4 ms·
Right, but if not playing before or playing differently before increases the chance of victory, that's a good thing in the utility function. For example, even i
by Vecr 4y ago
Right, but if not playing before or playing differently before increases the chance of victory, that's a good thing in the utility function. For example, even in a non-infinitely iterated true prisoner's dilemma, defecting is the right move. In an infinitely iterated one it's probably not, but that requires pretty sophisticated decision theory, including acausal or backwards looking analysis. In a standard forward looking minimax, when applied to chess, you can use an arbitrarily sophisticated evaluation function, and that function can model the psychological state of the opponent, potentially causing the opponent to have no prior knowledge of your games, or changing your play style or using surprising moves. In addition, I don't think any external force would prevent this action, as top players in the real world have used similar strategies and were able to continue playing more games. If Kasparov thinks you are required to waste your first game on a weak player, he is mistaken.
- AlbertCory 4y agoYou know, this reminds me of one of the few Economist Jokes I know, where the economist hears of a previously-unknown real world phenomenon: "That's interesting. It works in practice, but will it work in theory?" the other one, since you wondered, is: Two economists are walking on the sidewalk and spot a $100 bill. One bends down to pick it up, but the other stops him and says, "That can't be a $100 bill. If it were, someone would have picked it up already."
- Vecr 4y agoI'm a $100 bill picker-upper. The efficient market hypothesis is false.
- Vecr 4y agoActually, to be a bit more clear, let's say you are well compensated and a $100 bill is worth 99 USD to pick up excluding outside factors. You would calculate in USD 99 - (expected loss from ambush|picked up + expected loss from arrest|picked up + expected loss from police harassment|picked up + expected loss from mob|picked up + expected loss from lawsuit|picked up + expected loss from stress|picked up + ...). I guess at that point the stress from doing the situational analysis and calculation is sunk, so you should pick up the bill if the previous calculation gives a dollar value above 0. I personally would just quickly put on gloves and check for possible ambush scenarios, and then just pick it up. If you do the full calculation at the time, someone else might get it before you. If you do most of it ahead of time, you can commit to the likely optimal decision. You need to calculate the value of your time and the value of your life in US dollars, taking into account that inflation may not work how you intuitively think it does.
- AlbertCory 4y agoway to ruin a joke.