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From China's perspective there is still hope for Germany. There are still political forces in Germany who believes in Merkel's old pragmatic change-through-trad

From China's perspective there is still hope for Germany. There are still political forces in Germany who believes in Merkel's old pragmatic change-through-trade approach to foreign policy. Even if Baerbock is not one of them, she represents an administration which clearly have those elements in it. To me it is obvious what path Germany will take. It cannot do a two-front economic war both against Russia and China at the same time. So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did but they will not join an US-led cold war on China.

personomas 4y ago
Yeah, the EU is almost completely dependent on China without willing to sacrifice a rather significant drop in quality of life, which it proves over and over again it completely unwilling to do.
- netsharc 4y ago
  Quality of life? That requires buy-in from voters in a democratic society [1], and voters are humans, and humans are selfish. Phones made with cobalt mined by children? Shirts made in sweatshops in Bangladesh? But my QoL! [1] Well even dictatorship China relented when protests against Covid restrictions got too big.
  - DocTomoe 4y ago
    > [1] Well even dictatorship China relented when protests against Covid restrictions got too big. Ultimately, all societies are democratic, because they require the buy-in from the population. The moment the population isn't willing to play nicely anymore, a state is doomed. See: France, ca. 1789.
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  Yep. We depend on trade with the outside world and we are mostly unwilling to give that up.
  - cm2187 4y ago
    The question is whether we are dependent on China rather than the outside world. Let's not forget that there are many places that are now cheaper than China for manufacturing, and aren't potential political foe. It's also worth remembering that the movement of outsourcing of western manufacturing to China happened within only about 10 years (ie late 90s to late 2000s). That's actually pretty fast.
    - iforgotpassword 4y ago
      It would still be a sucky ten years, a sacrifice many people probably don't want to make. It's like the natural gas situation. We could already have a robust renewable setup here technology-wise, but it was easier to just rely on cheap gas. Now we cannot pull that renewable wonderland out of a hat over night...
    - ido 4y ago
      It's no longer textiles and cheap plastic trinkets "we" outsource to China - there's a lot of technical knowledge, infrastructure & skill now available in China that is not easily replaceable by opening a factory in Bangladesh or Turkey.
- rob74 4y ago
  Only the EU? And no democratic country is willing to make a significant sacrifice in quality of life, a government that causes this will be voted out.
  - sofixa 4y ago
    Russian sanctions and their impact on gas shipments for Europe disproves your theory.
    - rob74 4y ago
      Opinion polls prove my theory, at least in Germany: if elections were held today, the current government coalition wouldn't be able to govern anymore - despite widespread general support for the sanctions against Russia, but just a small percentage of malcontents is enough to tip the scale...
      - soco 4y ago
        If only a small percentage is enough to tip the scale, the government wasn't extremely popular to start with.
        rob74 4y ago
        Define "extremely popular" - they now have 416 out of 736 seats in the Bundestag, so around 56%, which is a relatively comfortable majority. This was achieved with SPD getting 25,7% of the vote, the Greens 14,8% and FDP 11,5% (the numbers don't add up because some parties didn't make the 5% limit, so the parties that do make it get a larger percentage of seats). According to the latest opinion polls, SPD would now get 19% (~6pp less), the Greens 17% (~2pp more) and FDP 7% (~4pp less). So, not a huge drop, and even a plus for one of the three parties, but still well below 50%...
- rippercushions 4y ago
  Really? I found the EU's willingness to cut themselves off from Russian fuel supplies, despite the risk of their own citizens literally freezing as a result, to be uncharacteristically ballsy. (And yes, I know the EU still imports some Russian gas, but it's a lot less than they used to, and they got quite lucky since the winter was mild.)
  - The_Colonel 4y ago
    A small correction - Russia cut off EU from gas, not the other way round. The EU had a long term plan to wean itself off Russian gas, but Russia pre-empted it. The ballsy part was that EU was leading a foreign policy (support for Ukraine) while knowing it will probably lead to Russia cutting off the gas supply.
