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Reality says we have more Job openings than ever and the lowest unemployment rate. I can't find a decent plumber, lawn mower, handyman or a doctor. If the econ

Reality says we have more Job openings than ever and the lowest unemployment rate. I can't find a decent plumber, lawn mower, handyman or a doctor. If the economic incentives pushes artists to acquire skills that are useful to society then we should accelerate that process rather than artificially propping up their skills with debt we can't service. There will be a time for UBI, but that day hasn't come (Unemployment and Job Openings will be a clear indicator) of that. Imagine if we propped up textile workers or blacksmith or shoe repairer just like we are planning to prop up artists, the world would be much worse. Today anyone born in a Western Democracy has access to basic needs -- food, shelter, knowledge without having to do anything.

dangerwill 3y ago
> Today anyone born in a Western Democracy has access to basic needs -- food, shelter, knowledge without having to do anything. I'm sorry but this is just not true. The US has ~600k homeless people, the UK had over 2 million people make use of food banks last year (up from ~25k in 2008), and almost all Western nations are seeing metrics around quality of life decline. This isn't AI's doing of course, but we are not in a worry-free position here. Western European countries have a good/decent social safety net, but the Anglo-sphere is far less generous to its poor. > I can't find a decent plumber, lawn mower, handyman or a doctor. If the economic incentives pushes artists to acquire skills that are useful to society then we should accelerate that process rather than artificially propping up their skills with debt we can't service. Retraining in midlife is no easy task, and especially so for doctors. Becoming a doctor entails taking on massive amounts of medical school debt and extremely brutal hours until you hit residency. It's a path that is only reasonable for the dedicated and the young, not for a non medical professional like a musician or software engineer in their mid 30s and over. As for plumbers, yard work, house work, electricians, etc, yes I agree those won't be easily automated away and they don't have the financial up front cost of a medical profession. But there are >25 million office workers (https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-detailed-occupation.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-detailed-occupation.ht... between the Management occupations, Business and financial operations occupations, and Computer and mathematical occupations buckets) in this country who are at short term risk of being automated away. If GPT-[X] fulfills the hype, then let's say half of those jobs go away quickly due to a 100% gain in per worker productivity. That becomes 13 million unemployed people and an unemployment rate over 11% (2008 peaked at 10.6%). That becomes a major recession or depression rather quickly. And as always for people in positions of privilege telling those under the boot to just change their profession, you first. Quit your cushy software job and help fix the labor shortage you see in plumbing.

dangerwill 3y ago

> Today anyone born in a Western Democracy has access to basic needs -- food, shelter, knowledge without having to do anything. I'm sorry but this is just not true. The US has ~600k homeless people, the UK had over 2 million people make use of food banks last year (up from ~25k in 2008), and almost all Western nations are seeing metrics around quality of life decline. This isn't AI's doing of course, but we are not in a worry-free position here. Western European countries have a good/decent social safety net, but the Anglo-sphere is far less generous to its poor. > I can't find a decent plumber, lawn mower, handyman or a doctor. If the economic incentives pushes artists to acquire skills that are useful to society then we should accelerate that process rather than artificially propping up their skills with debt we can't service. Retraining in midlife is no easy task, and especially so for doctors. Becoming a doctor entails taking on massive amounts of medical school debt and extremely brutal hours until you hit residency. It's a path that is only reasonable for the dedicated and the young, not for a non medical professional like a musician or software engineer in their mid 30s and over. As for plumbers, yard work, house work, electricians, etc, yes I agree those won't be easily automated away and they don't have the financial up front cost of a medical profession. But there are >25 million office workers (https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-detailed-occupation.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-detailed-occupation.ht... between the Management occupations, Business and financial operations occupations, and Computer and mathematical occupations buckets) in this country who are at short term risk of being automated away. If GPT-[X] fulfills the hype, then let's say half of those jobs go away quickly due to a 100% gain in per worker productivity. That becomes 13 million unemployed people and an unemployment rate over 11% (2008 peaked at 10.6%). That becomes a major recession or depression rather quickly. And as always for people in positions of privilege telling those under the boot to just change their profession, you first. Quit your cushy software job and help fix the labor shortage you see in plumbing.