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As one of the strongest European economies and militaries, Germany played a big part in Russia's calculations. The belief that Germany would rather sacrifice U

by ethbr0 4y ago

As one of the strongest European economies and militaries, Germany played a big part in Russia's calculations. The belief that Germany would rather sacrifice Ukraine than lose Russian gas would have been less plausible if 30% nuclear energy had been retained.

tuukkah 4y ago
That's pure speculation, isn't it? Russia didn't make a rational decision: we know that Putin hid the plan from most of his subordinates, ignored concerns presented by the rest, and the system withheld important facts from him likewise. He made a huge gamble with his "3-day special operation". Also, the nuclear plants would have provided only a partial backup for the Russian gas, as electricity from the plants couldn't replace the direct use of gas in German houses and industry anyway.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  Russia absolutely made a rational decision. A bad one, because their facts were wrong, but one based off calculations rather than rolling dice: + Russian Cold War-era (and refits of same) military materiel is reaching obsolescence and end of life. Russia can't afford to modernize its military at scale (hence the obsession with announcing prototype superweapons) + US and European ties are at a low point, as a consequence of the Trump presidency + US is focused on China as a peer threat + Germany is uniquely diplomatically vulnerable to gas energy pressure, but only until additional renewables come online, transmission infrastructure is upgraded, and efficiency measures implemented (see the Nord Stream bombing whodoneit https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage#Speculation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sa... ) + Remaining ex-Warsaw Pact / non-NATO countries are likely accede to NATO in the next few years (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Current_status https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Current_... ) ... ergo, there was no better time to make the attempt than now. Everyone just assumed Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to try. But that calculation looks very different without the energy vulnerability, as Russia understands the economic difference between themselves and Germany.

by ethbr0 4y ago

tuukkah 4y ago

That's pure speculation, isn't it? Russia didn't make a rational decision: we know that Putin hid the plan from most of his subordinates, ignored concerns presented by the rest, and the system withheld important facts from him likewise. He made a huge gamble with his "3-day special operation". Also, the nuclear plants would have provided only a partial backup for the Russian gas, as electricity from the plants couldn't replace the direct use of gas in German houses and industry anyway.

ethbr0 4y ago
Russia absolutely made a rational decision. A bad one, because their facts were wrong, but one based off calculations rather than rolling dice: + Russian Cold War-era (and refits of same) military materiel is reaching obsolescence and end of life. Russia can't afford to modernize its military at scale (hence the obsession with announcing prototype superweapons) + US and European ties are at a low point, as a consequence of the Trump presidency + US is focused on China as a peer threat + Germany is uniquely diplomatically vulnerable to gas energy pressure, but only until additional renewables come online, transmission infrastructure is upgraded, and efficiency measures implemented (see the Nord Stream bombing whodoneit https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage#Speculation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sa... ) + Remaining ex-Warsaw Pact / non-NATO countries are likely accede to NATO in the next few years (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Current_status https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Current_... ) ... ergo, there was no better time to make the attempt than now. Everyone just assumed Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to try. But that calculation looks very different without the energy vulnerability, as Russia understands the economic difference between themselves and Germany.