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Nobody who professionally designs and writes software AND has used LLM code generation tools sees this as a drop-in replacement for developers, generally, anyti

Nobody who professionally designs and writes software AND has used LLM code generation tools sees this as a drop-in replacement for developers, generally, anytime soon. That stance is for overeager, credulous enthusiasts and doomsdayers jumping to conclusions. Similarly, nobody who professionally designs and creates complex art products sees this as a drop-in replacement for commercial artists anytime soon. That stance is for people dazzled by their new image-generation superpower who don't know how little they know about professional creative work. I doubt the markets for utility-grade code work (e.g. customizing existing WordPress themes) or low-effort, high-volume creative assets (template-based logos, lightly customized game sprites) will survive. They're still real people with lives and families and medical bills and mortgages and we really ought to get serious about worker protections in this country. Seriously.

valray 4y ago
In a few years, as mid-level cognitive tasks get automated by LLMs, resulting in elimination of some percent of well-paying white-collar jobs, there will be economic dislocation and social disruption. Oligarchic capitalist societies with a hypocritical philosophy of free market economics (such as the USA) will experience social unrest and civil strife. In the meantime, social-democratic societies that have effective governance and can grow their safety net with universal basic income will be advantaged in this new economic order. Thinking Scandinavian and some Asian economies. The geopolitical balance of power will shift toward stable societies that are able to make the conceptual leap to UBI. Others who follow the primitive fantasy of free market economics will crumble and get left behind. At least that is how it looks right now.
- chefandy 4y ago
  Maybe. I don't see any reason to assume the US won't continue to successfully a) escalate police power to keep citizens under control, b) continue giving people just enough crumbs to keep them from getting violent, and c) propagandize the hell out of the idea that societal mismanagement is a matter of personal responsibility. China has done pretty well while clamping down on civil liberties, and the US has always been better at obfuscating and spinning similar tactics to be more palatable to its citizens. And you only need to look at the rust belt to see what happens when US business leadership decides to follow the cheaper option. Though, regardless of ensuing social unrest, the fact that the people involved are human beings should be enough to not treat them like used condoms when computers figure out how to do their jobs. Should be.

valray 4y ago

In a few years, as mid-level cognitive tasks get automated by LLMs, resulting in elimination of some percent of well-paying white-collar jobs, there will be economic dislocation and social disruption. Oligarchic capitalist societies with a hypocritical philosophy of free market economics (such as the USA) will experience social unrest and civil strife. In the meantime, social-democratic societies that have effective governance and can grow their safety net with universal basic income will be advantaged in this new economic order. Thinking Scandinavian and some Asian economies. The geopolitical balance of power will shift toward stable societies that are able to make the conceptual leap to UBI. Others who follow the primitive fantasy of free market economics will crumble and get left behind. At least that is how it looks right now.

chefandy 4y ago
Maybe. I don't see any reason to assume the US won't continue to successfully a) escalate police power to keep citizens under control, b) continue giving people just enough crumbs to keep them from getting violent, and c) propagandize the hell out of the idea that societal mismanagement is a matter of personal responsibility. China has done pretty well while clamping down on civil liberties, and the US has always been better at obfuscating and spinning similar tactics to be more palatable to its citizens. And you only need to look at the rust belt to see what happens when US business leadership decides to follow the cheaper option. Though, regardless of ensuing social unrest, the fact that the people involved are human beings should be enough to not treat them like used condoms when computers figure out how to do their jobs. Should be.