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The Model Y has a very conventional style, so the fact that it sells well would seem to be a point in favor of the GP’s argument. It also sells in many continen

The Model Y has a very conventional style, so the fact that it sells well would seem to be a point in favor of the GP’s argument. It also sells in many continents, which Cybertruck might not be able to do.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
Consider Tesla did not copy existing manufacturers. They built their own markets (S->X->3->Y). People complain online loudly about the touchscreen, quality, but I'll be damned, these units get moved regardless (well on our way to almost 3M/year [1]). For example, Harley can't woo younger riders to the brand because their attempt to acquire them turns off older Harley fans who are slowly dying out. Tesla doesn't have to attract legacy truck owners (Ford, Ram, Chevy), they're targeting young buyers and then locking them into the brand [2]. Buying a car is an emotional purchase [3], they're not going to convert older folks, they're going entrench themselves in youth purchasers as older, sticky auto buyers age out with their legacy preferences. Cybertruck doesn't have to sell well, it just has to have greater demand than supply globally. Global pickup truck market is ~4M/units annually, so Tesla should do just fine carving out some of that for itself. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/03/tesla-sales-up-40-to-record-1-37-million-but-thats-not-seen-as-enough/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/03/tesla-sales-up-40-to-re... [2] https://electrek.co/2023/02/27/tesla-dominates-brand-loyalty-us-electric-cars-taking-over/ https://electrek.co/2023/02/27/tesla-dominates-brand-loyalty... [3] https://martecgroup.com/emotional-car-buying-journey/ https://martecgroup.com/emotional-car-buying-journey/
- philwelch 4y ago
  The original Tesla Roadster was based on a Lotus chassis, and the models after that weren’t major deviations from the norm (aside from maybe the gull wings, but even those have some design heritage). Elon was a car guy before Tesla—one of his first splurges when he got rich was a McLaren F1, which he infamously crashed with Peter Thiel in the passenger seat—and as a result, Tesla cars all seem reminiscent of European sports cars. He’s not a truck guy, though. So while his personal tastes have been beneficial for Tesla in the past, I think they miss the mark with Cybertruck. Also, trucks are functional vehicles, and Cybertruck violates a lot of common functionality that most “legacy” trucks have. There are probably a lot of people who drive trucks who don’t need that functionality—i.e. poseurs—and maybe some of them will buy Cybertrucks. Cf. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23331546 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23331546
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    Agree, most people who buy trucks don’t use them as trucks. That’s the primary Cybertruck market. Most of life is status and signaling. Sell what people want. https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-size-pickup-truck-you-need-a-cowboy-costume https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-siz...
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  > Consider Tesla did not copy existing manufacturers. I own a Model 3 and was considering a BMW 3-series (non-EV) briefly before I bought the Tesla. While shopping I was surprised to notice how closely the price of Model 3 option packages tracked the BMW equivalent packages, almost within a few dollars (although the Tesla had fewer packages.) It seemed obvious to me that Tesla had done this on purpose, in an effort to carefully market the Model 3 towards an existing successful market. Similarly, the crossover they came out with next was named the “Model Y” and seemed almost perfectly tuned to compete with some of BMW’s popular X-line of crossover SUVs, again an existing market that could easily be optimized against. So while I would not use the word “copy”: it sure seemed like Tesla was carefully targeting existing markets, with slightly more flashy vehicles and similar price points — all with enormous success! The Cybertruck, on the other hand, throws this successful and cautious strategy into the garbage and then backs over it.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  > For example, Harley can't woo younger riders to the brand because their attempt to acquire them turns off older Harley fans who are slowly dying out. That cuts the other direction as well, if Tesla/Musk just alienate 90% of the population and the backlash builds against their touchscreens and build quality then they may find that they're just selling to fanbois. And the EV Ranger is the vehicle that is targeting the kids of the people who presently drive F150s. A car/truck purchase is emotional, and if you live in Astoria, OR a cybertruck is going to get you a ton of shit from everyone you know. The successful Tesla models have had styling that pretty much looked like any other vehicle and didn't stand out a lot and any cachet was based around what it was and how it performed.
- dingosity 4y ago
  So... the strategy is to not appeal to older buyers who have money and instead court younger buyers who can't afford your vehicle so they're "locked in" to a brand they can't purchase. Interesting.
dingosity 4y ago
The Cybertruck has to be released before it can fail in the market-place.
- LammyL 4y ago
  Cybertruck has 1.5 million preorders and revolutionizes the technology used today in cars and trucks. It may be ugly but it will win in every other category.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

