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> While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-
by rhaway84773 4y ago
> While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-on-year.
This should be the lede of the article and indicates that sanctions are working better than Western countries could have imagined.
The last thing Western countries would have wanted is Russian oil not being sold at all. That would effectively constitute a significant drop in supply which would translate to a massive increase in energy costs adding to the high inflation they’re facing already.
This way oil supply is similar, which doesn’t lead to increasing oil prices, and Russia is getting far fewer dollars than it would have otherwise. And I’ve seen good analyses indicating that Russia is probably selling its oil at a loss right now.
- dirtyid 4y agoArticle based on Q1 data when Urals was ~40. Urals to trading at 67 now (above cap), 10 days after OPEC+ cuts. Part of it is also took some time for systems/shadow fleet to circumvent cap. RU oil price looks where it should be relative to OPEC price movement pre cap and decrease in global crude price. Unless something else changes, RU probably down single digit % of revenue backed stopped by increased production. Meanwhile EU as whole still has to overpay for Brent/OPEC/transhipped RU oil by ~20%. Almost everyone benefits except EU/RU losing, but arguablly EU losing relatively more right now. Biggest winner non RU producers, and Asia whose now getting discount energy instead of previously paying premium compared to EU.