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the Dollar "rules" by virtue of being the least dirty shirt in the laundry bin the Euro made a run at greatness twenty years ago but never gained traction Jap

the Dollar "rules" by virtue of being the least dirty shirt in the laundry bin the Euro made a run at greatness twenty years ago but never gained traction Japan doesn't have its hooks into petro-politics China will try next and may succeed with the Yuan but only through conflict what Cowen isn't telling you is that it won't take that many US dollars washing back to our shores to create serous inflation...just having BRICs migrate off of it for some transactions may very well result in dollars with no place to go come home with nothing to do but inflate things as for the debt ceiling, we might as well just scrap it

prottog 3y ago
> China will try next and may succeed with the Yuan but only through conflict Nobody can tell the future, but I don't think it's looking good for the CNY. Xi Jinping's unprecedented (since Mao Zedong's demise almost 50 years ago, at any rate) third term coupled with every indication that he's going to try and hold on to power for life presents a bearish picture on the long-term stability of the country and its currency. Many successful Chinese people have a foot out the door already, sending their children abroad and transferring as much wealth out as they can given capital controls. Xi's own daughter went to school in the US. And the demographics are not in favor of the supposed eventual supremacy of the CNY over the USD.
- hakfoo 3y ago
  It's interesting to look at some of the leaders on a long-game perspective. I feel like Fidel Castro, for example, didn't really use the office as a vehicle for self-enrichment and seemed to bow out in a graceful attempt to preserve his long-term legacy. It seems like Xi is on a similar vector-- his domestic credibility is largely due to rising global economic and political importance, and you don't really hear rumours of grand mansions and fleets of luxury vehicles on the state's tab. Maybe from that perspective, it's a "why change horses in mid-stream" scenario in the short-mid term at least. When we talk about how flexible and adaptable free markets are, we also forget how inertia-prone they are-- too many private businesses will let their country's future rot because they want to milk dying business plans for one more calendar quarter. China's ability to direct economic activity gives them a way to break the stiction.
  - prottog 3y ago
    > Fidel Castro [...] seemed to bow out in a graceful attempt to preserve his long-term legacy. He ruled for nearly fifty years and his successor was his brother. Certainly no part of that can be described as "bowing out", gracefully or not ;-)
- user_named 3y ago
  The CNY looks to have an excellent future. It's held up as well as the USD in this year's financial trouble, and has gained around 100% in value over the past twenty years in comparison to many smaller currencies.

prottog 3y ago

> China will try next and may succeed with the Yuan but only through conflict Nobody can tell the future, but I don't think it's looking good for the CNY. Xi Jinping's unprecedented (since Mao Zedong's demise almost 50 years ago, at any rate) third term coupled with every indication that he's going to try and hold on to power for life presents a bearish picture on the long-term stability of the country and its currency. Many successful Chinese people have a foot out the door already, sending their children abroad and transferring as much wealth out as they can given capital controls. Xi's own daughter went to school in the US. And the demographics are not in favor of the supposed eventual supremacy of the CNY over the USD.

hakfoo 3y ago
It's interesting to look at some of the leaders on a long-game perspective. I feel like Fidel Castro, for example, didn't really use the office as a vehicle for self-enrichment and seemed to bow out in a graceful attempt to preserve his long-term legacy. It seems like Xi is on a similar vector-- his domestic credibility is largely due to rising global economic and political importance, and you don't really hear rumours of grand mansions and fleets of luxury vehicles on the state's tab. Maybe from that perspective, it's a "why change horses in mid-stream" scenario in the short-mid term at least. When we talk about how flexible and adaptable free markets are, we also forget how inertia-prone they are-- too many private businesses will let their country's future rot because they want to milk dying business plans for one more calendar quarter. China's ability to direct economic activity gives them a way to break the stiction.
- prottog 3y ago
  > Fidel Castro [...] seemed to bow out in a graceful attempt to preserve his long-term legacy. He ruled for nearly fifty years and his successor was his brother. Certainly no part of that can be described as "bowing out", gracefully or not ;-)
user_named 3y ago
The CNY looks to have an excellent future. It's held up as well as the USD in this year's financial trouble, and has gained around 100% in value over the past twenty years in comparison to many smaller currencies.