    - foverzar 4y ago
      > A small correction - Russia cut off EU from gas, not the other way round Do people in Europe actually believe that to be the case? Is this yet another "Russia blew up its own billion dollar industry" thing again? > it will probably lead to Russia cutting off the gas supply So, the supply disruptions have absolutely nothing to do with Europe freezing payments and accounts, as well as disrupting all the ecosystem around the industry with sanctions? You can't really live in a reality where you both claim yourself to be a victim of a countries supply disruptions and lead an economic war against it, right? How is that not doublethink? > The ballsy part was that EU was leading a foreign policy (support for Ukraine) We now publicly (thanks to Merkel's and Hollande's confessions) know that EU had been preparing to a full scale war under the guise of peace agreements. "Ballsy" is an ironic way to describe this situation, especially when any talk of negotiations or even a ceasefire gets shunted at.
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        > We now publicly (thanks to Merkel's and Hollande's confessions) know that EU had been preparing to a full scale war under the guise of peace agreements Which was the right thing to do, we always knew Russia would invade again and any peace agreements with Russia aren't worth the paper they are written on. Russia already broke the previous agreement they had with Ukraine to never invade the country anyway. So why would this time be any different?.
- jillesvangurp 4y ago
  That works both ways. If the EU slams the door shut, the Chinese export market suffers. The Chinese are playing this very clever. The EU matters more to them than the US as a market and weakening ties between those two allies (classic divide and conquer) is a good move. Hence the Chinese are all friendly smiles when Germany pays them a visit. Win win. That visit has just one goal to ensure trade continues to function, which is a mutual interest of course. And also helps prevent things escalating into war. The US is of course highly selective when it comes to human rights. It says one thing to China and another thing to Saudi Arabia on the same topic. There's a lot more one could say about the apparent double standards applied there and elsewhere. But it all boils down to economic interests and level of influence it allows the US to wield. The EU is no different of course. Nor China.
  - user_named 4y ago
    The US is trying to weaken the ties between EU and China. Classic divide and conquer.
iforgotpassword 4y ago
> So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did but they will not join an US-led cold war on China. Until the US actually changes recognition over from China to Taiwan this is a joke. The US is just saber-rattling right now, and Macron pretty much said the EU should not blindly follow either side but listen to what the people want. So I think the other reply here is more on point about people not wanting to give up QoL should Europe decide not to side against China.
marianatom 4y ago
Both Baerbock and Macron are just there to milk China for whatever China has left. They both know China is now entering its third year of its own Great Depression, with 30% unemployment rate (even food delivery jobs are scarce now), 90% unemployment rate for new grads (it's so bad, Guangzhou government just sent 500k youth to countryside for a program), 80% retail collapse (entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen), 50% real estate price collapse, 40% export collapse. CCP can't hide this kind of economic collapse when Germany companies are closely watching the sales figures of cars and luxury goods of its own stores in China. 3/21 Germany's Economy Minister: "We must become less dependent on China" https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/germany-economy-minister-we-need-to-become-less-dependent-on-china/ https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/germany-economy-minister... 4/16 Germany backs EU-Indonesia trade pact to curb China reliance https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-backs-eu-indonesia-trade-pact-curb-china-98619841 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-backs-eu-i...
- Grimburger 4y ago
  "China is collapsing" Every self-proclaimed China expert since 2000. I know I won't change your mind but for everyone else do note that HN is one of the worst places to get unbiased opinions on the country if you actually have curiosity on this matter.
  - marianatom 4y ago
