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As one of the Twitter replies points out (https://twitter.com/dirtturd/status/1646618532950450176 https://twitter.com/dirtturd/status/1646618532950450176), ther

As one of the Twitter replies points out (https://twitter.com/dirtturd/status/1646618532950450176 https://twitter.com/dirtturd/status/1646618532950450176), there's no way that the pattern on the granite countertop is actually a match, given that in the Instagram photo the match is on the edge of the counter - whereas in the leak, the match is clearly not on the edge of the counter. The floor is also an entirely different color in the leaks v. the Instagram photo. Someone else then raised the point of "well maybe there are duplicate splotches", in which case there would surely be duplicates across many countertops in many homes - probably one with a floor color that actually matches the one shown in the leaks. A couple other folks in that thread seem to assume "well the splotch sample was clearly rotated so the paper could've been on the counter", in which case you'd think some of the leak photos would've shown the edge on which the splotch exists and would've shown more matching splotches. Still flimsy, at best. Assuming the suspect really is guilty, I highly doubt this was how the suspect got caught; it reeks of parallel construction. If this is really the only evidence anyone has of the suspect's guilt, then a conviction in spite of the "evidence" being blatantly non-evidence would be yet another damning condemnation of my country's already-damningly-condemned "justice" system.

bagels 4y ago
The tweet doesn't even present the granite as the link the used to identify (that was the steam account) but to verify where the photos were taken.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
seanhunter 4y ago
This is the sort of crowd-sourced investigative thinking like when Reddit "Got The Boston Bomber"[1]. Investigators aren't looking at patterns on granite countertops or splotches etc as primary evidence. They may well use that to confirm something but that's not the way the found the guy. They will have found him because the photo was geotagged to his house, or he's on Discord - his personal credit card has probably paid for nitro or the account is linked to his personal phone for 2fa or something. Everyone on the internet goes full CSI but most of the ways people get caught are really mundane. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_boston_bombing_debacle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_...
- yellowapple 4y ago
  > This is the sort of crowd-sourced investigative thinking like when Reddit "Got The Boston Bomber" It's the literal opposite (suggesting someone's innocence instead of someone's guilt), but sure. > They will have found him because the photo was geotagged to his house, or he's on Discord - his personal credit card has probably paid for nitro or the account is linked to his personal phone for 2fa or something. Then you'd think they would've mentioned that instead of fixating on some splotch in a granite countertop as if it actually proves anything.
  - seanhunter 4y ago
    That tweet is from a journalist, not a member of the investigative team which arrested him. Just as an example, the NYT/Bellingcat couldn't get a court order to get discord to reveal the credit card details a given account used to pay for nitro (in my example of a possible way he could have been caught) and then a order to get the card issuer to reveal the billing address of the card. But the FBI for sure could.
    - seanhunter 4y ago
      This story[1] has more detail. 1. Someone else on his discord server cooperated with the case agent 2. He switched from posting as plaintext to posting photos because he thought he would get into trouble transcribing at work. THe photos were the ones the Bellingcat journalist deduced as being taken in his parent's kitchen. 3. The FBI had already identified him. He was using his primary discord account, had told other people on discord, his first name, that he lived in Massachusetts and worked for Air National Guard. Even with a common first name that is going to narrow the list a lot. 4. He repeatedly searched the word "leak" from his work computer, which was logged and led to an FBI alert from his work infosec monitoring. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/leaked-pentagon-documents-jack-teixiera-charges-explained https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/leaked-penta...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
dragonwriter 4y ago
> Assuming the suspect really is guilty, I highly doubt this was how the suspect got caught The claim isn’t that this is how he was caught, but that it was a breakthrough—an important turning point—in the investigation. > If this is really the only evidence anyone has Literally no one has claimed anything like that, only “this is a thing that helped point us in his direction”.
- ahahahahah 4y ago
  > The claim isn’t that this is how he was caught, but that it was a breakthrough—an important turning point—in the investigation. I expect most people would even misunderstand that description. While this may have been a breakthrough in "a investigation", is not claimed to have been such in "the investigation". Is expect most people to interpret "the investigation" as talking about the law enforcement investigation into this while the Twitter post is a journalist talking about "our investigation" (presumably that of the organization he works for).
1970-01-01 4y ago
Why are you focused on the countertop pattern? Are you assuming the match wasn't made by a human?
- yellowapple 4y ago
  > Why are you focused on the countertop pattern? Because that's the one thing stated to have linked the suspect to the leaked documents. > Are you assuming the match wasn't made by a human? I'm making no assumption either way; whether it's a human or machine making the match doesn't change the match's flimsiness.
  - kube-system 4y ago
    > Because that's the one thing stated to have linked the suspect to the leaked documents. It is not. The title is editorialized, and the twitter post is referring to a NY Times investigation. The FBI got the leakers home address directly from Discord.
    - yellowapple 4y ago
      > It is not. Then you can present the other pieces of evidence made public at your leisure. I don't doubt they exist - but this granite splotch is so far the only one actually presented by anyone.
      - kube-system 4y ago
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/04/14/fbi-used-discord-billing-records-to-identify-alleged-leaker-of-classified-military-documents-report/?sh=36e73e314d0a https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/04/14/fbi-used-d... It's all here in the court filing: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.3.1.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255... The FBI isn't posting all of the evidence on twitter, because it'll be presented in a court room. The legal system is always slower than speculation by journalists.
d23 4y ago
> given that in the Instagram photo the match is on the edge of the counter - whereas in the leak, the match is clearly not on the edge of the counter. This was my first thought as well, but your comment made me go back and look again. And actually, I find it more convincing now. You can see a line from the floor just below to the right of the marking. Also, I think the Twitter poster you're linking doesn't understand that the photo was taken from the opposite angle and the marking was thus rotated to match, putting the paper directly on the counter at the edge and consistent with the leaked document photo.
- yellowapple 4y ago
  > You can see a line from the floor just below to the right of the marking. I can't see any such line in the leak version of the splotch - whereas you can see the shadowing from the edge of the counter in the Instagram version. It's readily apparent that this is not the same splotch - even (especially) after (as I mention above) rotating the splotch to line it up in both versions.
  - ahahahahah 4y ago
    The line is very clear, it's on the right side just below the orange circle. I found it difficult to understand the geometry of how it could be there given that the table appears to extend to the right just under that line. But you can set the edge and it's not actually the table extending, instead that is likely catching a bit of a camo jacket like you can see in the Instagram post sitting on a chair in just that location.
    - yellowapple 4y ago
      > The line is very clear, it's on the right side just below the orange circle. The only lines I'm seeing in the leak photo are other granite splotches; there's nothing indicating that it's a table edge or a camo jacket or anything else.
munificent 4y ago
The Tweet doesn't do a good job, but in the New York Times article, you can see that at least one of the document photos is at the edge of the counter and also shows the tile floor: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/14/us/leaked-documents-jack-teixeira#a-trail-of-digital-evidence-led-to-a-21-year-old-air-national-guardsman https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/14/us/leaked-documents-... Even so, I suspect that parallel construction is likely.
seba_dos1 4y ago
> the match is clearly not on the edge of the counter The orange circle marker makes it a bit harder to see, but it certainly looks like an edge on both of those photos.

