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Yep. Farm. Factory. Office. The end. There's nowhere to go, not for this amount of people. The idea that rather than losing jobs, it will compliment us and eve

Yep. Farm. Factory. Office. The end. There's nowhere to go, not for this amount of people. The idea that rather than losing jobs, it will compliment us and even enable millions of new "non-programmers" to start programming, I'm puzzled where this demand actually would come from? What would they even "build? And can you imagine the absolute nightmare of millions of people producing "code" with zero background in programming? In a sane world, this could be a humanitarian moment where we redirect our human capital to things of a less commercial nature, say human care. We don't live in that world though.

troupe 4y ago
> it will compliment us and even enable millions of new "non-programmers" to start programming You say that as if understanding and stating requirements in a non conflicting way isn't the primary skill of a programmer anyway.
anonylizard 4y ago
Electricians, plumbers, nurses, construction workers, manufacturing, there's an absolute ton of blue collar jobs out there short of people. Where do you think all the renewable energy is coming from, its coming from large teams of crews installing those wind turbines and solar panels in the wilderness. Every electrical transformer in the US is going to have to be upgraded, to accomodate for surges in demand from EVs. The housing price crisis, once regulation is fixed, people will still have to build them. Robot construction workers ain't coming any time soon. All of these are massive sources of employment. If AI really does automate a large chunk of white collar jobs, corporate profits will skyrocket, and so will government tax and private investment (Profits generally end up in investment funds somewhere), and the above sectors will absorb that investment. Now, will the transition look pretty? Will your office workers make an easy transition to physical labour? No. But neither did the coal miners find 'learning to code' easy. Time to buckle up, the tsunami comes. Also, if you can use AI, you are already safer than most of the white collar jobs, so we shouldn't be the ones crying the hardest.
- jeffdn 4y ago
  In 1985, there were about 170,000 coal miners in the United States — the peak of over 800,000 was in the 1920s. There simply isn’t a comparison in the scale there.
  - anonylizard 4y ago
    Coal miners weren't the only blue collar workers replaced, there were 20 million US manufacturing staff at its peak, now its down to 12. All offshored. That's 8 million alone. The US is already spending $1 trillion on infrastructure, $1 trillion can hire 10 mil people digging ditches for a year, and when subsidizing gainful employment (ie, only subsidizing 20% of the wages), can probably generate 50 mil jobs. If AI is that impressive, expect the government coffers to swell so much it can spend $1 trillion on infrastructure every single year. The US can easily absorb $30 trillion in total of infrastructure investment + housing construction, rebuilding itself to say Chinese standards. This wasn't possible previously because of cost and labour shortages. Now it is. The future isn't all roses, but pretending it'll be some sort of apocalypse, is just another form of coping, excusing yourself to understanding the reality.
    - phpisthebest 4y ago
      >>The US is already spending $1 trillion on infrastructure, No the US is not. I urge you to read the damn bills not the Headlines. No where in any of these "infrastructure" is even 10% of the money being spent on actual infrastructure... >>If AI is that impressive, expect the government coffers to swell so much it can spend $1 trillion on infrastructure every single year. Where on earth do you get this.... Where in the history of anything has that been true. Where do you expect this money to come from... Corporate Taxes. Please ...
- dahwolf 4y ago
  You're absolutely right about blue collar needing a revival, there's an enormous amount of work to do there, and it's a type of work near impossible to replace with AI. Further, I'd say that we need to better appreciate these jobs, in compensation and work conditions. That said, I don't see this mass transition happening from white collar to blue collar for a very sizable part of existing white collar. In many developing countries, white collar is a of a considerable age. There's skill/capability/physical issues as well as a social/cultural aspect. You're telling people that their educational investment is now worthless and are hereby demoted to the working class. May be correct, true and just, but expect social unrest.

troupe 4y ago

> it will compliment us and even enable millions of new "non-programmers" to start programming You say that as if understanding and stating requirements in a non conflicting way isn't the primary skill of a programmer anyway.

anonylizard 4y ago

Electricians, plumbers, nurses, construction workers, manufacturing, there's an absolute ton of blue collar jobs out there short of people. Where do you think all the renewable energy is coming from, its coming from large teams of crews installing those wind turbines and solar panels in the wilderness. Every electrical transformer in the US is going to have to be upgraded, to accomodate for surges in demand from EVs. The housing price crisis, once regulation is fixed, people will still have to build them. Robot construction workers ain't coming any time soon. All of these are massive sources of employment. If AI really does automate a large chunk of white collar jobs, corporate profits will skyrocket, and so will government tax and private investment (Profits generally end up in investment funds somewhere), and the above sectors will absorb that investment. Now, will the transition look pretty? Will your office workers make an easy transition to physical labour? No. But neither did the coal miners find 'learning to code' easy. Time to buckle up, the tsunami comes. Also, if you can use AI, you are already safer than most of the white collar jobs, so we shouldn't be the ones crying the hardest.

jeffdn 4y ago
In 1985, there were about 170,000 coal miners in the United States — the peak of over 800,000 was in the 1920s. There simply isn’t a comparison in the scale there.
- anonylizard 4y ago
  Coal miners weren't the only blue collar workers replaced, there were 20 million US manufacturing staff at its peak, now its down to 12. All offshored. That's 8 million alone. The US is already spending $1 trillion on infrastructure, $1 trillion can hire 10 mil people digging ditches for a year, and when subsidizing gainful employment (ie, only subsidizing 20% of the wages), can probably generate 50 mil jobs. If AI is that impressive, expect the government coffers to swell so much it can spend $1 trillion on infrastructure every single year. The US can easily absorb $30 trillion in total of infrastructure investment + housing construction, rebuilding itself to say Chinese standards. This wasn't possible previously because of cost and labour shortages. Now it is. The future isn't all roses, but pretending it'll be some sort of apocalypse, is just another form of coping, excusing yourself to understanding the reality.
  - phpisthebest 4y ago
    >>The US is already spending $1 trillion on infrastructure, No the US is not. I urge you to read the damn bills not the Headlines. No where in any of these "infrastructure" is even 10% of the money being spent on actual infrastructure... >>If AI is that impressive, expect the government coffers to swell so much it can spend $1 trillion on infrastructure every single year. Where on earth do you get this.... Where in the history of anything has that been true. Where do you expect this money to come from... Corporate Taxes. Please ...
dahwolf 4y ago
You're absolutely right about blue collar needing a revival, there's an enormous amount of work to do there, and it's a type of work near impossible to replace with AI. Further, I'd say that we need to better appreciate these jobs, in compensation and work conditions. That said, I don't see this mass transition happening from white collar to blue collar for a very sizable part of existing white collar. In many developing countries, white collar is a of a considerable age. There's skill/capability/physical issues as well as a social/cultural aspect. You're telling people that their educational investment is now worthless and are hereby demoted to the working class. May be correct, true and just, but expect social unrest.