> It was the most logical one with the data available at that moment. Logical and appropriate/reasonable are two distinct entities. I can see two coin tosses,

> It was the most logical one with the data available at that moment. Logical and appropriate/reasonable are two distinct entities. I can see two coin tosses, and if they came up heads, it is certainly logical to conclude that the coin is heavily biased. Understanding that the quality of the data is poor and that one probably should suspend judgements until further data is in is a sign of maturity. I've seen this play out over the decades: Hans Reiser, Ellen Pao, etc are common examples.