bagels 4y ago

The tweet doesn't even present the granite as the link the used to identify (that was the steam account) but to verify where the photos were taken.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

seanhunter 4y ago

This is the sort of crowd-sourced investigative thinking like when Reddit "Got The Boston Bomber"[1]. Investigators aren't looking at patterns on granite countertops or splotches etc as primary evidence. They may well use that to confirm something but that's not the way the found the guy. They will have found him because the photo was geotagged to his house, or he's on Discord - his personal credit card has probably paid for nitro or the account is linked to his personal phone for 2fa or something. Everyone on the internet goes full CSI but most of the ways people get caught are really mundane. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_boston_bombing_debacle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_...

yellowapple 4y ago
> This is the sort of crowd-sourced investigative thinking like when Reddit "Got The Boston Bomber" It's the literal opposite (suggesting someone's innocence instead of someone's guilt), but sure. > They will have found him because the photo was geotagged to his house, or he's on Discord - his personal credit card has probably paid for nitro or the account is linked to his personal phone for 2fa or something. Then you'd think they would've mentioned that instead of fixating on some splotch in a granite countertop as if it actually proves anything.
- seanhunter 4y ago
  That tweet is from a journalist, not a member of the investigative team which arrested him. Just as an example, the NYT/Bellingcat couldn't get a court order to get discord to reveal the credit card details a given account used to pay for nitro (in my example of a possible way he could have been caught) and then a order to get the card issuer to reveal the billing address of the card. But the FBI for sure could.
  - seanhunter 4y ago
    This story[1] has more detail. 1. Someone else on his discord server cooperated with the case agent 2. He switched from posting as plaintext to posting photos because he thought he would get into trouble transcribing at work. THe photos were the ones the Bellingcat journalist deduced as being taken in his parent's kitchen. 3. The FBI had already identified him. He was using his primary discord account, had told other people on discord, his first name, that he lived in Massachusetts and worked for Air National Guard. Even with a common first name that is going to narrow the list a lot. 4. He repeatedly searched the word "leak" from his work computer, which was logged and led to an FBI alert from his work infosec monitoring. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/leaked-pentagon-documents-jack-teixiera-charges-explained https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/leaked-penta...

