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We need to admit that we don‘t know what‘s happening. Nobody can reasonably predict the future. For the next two years nothing is worthless. That‘s for sure. P

by quonn 4y ago

We need to admit that we don‘t know what‘s happening. Nobody can reasonably predict the future. For the next two years nothing is worthless. That‘s for sure. Probably for longer. Nobody knows.

booleandilemma 4y ago
So do I take out the 30-year mortgage or...?
- quonn 4y ago
  This is a valid point. I‘m in a similar position and try to pay it off faster. However my point stands. We don‘t know. This kind of uncertainty is uncomfortable but it‘s best to ignore it. Forget about ChatGPT until you have seen the industry change. edit: I would also argue to keep investing in yourself. What else is there to do? If AI gets to the point of replacing developers it will equally affect most office jobs. If you want to be a builder you can become that later. Everyone else would and the economy would likely collapse. We‘ll see when we get there. Imagine an uber or taxi driver reading about self-driving cars in 2010 and dropping everything. Yet, a decade later uber is the same. Most likely it will be the same in 5 years. Even if self-driving cars arrive it will take until 2030 or 2035 for them to be widely used.
- bdcravens 4y ago
  I did, at age 45. Will I be around when I'm 75? Will I be working in 10 years? No idea.
- coldpie 4y ago
  Sure. The advice is the same as it ever was: spend well below your means, build up a savings buffer (>= 6 months of expenses), eliminate debt ASAP. The advice is what it is, exactly for situations like the ones you're imagining. No need to put your life on hold.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - SirMaster 4y ago
    "eliminate debt ASAP" This doesn't seem like the best advice IMO. Debt is like one of the best tools that exists to grow your wealth.
    - coldpie 4y ago
      That's fair. I'm viewing it from the perspective of how to protect one's self from sudden & possibly long-term job loss, where I think there's a lot of value in having one less thing hanging over your head during a stressful time. But building an even bigger buffer to further weather that period is a fine strategy, too.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
13years 4y ago
> For the next two years nothing is worthless. More like many things will become obsolete, but becoming worthless is a longer slower process as existing methods are phased out.
TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
1-2 years sounds about right for ChatGPT 5. Nobody can predict the future. But I think we have enough experience with AI trends now to see where this is going. Current LLMs are like the mainframes of the 1960s. When the technology gets speeded up, streamlined, and wrist-watched we're going to be in completely unknown territory - culturally, politically, economically, and socially. Never mind technically.
- Hedepig 4y ago
  Maybe, but really we don't know what the shape of the curve until we actually find the limit. I think you're right, but history has plenty of technological dead-ends, particularly in the AI/ML world
- ska 4y ago
  Alternatively, we're approaching the limits of what can be done with current approaches, and get mostly stuck there for 20 years like happened to AI in the 80's. Future prediction is always dodgy.
  - pixl97 4y ago
    This would really be the best case scenario... I hope you don't plan for best case scenarios when doing your database backups, much less the future of society on earth.
    - anthlax 4y ago
      FTFY: Worst case scenario. Change will come eventually and it will be painful. But I don’t want my kids to deal with it - I’d rather take it head on and deal with the consequences then praying that we push it to the next generation.
  - heurist 4y ago
    Even if nothing changes from here, we have already just crossed a civilization-transforming threshold in machine intelligence.
ducharmdev 4y ago
This is the only sane reply, IMO. When we can't admit this, either fear or a reflexive optimistism takes over our thinking as we try to guess at the future. And articles like this simply stoke these emotions further, benefitting the author with clicks while leaving people more anxious about their lack of knowledge about the future.

by quonn 4y ago

We need to admit that we don‘t know what‘s happening. Nobody can reasonably predict the future. For the next two years nothing is worthless. That‘s for sure. Probably for longer. Nobody knows.

booleandilemma 4y ago

So do I take out the 30-year mortgage or...?

quonn 4y ago
This is a valid point. I‘m in a similar position and try to pay it off faster. However my point stands. We don‘t know. This kind of uncertainty is uncomfortable but it‘s best to ignore it. Forget about ChatGPT until you have seen the industry change. edit: I would also argue to keep investing in yourself. What else is there to do? If AI gets to the point of replacing developers it will equally affect most office jobs. If you want to be a builder you can become that later. Everyone else would and the economy would likely collapse. We‘ll see when we get there. Imagine an uber or taxi driver reading about self-driving cars in 2010 and dropping everything. Yet, a decade later uber is the same. Most likely it will be the same in 5 years. Even if self-driving cars arrive it will take until 2030 or 2035 for them to be widely used.
bdcravens 4y ago
I did, at age 45. Will I be around when I'm 75? Will I be working in 10 years? No idea.
coldpie 4y ago
Sure. The advice is the same as it ever was: spend well below your means, build up a savings buffer (>= 6 months of expenses), eliminate debt ASAP. The advice is what it is, exactly for situations like the ones you're imagining. No need to put your life on hold.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- SirMaster 4y ago
  "eliminate debt ASAP" This doesn't seem like the best advice IMO. Debt is like one of the best tools that exists to grow your wealth.
  - coldpie 4y ago
    That's fair. I'm viewing it from the perspective of how to protect one's self from sudden & possibly long-term job loss, where I think there's a lot of value in having one less thing hanging over your head during a stressful time. But building an even bigger buffer to further weather that period is a fine strategy, too.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]

13years 4y ago

> For the next two years nothing is worthless. More like many things will become obsolete, but becoming worthless is a longer slower process as existing methods are phased out.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago

1-2 years sounds about right for ChatGPT 5. Nobody can predict the future. But I think we have enough experience with AI trends now to see where this is going. Current LLMs are like the mainframes of the 1960s. When the technology gets speeded up, streamlined, and wrist-watched we're going to be in completely unknown territory - culturally, politically, economically, and socially. Never mind technically.

Hedepig 4y ago
Maybe, but really we don't know what the shape of the curve until we actually find the limit. I think you're right, but history has plenty of technological dead-ends, particularly in the AI/ML world
ska 4y ago
Alternatively, we're approaching the limits of what can be done with current approaches, and get mostly stuck there for 20 years like happened to AI in the 80's. Future prediction is always dodgy.
- pixl97 4y ago
  This would really be the best case scenario... I hope you don't plan for best case scenarios when doing your database backups, much less the future of society on earth.
  - anthlax 4y ago
    FTFY: Worst case scenario. Change will come eventually and it will be painful. But I don’t want my kids to deal with it - I’d rather take it head on and deal with the consequences then praying that we push it to the next generation.
- heurist 4y ago
  Even if nothing changes from here, we have already just crossed a civilization-transforming threshold in machine intelligence.

ducharmdev 4y ago

This is the only sane reply, IMO. When we can't admit this, either fear or a reflexive optimistism takes over our thinking as we try to guess at the future. And articles like this simply stoke these emotions further, benefitting the author with clicks while leaving people more anxious about their lack of knowledge about the future.