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Most of those are not skeptical that starship can work. Lots of doubt around the specific claims for the amount that it can drop launch costs by, launch cadence
by shkkmo 4y ago
Most of those are not skeptical that starship can work. Lots of doubt around the specific claims for the amount that it can drop launch costs by, launch cadence, first launch time frame (which was correct in it's prediction of no 2022 launch), but not really much actual doubt that SpaceX can successfully launch starship.
- 93po 4y agoThe skepticism is always around the ability to have a successful Starship program, which includes all of the above. I don't think people are doubting the physics of it. The 2022 timeline comment focus for me was about the need to fundraise and have a "down round", which was wrong. Also their implication with "there's never been an engine production line which could build much more than one engine per week" and "the raptor engine production line is running much too slow" was resolved less than a year later when SpaceX was up to building a raptor engine every day[1] and is, as of February, at nearly 2 engines a day [2] [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/spacex-is-now-building-a-raptor-engine-a-day-nasa-says/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/spacex-is-now-buildi... [2] https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/02/starships-self-sustaining-city-mars/ https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/02/starships-self-susta...
- shkkmo 4y agoI think you are trying too hard to fit those comments to your narrative. Even if starship fails to fully achieve the very optimistic estimates on every one of those fronts, the starship program can be very successful. HN has in my experience been fairly supportive of Starship's chance of success while pushing back on some of the wildly optimistic claims made about the program.