5 ms·

Sci-fi. Worry about human beings being the one to kill us all because that's a threat that's existed for decades with nukes and biological warfare. If it isn't

Sci-fi. Worry about human beings being the one to kill us all because that's a threat that's existed for decades with nukes and biological warfare. If it isn't weapons, it'll be self-inflicted climate change, or an asteroid we haven't noticed. SkyNet isn't happening. Six billion human beings of average intelligence are a greater threat than a single hypothetical superintelligence.

chpatrick 4y ago
Maybe watch the video. The argument isn't that it's going evil and going to kill everyone but that we'll be obsolete as a species.
- hammyhavoc 4y ago
  I'll pass. If it's worth knowing about then there'll be a paper on it that isn't generating someone money as a commercial podcast with sensationalist takes. Hypothetical obsolescence is not the same as being killed by a hypothetical superintelligence. We would be no more hypothetically obsolete than the overwhelming majority of lifeforms.
- hollerith 4y ago
  Which video did you watch? Tegmark certainly is afraid that the first smarter-than-human AI will kill everyone: he dicsusses how that might happen at 2:08:40
mitthrowaway2 4y ago
Your argument is missing an important element: SkyNet isn't happening because _________
- hammyhavoc 4y ago
  Because LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns and there isn't enough compute globally to do produce a hypothetical AGI. The argument for SkyNet happening is missing an important element: why would it happen? Because sci-fi says it will?
  - mitthrowaway2 4y ago
    > The argument for SkyNet happening is missing an important element: why would it happen? Because sci-fi says it will? That element isn't missing. It's explained every time someone asks, and the answer never relies on sci-fi as evidence. The reason is because of (A) orthogonality and (B) instrumental convergence. If you aren't familiar with those terms, (A) refers to the thesis that an AI's degree of logical reasoning ability is independent of its goals. This stems from Hume's Law [1]. (B) refers to the observation that regardless of an agent's terminal goal, many instrumental goals will be predictably shared: the agent will be incentivized to increase its own capabilities, as a means toward nearly any possible end. This includes steps that would prevent humans from interfering with the AI's goals, such as a human attempting to turn it off or reprogram it. If you have questions about either of those, there are great learning materials available, including a well-made youtube series by Robert Miles. [2] > Because LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns and there isn't enough compute globally to do produce a hypothetical AGI. What makes you think LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns? So far, the benchmarks are continuing to show accelerating returns, to the point that it's becoming difficult for benchmarks to keep up.[3] [1]: Hume's Law, AKA the Is-Ought problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEUO6pjwFOo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEUO6pjwFOo [3]: "Foundation models and the next era of AI", Microsoft Research, https://youtu.be/HQI6O5DlyFc?t=958 https://youtu.be/HQI6O5DlyFc?t=958

chpatrick 4y ago

Maybe watch the video. The argument isn't that it's going evil and going to kill everyone but that we'll be obsolete as a species.

hammyhavoc 4y ago
I'll pass. If it's worth knowing about then there'll be a paper on it that isn't generating someone money as a commercial podcast with sensationalist takes. Hypothetical obsolescence is not the same as being killed by a hypothetical superintelligence. We would be no more hypothetically obsolete than the overwhelming majority of lifeforms.
hollerith 4y ago
Which video did you watch? Tegmark certainly is afraid that the first smarter-than-human AI will kill everyone: he dicsusses how that might happen at 2:08:40

mitthrowaway2 4y ago

Your argument is missing an important element: SkyNet isn't happening because _________

hammyhavoc 4y ago
Because LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns and there isn't enough compute globally to do produce a hypothetical AGI. The argument for SkyNet happening is missing an important element: why would it happen? Because sci-fi says it will?
- mitthrowaway2 4y ago
  > The argument for SkyNet happening is missing an important element: why would it happen? Because sci-fi says it will? That element isn't missing. It's explained every time someone asks, and the answer never relies on sci-fi as evidence. The reason is because of (A) orthogonality and (B) instrumental convergence. If you aren't familiar with those terms, (A) refers to the thesis that an AI's degree of logical reasoning ability is independent of its goals. This stems from Hume's Law [1]. (B) refers to the observation that regardless of an agent's terminal goal, many instrumental goals will be predictably shared: the agent will be incentivized to increase its own capabilities, as a means toward nearly any possible end. This includes steps that would prevent humans from interfering with the AI's goals, such as a human attempting to turn it off or reprogram it. If you have questions about either of those, there are great learning materials available, including a well-made youtube series by Robert Miles. [2] > Because LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns and there isn't enough compute globally to do produce a hypothetical AGI. What makes you think LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns? So far, the benchmarks are continuing to show accelerating returns, to the point that it's becoming difficult for benchmarks to keep up.[3] [1]: Hume's Law, AKA the Is-Ought problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEUO6pjwFOo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEUO6pjwFOo [3]: "Foundation models and the next era of AI", Microsoft Research, https://youtu.be/HQI6O5DlyFc?t=958 https://youtu.be/HQI6O5DlyFc?t=958