth.
  - anthlax 4y ago
    FTFY: Worst case scenario. Change will come eventually and it will be painful. But I don’t want my kids to deal with it - I’d rather take it head on and deal with the consequences then praying that we push it to the next generation.
- heurist 4y ago
  Even if nothing changes from here, we have already just crossed a civilization-transforming threshold in machine intelligence.
  - croes 4y ago
    Intelligence? More a chinese room.
croes 4y ago
>When the technology gets speeded up If not when. At a certain point OpenAI and others could need more and more training data for less quality increase. VR and AR were also a hype. The headsets just need to become as small as normal glasses, could be impossible without sacrificing crucial features like color space or resolution. Meta invested billions but their best headset is still bulky with smartphone quality graphics.
toastmaster11 4y ago
Another perspective, wouldn’t it be reasonable to believe that the faster a technology is developed, the faster it will reach its theoretical upper limit of improvement (assuming there is one)? To use your comparison as an example, mainframes took 40ish years to be replaced by personal computing and distributed systems. Whereas smartphones reached modern parity in 8-10 years since the original iPhone and have made more or less incremental changes since. Granted those are hardware changes and this is software but I believe the point still stands.

Hedepig 4y ago

Maybe, but really we don't know what the shape of the curve until we actually find the limit. I think you're right, but history has plenty of technological dead-ends, particularly in the AI/ML world

ska 4y ago

Alternatively, we're approaching the limits of what can be done with current approaches, and get mostly stuck there for 20 years like happened to AI in the 80's. Future prediction is always dodgy.

pixl97 4y ago
This would really be the best case scenario... I hope you don't plan for best case scenarios when doing your database backups, much less the future of society on earth.
- anthlax 4y ago
  FTFY: Worst case scenario. Change will come eventually and it will be painful. But I don’t want my kids to deal with it - I’d rather take it head on and deal with the consequences then praying that we push it to the next generation.
heurist 4y ago
Even if nothing changes from here, we have already just crossed a civilization-transforming threshold in machine intelligence.
- croes 4y ago
  Intelligence? More a chinese room.

croes 4y ago

>When the technology gets speeded up If not when. At a certain point OpenAI and others could need more and more training data for less quality increase. VR and AR were also a hype. The headsets just need to become as small as normal glasses, could be impossible without sacrificing crucial features like color space or resolution. Meta invested billions but their best headset is still bulky with smartphone quality graphics.

toastmaster11 4y ago

Another perspective, wouldn’t it be reasonable to believe that the faster a technology is developed, the faster it will reach its theoretical upper limit of improvement (assuming there is one)? To use your comparison as an example, mainframes took 40ish years to be replaced by personal computing and distributed systems. Whereas smartphones reached modern parity in 8-10 years since the original iPhone and have made more or less incremental changes since. Granted those are hardware changes and this is software but I believe the point still stands.