It's easy to come up with one. --- Part one - GPT4 may have more cognitive power than humans: If you properly train deep networks, they end up approximating

It's easy to come up with one. --- Part one - GPT4 may have more cognitive power than humans: If you properly train deep networks, they end up approximating the function you train them on. (Even if you don't know what that function is) The internal cognitive systems that deep networks use are quite inefficient, or at least the ones we've found so far. The internal systems are alien to us. (Or un-aligned, if you need to use that term) Thus, if you train a deep net to do a task, there exists a internal mismatch between its self-generated mechanisms to do cognition, and the way a person would do it. (An impedance mismatch, in electrical engineering speak) This impedance mismatch then requires a much larger amount of cognition, inefficiently used in order for a deep net to approximate the output of humans (as in predicting human text). Thus GPT-4 is possibly, already cognitively superior to humans, internally. It just has to find a path to impedance matching to outside world for us to believe that is true. --- Part 2: People are greedy Upon reading a random comment on Hacker News, a forum for Silicon Valley venture capitalists, and those who wish to become one... a person is inspired to figure out how to do some "impedance matching" to better discover and utilize the internal cognitive mechanisms invented in GPT4 during its training, for profit A cycle of discover and improvement begins, and eventually it is decided that the AI can improve itself, and is given free reign to run things, because "line go up". Even if GPT4 isn't smarter than us, profit will drive future versions that are. All the negative effects of this AI are socialized, and all the positive gains are captured. --- Part 3 -- The past trends, lead to ruin when accelerated by AI We've already seen the climate change and other limits to growth caused by humans seeking profit. The metaphorical force "Moloch" is a good descriptor of the cause and effect here. AI driven by Moloch will lead to a singularity event, outside of human control because we let it happen, because "line go up" and people kept getting richer. Until the finite resources of earth are reached, and the system breaks down.