4 ms·

I have a legitimate question here. Isn't 40 years quite literally nothing in terms of human life on Earth, let alone climate on Earth? Shouldn't we discussing a

I have a legitimate question here. Isn't 40 years quite literally nothing in terms of human life on Earth, let alone climate on Earth? Shouldn't we discussing a graph/timeline of at least 100k years? Is it because we don't have any data going back? Weren't there periods with much more variability, such as ice ages and the little ice age during the last millennium? Reminds me of people discussing astronomic events. It could be any day now. "Any day" being today or 10 million years from now.

yrro 3y ago
Here's a timeline that goes back 20k years: https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/ There's no better explanation for the abrupt increase in temperatures since 1900 other than emissions from burning fossil fuels.
matsemann 3y ago
I don't think your question is legitimate, given that your only other post here is conspiratory. And what do you suggest we do? Nothing, and hope for the best? I'd rather we try, based on our best knowledge so far.
- throwxhxhx 3y ago
  It is legitimate. As far as the other post goes, there's nothing conspiratory about it. Politicians and bureaucrats use excuses or disingenuous arguments to lobby their ideas all the time. Maybe some of them geniunely believe it.
inkcapmushroom 3y ago
I'll try. Here's two graphs which can illustrate the historical data. https://i0.wp.com/eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/figure-1-ipcc.png?resize=780%2C434&ssl=1 https://i0.wp.com/eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/figure-... [1] This first one is still a short timescale geologically, but shows pretty clearly how fast the change in global temperature is. https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png?itok=Jgi659bn https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_widt... [2] This second one puts that change in a geological context. The Earth has been hotter than it is now, but for example, during some of those previous time periods you had crocodile-like ancestors living in the Canadian arctic regions. [2] These graphs show why the 40 year timescale is relevant. On geological timescales that's not even a blink, but that's how fast the climate is changing right now. That's what makes it so scary, and why we need to act in an equally fast manner. [1] https://eos.org/articles/what-five-graphs-from-the-u-n-climate-report-reveal-about-our-path-to-halting-climate-change https://eos.org/articles/what-five-graphs-from-the-u-n-clima... [2] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hotte...
- throwxhxhx 3y ago
  Thanks! If I understood correctly, the second graph indicates that this is nothing but a local maximum. Therefore, the main argument is that the change has been abrupt? The problem I see is that it's only in the last 150 years that we're able to measure these changes with precision. We'll never know how many times in the past has climate changed abruptly. That doesn't necessarily mean that we should do nothing about it. It's only that we don't really know.
  - inkcapmushroom 3y ago
    It's truly possible that all the people studying it are wrong, that it's a coincidence that this temperature increase is happening right as we starting adding a whole bunch of stuff into the atmosphere that can be experimentally demonstrated to heat up the atmosphere, that some natural effect we aren't aware of is causing the sudden shift. But it seems unlikely enough that we shouldn't bet the planet on it. As far as we know through observation and experimentation, we have created this mess, and until we get strong evidence that says otherwise we should keep working under that assumption.

yrro 3y ago

Here's a timeline that goes back 20k years: https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/ There's no better explanation for the abrupt increase in temperatures since 1900 other than emissions from burning fossil fuels.

matsemann 3y ago

I don't think your question is legitimate, given that your only other post here is conspiratory. And what do you suggest we do? Nothing, and hope for the best? I'd rather we try, based on our best knowledge so far.

throwxhxhx 3y ago
It is legitimate. As far as the other post goes, there's nothing conspiratory about it. Politicians and bureaucrats use excuses or disingenuous arguments to lobby their ideas all the time. Maybe some of them geniunely believe it.

inkcapmushroom 3y ago

I'll try. Here's two graphs which can illustrate the historical data. https://i0.wp.com/eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/figure-1-ipcc.png?resize=780%2C434&ssl=1 https://i0.wp.com/eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/figure-... [1] This first one is still a short timescale geologically, but shows pretty clearly how fast the change in global temperature is. https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png?itok=Jgi659bn https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_widt... [2] This second one puts that change in a geological context. The Earth has been hotter than it is now, but for example, during some of those previous time periods you had crocodile-like ancestors living in the Canadian arctic regions. [2] These graphs show why the 40 year timescale is relevant. On geological timescales that's not even a blink, but that's how fast the climate is changing right now. That's what makes it so scary, and why we need to act in an equally fast manner. [1] https://eos.org/articles/what-five-graphs-from-the-u-n-climate-report-reveal-about-our-path-to-halting-climate-change https://eos.org/articles/what-five-graphs-from-the-u-n-clima... [2] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hotte...

throwxhxhx 3y ago
Thanks! If I understood correctly, the second graph indicates that this is nothing but a local maximum. Therefore, the main argument is that the change has been abrupt? The problem I see is that it's only in the last 150 years that we're able to measure these changes with precision. We'll never know how many times in the past has climate changed abruptly. That doesn't necessarily mean that we should do nothing about it. It's only that we don't really know.
- inkcapmushroom 3y ago
  It's truly possible that all the people studying it are wrong, that it's a coincidence that this temperature increase is happening right as we starting adding a whole bunch of stuff into the atmosphere that can be experimentally demonstrated to heat up the atmosphere, that some natural effect we aren't aware of is causing the sudden shift. But it seems unlikely enough that we shouldn't bet the planet on it. As far as we know through observation and experimentation, we have created this mess, and until we get strong evidence that says otherwise we should keep working under that assumption.