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

dragonwriter 4y ago

> Assuming the suspect really is guilty, I highly doubt this was how the suspect got caught The claim isn’t that this is how he was caught, but that it was a breakthrough—an important turning point—in the investigation. > If this is really the only evidence anyone has Literally no one has claimed anything like that, only “this is a thing that helped point us in his direction”.

ahahahahah 4y ago
> The claim isn’t that this is how he was caught, but that it was a breakthrough—an important turning point—in the investigation. I expect most people would even misunderstand that description. While this may have been a breakthrough in "a investigation", is not claimed to have been such in "the investigation". Is expect most people to interpret "the investigation" as talking about the law enforcement investigation into this while the Twitter post is a journalist talking about "our investigation" (presumably that of the organization he works for).

1970-01-01 4y ago

Why are you focused on the countertop pattern? Are you assuming the match wasn't made by a human?

yellowapple 4y ago
> Why are you focused on the countertop pattern? Because that's the one thing stated to have linked the suspect to the leaked documents. > Are you assuming the match wasn't made by a human? I'm making no assumption either way; whether it's a human or machine making the match doesn't change the match's flimsiness.
- kube-system 4y ago
  > Because that's the one thing stated to have linked the suspect to the leaked documents. It is not. The title is editorialized, and the twitter post is referring to a NY Times investigation. The FBI got the leakers home address directly from Discord.
  - yellowapple 4y ago
    > It is not. Then you can present the other pieces of evidence made public at your leisure. I don't doubt they exist - but this granite splotch is so far the only one actually presented by anyone.
    - kube-system 4y ago
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/04/14/fbi-used-discord-billing-records-to-identify-alleged-leaker-of-classified-military-documents-report/?sh=36e73e314d0a https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/04/14/fbi-used-d... It's all here in the court filing: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.3.1.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255... The FBI isn't posting all of the evidence on twitter, because it'll be presented in a court room. The legal system is always slower than speculation by journalists.

d23 4y ago

> given that in the Instagram photo the match is on the edge of the counter - whereas in the leak, the match is clearly not on the edge of the counter. This was my first thought as well, but your comment made me go back and look again. And actually, I find it more convincing now. You can see a line from the floor just below to the right of the marking. Also, I think the Twitter poster you're linking doesn't understand that the photo was taken from the opposite angle and the marking was thus rotated to match, putting the paper directly on the counter at the edge and consistent with the leaked document photo.

yellowapple 4y ago
> You can see a line from the floor just below to the right of the marking. I can't see any such line in the leak version of the splotch - whereas you can see the shadowing from the edge of the counter in the Instagram version. It's readily apparent that this is not the same splotch - even (especially) after (as I mention above) rotating the splotch to line it up in both versions.
- ahahahahah 4y ago
  The line is very clear, it's on the right side just below the orange circle. I found it difficult to understand the geometry of how it could be there given that the table appears to extend to the right just under that line. But you can set the edge and it's not actually the table extending, instead that is likely catching a bit of a camo jacket like you can see in the Instagram post sitting on a chair in just that location.
  - yellowapple 4y ago
    > The line is very clear, it's on the right side just below the orange circle. The only lines I'm seeing in the leak photo are other granite splotches; there's nothing indicating that it's a table edge or a camo jacket or anything else.

munificent 4y ago

The Tweet doesn't do a good job, but in the New York Times article, you can see that at least one of the document photos is at the edge of the counter and also shows the tile floor: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/14/us/leaked-documents-jack-teixeira#a-trail-of-digital-evidence-led-to-a-21-year-old-air-national-guardsman https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/14/us/leaked-documents-... Even so, I suspect that parallel construction is likely.

seba_dos1 4y ago

> the match is clearly not on the edge of the counter The orange circle marker makes it a bit harder to see, but it certainly looks like an edge on both of those photos.