    Go watch unbiased Chinese citizen videos like https://www.youtube.com/@laobaixing-CN https://www.youtube.com/@laobaixing-CN, https://www.youtube.com/@China559 https://www.youtube.com/@China559, https://www.youtube.com/@user-ii2lv3iq9r https://www.youtube.com/@user-ii2lv3iq9r https://www.youtube.com/@zgbx https://www.youtube.com/@zgbx if you want the truths. But I highly doubt you speak any mandarin, or for that matter, pay any attention to recent events coming out of China. Since otherwise you would know about Apple, dell, hp, lg, Kyocera currently shifting manufacturing out of China. Or how Guizhou just became the first Chinese state to file for bankruptcy. Or how Chinese government just raised retirement age from 60 to 65.
rapsey 4y ago
Germany is politically going all in behind the US.
- jansan 4y ago
  One of Baerbock's main aides is literally a US citizen: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/about-us/leadership-federal-foreign-office/Klima https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/about-us/leadership-feder... I am still not sure how this was possible.
  - rapsey 4y ago
    Or the fact that the entire German gov mobile communication stack was recently handed over to Apple (email, calendars) and Wire (messaging). Both US owned.
    - jansan 4y ago
      How exactly is Wire US owned?
      - rapsey 4y ago
        https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/13/messaging-app-wire-confirms-8-2m-raise-responds-to-privacy-concerns-after-moving-holding-company-to-the-us/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/13/messaging-app-wire-confirm...
    - flas9sd 4y ago
      I can see the Wire ref and can understand the device choice on Apple. But the operational part of email? that you'd need to show me a reference for
      - rapsey 4y ago
        https://support.apple.com/en-ca/guide/certifications/apc37dae516c6/web https://support.apple.com/en-ca/guide/certifications/apc37da... https://www.bsi.bund.de/EN/Themen/Oeffentliche-Verwaltung/Zulassung/mobile_Kommunikation/mobileKommunikation.html https://www.bsi.bund.de/EN/Themen/Oeffentliche-Verwaltung/Zu...
sofixa 4y ago
> So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did but they will not join an US-led cold war on China. Is saying that the EU shouldn't blindly follow the US position "insulting" to the US now? In that case, Macron is even more right. Any "friend" or "ally" that might be insulted if you don't immediately agree with them on anything (but of course only one way, they will often ignore you) isn't a reliable friend or ally.
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago
  > isn't a reliable friend or ally France knows the US isn't a reliable ally since the Suez crisis. Look at what happened to the US allies in Afghanistan or to the Kurdish fighters in Syria for a more recent exemple. The issue is that it's a useful one.
  - boffinAudio 4y ago
    Its more a factor of not wanting to participate in the hypocrisy that is required to continue to allow American's to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity under the guise of 'protecting democracy'. Nobody outside the American agitprop bubble believes that is really the purpose of the USA's demands, any more. Even if the American people are afraid of it, the rest of the world is quite capable of viewing the evidence of American war crimes and crimes against humanity. Especially the French, who consider this a vital issue, given the extent of their borders invalidation by refugees from America's wars ...
    - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
      > Its more a factor of not wanting to participate in the hypocrisy Yeah, no, it absolutely is not that. France is all too happy to sell war equipments to countries guilty of crimes against humanity when it’s in its own interest (who said Saudi Arabia?). I applaud any actions in favour of more autonomy within or especially without the EU - an alliance which stopped making sense for France after the 2004 enlargement and was already dubious after 1995 - but let’s not pretend it’s done out of any kind of virtue.
    - 4y ago
WastingMyTime89 4y ago
> So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did When did Macron outright insult the US? As someone who both speak and read French, I haven't seen him say anything particularly shocking. As far as I know, the whole thing is mostly the US press being its usual self. Macron said Europe should aim for more independance and refuse to be a vassal of the US, that Europe shouldn't let the US drag it in its own current commercial conflict with China and that France stands being the status quo regarding Taiwan as it has always done. That all seems pretty tame.
- euroderf 4y ago
  It's not the time for Round Two of freedom fries.
BrandoElFollito 4y ago
Macron did not insult the US, like the other comments said. The US regularly insult EU though (the Iran crisis regarding nuclear for instance), and do not particularly care to be nice. The US also fund a lot of NATO, UN etc. so we (Europeans) are rather powerless. This is all theater and drama as I see it.
fortuna86 4y ago
[dead]

