From the article: "The United Nations has said India’s population is projected to surpass China’s sometime this year. Many demographers estimate it could happen

From the article: "The United Nations has said India’s population is projected to surpass China’s sometime this year. Many demographers estimate it could happen this month, if it hasn’t already. India’s population is expected to reach 1.429 billion by the end of the year, according to the U.N. China will fall to second place, with 1.426 billion people. Both dwarf the U.S. at a projected 340 million." So anytime this month (April 2023), though I guess since we are in the middle of the month, they are ready to call it.