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> The hype that LLMs are going to replace SWEs is clearly just that, hype LLMs cannot replace anyone, but it is clear that engineers which master LLMs usage

> The hype that LLMs are going to replace SWEs is clearly just that, hype LLMs cannot replace anyone, but it is clear that engineers which master LLMs usage might multiply their productivity by a lot. The question is: If one LLM assisted engineer can work 10x faster, will companies reduce their engineer staff by 90%?

majormajor 4y ago
I've worked at far more companies with miles of product idea backlog we never get to than ones with nothing for engineering to do. Now product will be able to use an LLM to come up with feature proposals and design docs even faster! :o So: are you working at a company where engineering is a cost center or a revenue center? The latter wants to get more done at the same cost much more than it wants to just cut spend.
- abhibeckert 4y ago
  I'm working at a company where we perpetually don't have enough engineers and we've learned (the hard way) that adding more tends to make the problem worse (too many cooks). Copilot helps a lot with that. I can write `// check if em` and it will finish the comment (email is valid) and write the actual check. It's a massive productivity boost. I'm spending less time looking stuff up (what was that function name again?) and less time fixing typos/basic syntax errors. Copilot doesn't always know the function name, but it does more often than me. And it makes errors too, but again less often than me (also, because I'm reading the code, not typing it, I tend to see the error immediately without needing to test it).
nuancebydefault 4y ago
To answer your question with a question if I may -- when did productivity increase in software ever result in headcount reduction? The competition also will have similar productivity gain.
- MacsHeadroom 4y ago
  >when did productivity increase in software ever result in headcount reduction? The competition also will have similar productivity gain. The average AI company has like 1 employee per $25M valuation. That's around 25x fewer employees than the typical tech company.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- quirkot 4y ago
  There used to be a profession called "typist" where a skilled person would type up your dictation quickly and without wasting sheets of paper from typewriter error. Now it's all software There used to be mailrooms filled with people sorting and delivering physical envelopes. Now it's all software.
  - nuancebydefault 4y ago
    You are right. Sorry, i meant headcount of software staff.
riwsky 4y ago
> The question is: If one LLM assisted engineer can work 10x faster, will companies reduce their engineer staff by 90%? What did you think “replacing SWEs” means?

majormajor 4y ago

I've worked at far more companies with miles of product idea backlog we never get to than ones with nothing for engineering to do. Now product will be able to use an LLM to come up with feature proposals and design docs even faster! :o So: are you working at a company where engineering is a cost center or a revenue center? The latter wants to get more done at the same cost much more than it wants to just cut spend.

abhibeckert 4y ago
I'm working at a company where we perpetually don't have enough engineers and we've learned (the hard way) that adding more tends to make the problem worse (too many cooks). Copilot helps a lot with that. I can write `// check if em` and it will finish the comment (email is valid) and write the actual check. It's a massive productivity boost. I'm spending less time looking stuff up (what was that function name again?) and less time fixing typos/basic syntax errors. Copilot doesn't always know the function name, but it does more often than me. And it makes errors too, but again less often than me (also, because I'm reading the code, not typing it, I tend to see the error immediately without needing to test it).

nuancebydefault 4y ago

To answer your question with a question if I may -- when did productivity increase in software ever result in headcount reduction? The competition also will have similar productivity gain.

MacsHeadroom 4y ago
>when did productivity increase in software ever result in headcount reduction? The competition also will have similar productivity gain. The average AI company has like 1 employee per $25M valuation. That's around 25x fewer employees than the typical tech company.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
quirkot 4y ago
There used to be a profession called "typist" where a skilled person would type up your dictation quickly and without wasting sheets of paper from typewriter error. Now it's all software There used to be mailrooms filled with people sorting and delivering physical envelopes. Now it's all software.
- nuancebydefault 4y ago
  You are right. Sorry, i meant headcount of software staff.

riwsky 4y ago

> The question is: If one LLM assisted engineer can work 10x faster, will companies reduce their engineer staff by 90%? What did you think “replacing SWEs” means?