personomas 4y ago

Yeah, the EU is almost completely dependent on China without willing to sacrifice a rather significant drop in quality of life, which it proves over and over again it completely unwilling to do.

netsharc 4y ago
Quality of life? That requires buy-in from voters in a democratic society [1], and voters are humans, and humans are selfish. Phones made with cobalt mined by children? Shirts made in sweatshops in Bangladesh? But my QoL! [1] Well even dictatorship China relented when protests against Covid restrictions got too big.
- DocTomoe 4y ago
  > [1] Well even dictatorship China relented when protests against Covid restrictions got too big. Ultimately, all societies are democratic, because they require the buy-in from the population. The moment the population isn't willing to play nicely anymore, a state is doomed. See: France, ca. 1789.
throwaway4good 4y ago
Yep. We depend on trade with the outside world and we are mostly unwilling to give that up.
- cm2187 4y ago
  The question is whether we are dependent on China rather than the outside world. Let's not forget that there are many places that are now cheaper than China for manufacturing, and aren't potential political foe. It's also worth remembering that the movement of outsourcing of western manufacturing to China happened within only about 10 years (ie late 90s to late 2000s). That's actually pretty fast.
  - iforgotpassword 4y ago
    It would still be a sucky ten years, a sacrifice many people probably don't want to make. It's like the natural gas situation. We could already have a robust renewable setup here technology-wise, but it was easier to just rely on cheap gas. Now we cannot pull that renewable wonderland out of a hat over night...
  - ido 4y ago
    It's no longer textiles and cheap plastic trinkets "we" outsource to China - there's a lot of technical knowledge, infrastructure & skill now available in China that is not easily replaceable by opening a factory in Bangladesh or Turkey.
rob74 4y ago
Only the EU? And no democratic country is willing to make a significant sacrifice in quality of life, a government that causes this will be voted out.
- sofixa 4y ago
  Russian sanctions and their impact on gas shipments for Europe disproves your theory.
  - rob74 4y ago
    Opinion polls prove my theory, at least in Germany: if elections were held today, the current government coalition wouldn't be able to govern anymore - despite widespread general support for the sanctions against Russia, but just a small percentage of malcontents is enough to tip the scale...
    - soco 4y ago
      If only a small percentage is enough to tip the scale, the government wasn't extremely popular to start with.
      - rob74 4y ago
        Define "extremely popular" - they now have 416 out of 736 seats in the Bundestag, so around 56%, which is a relatively comfortable majority. This was achieved with SPD getting 25,7% of the vote, the Greens 14,8% and FDP 11,5% (the numbers don't add up because some parties didn't make the 5% limit, so the parties that do make it get a larger percentage of seats). According to the latest opinion polls, SPD would now get 19% (~6pp less), the Greens 17% (~2pp more) and FDP 7% (~4pp less). So, not a huge drop, and even a plus for one of the three parties, but still well below 50%...
rippercushions 4y ago
Really? I found the EU's willingness to cut themselves off from Russian fuel supplies, despite the risk of their own citizens literally freezing as a result, to be uncharacteristically ballsy. (And yes, I know the EU still imports some Russian gas, but it's a lot less than they used to, and they got quite lucky since the winter was mild.)
- The_Colonel 4y ago
  A small correction - Russia cut off EU from gas, not the other way round. The EU had a long term plan to wean itself off Russian gas, but Russia pre-empted it. The ballsy part was that EU was leading a foreign policy (support for Ukraine) while knowing it will probably lead to Russia cutting off the gas supply.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > A small correction - Russia cut off EU from gas, not the other way round Do people in Europe actually believe that to be the case? Is this yet another "Russia blew up its own billion dollar industry" thing again? > it will probably lead to Russia cutting off the gas supply So, the supply disruptions have absolutely nothing to do with Europe freezing payments and accounts, as well as disrupting all the ecosystem around the industry with sanctions? You can't really live in a reality where you both claim yourself to be a victim of a countries supply disruptions and lead an economic war against it, right? How is that not doublethink? > The ballsy part was that EU was leading a foreign policy (support for Ukraine) We now publicly (thanks to Merkel's and Hollande's confessions) know that EU had been preparing to a full scale war under the guise of peace agreements. "Ballsy" is an ironic way to describe this situation, especially when any talk of negotiations or even a ceasefire gets shunted at.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      > We now publicly (thanks to Merkel's and Hollande's confessions) know that EU had been preparing to a full scale war under the guise of peace agreements Which was the right thing to do, we always knew Russia would invade again and any peace agreements with Russia aren't worth the paper they are written on. Russia already broke the previous agreement they had with Ukraine to never invade the country anyway. So why would this time be any different?.
jillesvangurp 4y ago
That works both ways. If the EU slams the door shut, the Chinese export market suffers. The Chinese are playing this very clever. The EU matters more to them than the US as a market and weakening ties between those two allies (classic divide and conquer) is a good move. Hence the Chinese are all friendly smiles when Germany pays them a visit. Win win. That visit has just one goal to ensure trade continues to function, which is a mutual interest of course. And also helps prevent things escalating into war. The US is of course highly selective when it comes to human rights. It says one thing to China and another thing to Saudi Arabia on the same topic. There's a lot more one could say about the apparent double standards applied there and elsewhere. But it all boils down to economic interests and level of influence it allows the US to wield. The EU is no different of course. Nor China.
- user_named 4y ago
  The US is trying to weaken the ties between EU and China. Classic divide and conquer.

