It's also not "we don't know so maybe no black swans exist". Knowing and belief are different things too. I don't know for a fact that the tree outside my hous

It's also not "we don't know so maybe no black swans exist". Knowing and belief are different things too. I don't know for a fact that the tree outside my house is still there when I'm not looking at it, but I believe it will be. These discussions get muddy quickly precisely because sometimes you're arguing thinking that you know what the other person believes, which is a bit of an arrogant assumption, and then you're off having an argument with a specter of your own making.