I agree with this. Especially with multi-agent systems (anything to do with people or biology), which are inherently vastly more complex and harder to predict

I agree with this. Especially with multi-agent systems (anything to do with people or biology), which are inherently vastly more complex and harder to predict than mechanical systems, it's very important to know the incentives of the people making the statements. Most often they are overestimating their confidence with the bias toward their own incentives.