iforgotpassword 4y ago

> So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did but they will not join an US-led cold war on China. Until the US actually changes recognition over from China to Taiwan this is a joke. The US is just saber-rattling right now, and Macron pretty much said the EU should not blindly follow either side but listen to what the people want. So I think the other reply here is more on point about people not wanting to give up QoL should Europe decide not to side against China.

marianatom 4y ago

Both Baerbock and Macron are just there to milk China for whatever China has left. They both know China is now entering its third year of its own Great Depression, with 30% unemployment rate (even food delivery jobs are scarce now), 90% unemployment rate for new grads (it's so bad, Guangzhou government just sent 500k youth to countryside for a program), 80% retail collapse (entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen), 50% real estate price collapse, 40% export collapse. CCP can't hide this kind of economic collapse when Germany companies are closely watching the sales figures of cars and luxury goods of its own stores in China. 3/21 Germany's Economy Minister: "We must become less dependent on China" https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/germany-economy-minister-we-need-to-become-less-dependent-on-china/ https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/germany-economy-minister... 4/16 Germany backs EU-Indonesia trade pact to curb China reliance https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-backs-eu-indonesia-trade-pact-curb-china-98619841 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-backs-eu-i...

Grimburger 4y ago
"China is collapsing" Every self-proclaimed China expert since 2000. I know I won't change your mind but for everyone else do note that HN is one of the worst places to get unbiased opinions on the country if you actually have curiosity on this matter.
- marianatom 4y ago
  Go watch unbiased Chinese citizen videos like https://www.youtube.com/@laobaixing-CN https://www.youtube.com/@laobaixing-CN, https://www.youtube.com/@China559 https://www.youtube.com/@China559, https://www.youtube.com/@user-ii2lv3iq9r https://www.youtube.com/@user-ii2lv3iq9r https://www.youtube.com/@zgbx https://www.youtube.com/@zgbx if you want the truths. But I highly doubt you speak any mandarin, or for that matter, pay any attention to recent events coming out of China. Since otherwise you would know about Apple, dell, hp, lg, Kyocera currently shifting manufacturing out of China. Or how Guizhou just became the first Chinese state to file for bankruptcy. Or how Chinese government just raised retirement age from 60 to 65.