Consider Tesla did not copy existing manufacturers. They built their own markets (S->X->3->Y). People complain online loudly about the touchscreen, quality, but I'll be damned, these units get moved regardless (well on our way to almost 3M/year [1]). For example, Harley can't woo younger riders to the brand because their attempt to acquire them turns off older Harley fans who are slowly dying out. Tesla doesn't have to attract legacy truck owners (Ford, Ram, Chevy), they're targeting young buyers and then locking them into the brand [2]. Buying a car is an emotional purchase [3], they're not going to convert older folks, they're going entrench themselves in youth purchasers as older, sticky auto buyers age out with their legacy preferences. Cybertruck doesn't have to sell well, it just has to have greater demand than supply globally. Global pickup truck market is ~4M/units annually, so Tesla should do just fine carving out some of that for itself. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/03/tesla-sales-up-40-to-record-1-37-million-but-thats-not-seen-as-enough/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/03/tesla-sales-up-40-to-re... [2] https://electrek.co/2023/02/27/tesla-dominates-brand-loyalty-us-electric-cars-taking-over/ https://electrek.co/2023/02/27/tesla-dominates-brand-loyalty... [3] https://martecgroup.com/emotional-car-buying-journey/ https://martecgroup.com/emotional-car-buying-journey/

philwelch 4y ago
The original Tesla Roadster was based on a Lotus chassis, and the models after that weren’t major deviations from the norm (aside from maybe the gull wings, but even those have some design heritage). Elon was a car guy before Tesla—one of his first splurges when he got rich was a McLaren F1, which he infamously crashed with Peter Thiel in the passenger seat—and as a result, Tesla cars all seem reminiscent of European sports cars. He’s not a truck guy, though. So while his personal tastes have been beneficial for Tesla in the past, I think they miss the mark with Cybertruck. Also, trucks are functional vehicles, and Cybertruck violates a lot of common functionality that most “legacy” trucks have. There are probably a lot of people who drive trucks who don’t need that functionality—i.e. poseurs—and maybe some of them will buy Cybertrucks. Cf. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23331546 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23331546
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Agree, most people who buy trucks don’t use them as trucks. That’s the primary Cybertruck market. Most of life is status and signaling. Sell what people want. https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-size-pickup-truck-you-need-a-cowboy-costume https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-siz...
matthewdgreen 4y ago
> Consider Tesla did not copy existing manufacturers. I own a Model 3 and was considering a BMW 3-series (non-EV) briefly before I bought the Tesla. While shopping I was surprised to notice how closely the price of Model 3 option packages tracked the BMW equivalent packages, almost within a few dollars (although the Tesla had fewer packages.) It seemed obvious to me that Tesla had done this on purpose, in an effort to carefully market the Model 3 towards an existing successful market. Similarly, the crossover they came out with next was named the “Model Y” and seemed almost perfectly tuned to compete with some of BMW’s popular X-line of crossover SUVs, again an existing market that could easily be optimized against. So while I would not use the word “copy”: it sure seemed like Tesla was carefully targeting existing markets, with slightly more flashy vehicles and similar price points — all with enormous success! The Cybertruck, on the other hand, throws this successful and cautious strategy into the garbage and then backs over it.
lamontcg 4y ago
> For example, Harley can't woo younger riders to the brand because their attempt to acquire them turns off older Harley fans who are slowly dying out. That cuts the other direction as well, if Tesla/Musk just alienate 90% of the population and the backlash builds against their touchscreens and build quality then they may find that they're just selling to fanbois. And the EV Ranger is the vehicle that is targeting the kids of the people who presently drive F150s. A car/truck purchase is emotional, and if you live in Astoria, OR a cybertruck is going to get you a ton of shit from everyone you know. The successful Tesla models have had styling that pretty much looked like any other vehicle and didn't stand out a lot and any cachet was based around what it was and how it performed.
dingosity 4y ago
So... the strategy is to not appeal to older buyers who have money and instead court younger buyers who can't afford your vehicle so they're "locked in" to a brand they can't purchase. Interesting.

dingosity 4y ago

The Cybertruck has to be released before it can fail in the market-place.

LammyL 4y ago
Cybertruck has 1.5 million preorders and revolutionizes the technology used today in cars and trucks. It may be ugly but it will win in every other category.