3 ms·

I agree. Even a 162-game sample isn't enough to get any great level of confidence, but it is certainly better than a 3-5 game sample of the first round or 4-7 o

by ssharp 15y ago

I agree. Even a 162-game sample isn't enough to get any great level of confidence, but it is certainly better than a 3-5 game sample of the first round or 4-7 of subsequent rounds. Beane and the A's were mostly focusing on offense, because that's were they could find value. It's significantly harder to find value in pitchers, and pitchers can help damper some of the "luck" factors in the postseason, though it's very much open to randomness. Modern baseball management is focused on building your team to win enough regular seasons to make the postseason, and then hope luck falls in your direction. If you can couple that with great starting pitching, you can reduce the amount of luck you need. I'm not sure how relevant the techniques in Moneyball still are. At this point, every team is looking at Sabermetrics, and some of the high-value stuff isn't there any more. For example, getting on base isn't worth as many runs in 2011 as it was in 2002 because there are less home runs hit.

n72 15y ago
"Beane and the A's were mostly focusing on offense, because that's were they could find value." This is not true. One, the big three of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder is one of the best front ends to a pitching staff in baseball history. Moreover, Isringhausen, Bradford, Mecir, and others on that staff were all players undervalued by the traditional ways of evaluating players. They had a team ERA+ 122. That is not a team which is "mostly focussing on offense."
- ssharp 15y ago
  I worded my post poorly. I meant to imply that their big value finds in free agency came through offense. They were able to adequately replace Damon and Giambi (Jason) with much cheaper counterparts. It would have been much more difficult to find cheap replacements for the big three. Zito, Hudson, and Mulder were all draft picks. I think Moneyball did discuss the A's strategy to draft college pitchers instead of high school, as Beane found high school pitchers to be over-valued.

by ssharp 15y ago

n72 15y ago

"Beane and the A's were mostly focusing on offense, because that's were they could find value." This is not true. One, the big three of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder is one of the best front ends to a pitching staff in baseball history. Moreover, Isringhausen, Bradford, Mecir, and others on that staff were all players undervalued by the traditional ways of evaluating players. They had a team ERA+ 122. That is not a team which is "mostly focussing on offense."

ssharp 15y ago
I worded my post poorly. I meant to imply that their big value finds in free agency came through offense. They were able to adequately replace Damon and Giambi (Jason) with much cheaper counterparts. It would have been much more difficult to find cheap replacements for the big three. Zito, Hudson, and Mulder were all draft picks. I think Moneyball did discuss the A's strategy to draft college pitchers instead of high school, as Beane found high school pitchers to be over-valued.