rapsey 4y ago

Germany is politically going all in behind the US.

jansan 4y ago
One of Baerbock's main aides is literally a US citizen: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/about-us/leadership-federal-foreign-office/Klima https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/about-us/leadership-feder... I am still not sure how this was possible.
- rapsey 4y ago
  Or the fact that the entire German gov mobile communication stack was recently handed over to Apple (email, calendars) and Wire (messaging). Both US owned.
  - jansan 4y ago
    How exactly is Wire US owned?
    - rapsey 4y ago
      https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/13/messaging-app-wire-confirms-8-2m-raise-responds-to-privacy-concerns-after-moving-holding-company-to-the-us/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/13/messaging-app-wire-confirm...
  - flas9sd 4y ago
    I can see the Wire ref and can understand the device choice on Apple. But the operational part of email? that you'd need to show me a reference for
    - rapsey 4y ago
      https://support.apple.com/en-ca/guide/certifications/apc37dae516c6/web https://support.apple.com/en-ca/guide/certifications/apc37da... https://www.bsi.bund.de/EN/Themen/Oeffentliche-Verwaltung/Zulassung/mobile_Kommunikation/mobileKommunikation.html https://www.bsi.bund.de/EN/Themen/Oeffentliche-Verwaltung/Zu...

sofixa 4y ago

> So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did but they will not join an US-led cold war on China. Is saying that the EU shouldn't blindly follow the US position "insulting" to the US now? In that case, Macron is even more right. Any "friend" or "ally" that might be insulted if you don't immediately agree with them on anything (but of course only one way, they will often ignore you) isn't a reliable friend or ally.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago
> isn't a reliable friend or ally France knows the US isn't a reliable ally since the Suez crisis. Look at what happened to the US allies in Afghanistan or to the Kurdish fighters in Syria for a more recent exemple. The issue is that it's a useful one.
- boffinAudio 4y ago
  Its more a factor of not wanting to participate in the hypocrisy that is required to continue to allow American's to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity under the guise of 'protecting democracy'. Nobody outside the American agitprop bubble believes that is really the purpose of the USA's demands, any more. Even if the American people are afraid of it, the rest of the world is quite capable of viewing the evidence of American war crimes and crimes against humanity. Especially the French, who consider this a vital issue, given the extent of their borders invalidation by refugees from America's wars ...
  - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
    > Its more a factor of not wanting to participate in the hypocrisy Yeah, no, it absolutely is not that. France is all too happy to sell war equipments to countries guilty of crimes against humanity when it’s in its own interest (who said Saudi Arabia?). I applaud any actions in favour of more autonomy within or especially without the EU - an alliance which stopped making sense for France after the 2004 enlargement and was already dubious after 1995 - but let’s not pretend it’s done out of any kind of virtue.
  - 4y ago

WastingMyTime89 4y ago

> So maybe they won't outright insult the US like Macron did When did Macron outright insult the US? As someone who both speak and read French, I haven't seen him say anything particularly shocking. As far as I know, the whole thing is mostly the US press being its usual self. Macron said Europe should aim for more independance and refuse to be a vassal of the US, that Europe shouldn't let the US drag it in its own current commercial conflict with China and that France stands being the status quo regarding Taiwan as it has always done. That all seems pretty tame.

euroderf 4y ago
It's not the time for Round Two of freedom fries.

BrandoElFollito 4y ago

Macron did not insult the US, like the other comments said. The US regularly insult EU though (the Iran crisis regarding nuclear for instance), and do not particularly care to be nice. The US also fund a lot of NATO, UN etc. so we (Europeans) are rather powerless. This is all theater and drama as I see it.

fortuna86 4y ago

[dead]