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I've posted this before but it's relevant here too. The AGI Boogieman is no where near now,because: "1st, there's no true definition of what intelligence is.

I've posted this before but it's relevant here too. The AGI Boogieman is no where near now,because: "1st, there's no true definition of what intelligence is. Right now it's a moving target. Moving targets are hard to hit. Defining intelligence will take time. How can we create what we can't define? 2, we are getting close to hardware processing speed limits and the amount of easy to process data will be gone soon. Yet, AGI is nowhere near. LLM's are remarkable but it's data processing at scale. It has as much intellect as my word processor. It's useful but it's not AGI. 3, there's no defining theory that will get us to AGI. We don't know how to get there. What we have is wishful thinking that says we'll be there soon. In any project the early percentage towards our task is relatively easy. The last X% is hard. I think we are underestimating how much time and effort it takes to complete the project of AGI. We have only scratched the surface of it. The 80/20 rule is real. AGI reminds me of the search for ETs. We feel we are close to meeting an ET. Some even believe we have encountered them. But we have 0 evidence that they exist. It's been burned in to our culture by fiction writers but nothing in our real life experience says they exist. Similarly we feel we will meet AGI soon. We might get to AGI but I think we are kidding ourselves that it will be here soon. Most people alive now will be gone by the time AGI is a thing, if ever. The real danger is the misuse of the AI we have by people. That really scares me."

NumberWangMan 4y ago
Have you watched this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ (You don't have to, of course. An hour-long video recommended by a stranger on the internet is a big ask) There's a ton of evidence that this is moving way faster than people think. I don't think there's anything particularly special about human intelligence. And time and time again, we've been able to copy things that nature does and make them way more powerful, like planes vs birds. It does the same thing, but in a completely different way. It would be surprising if we couldn't do it with brains. I feel like a lot of people are not going to admit that we have already created AGI until we literally have an unstoppable AI that has taken over everything. It's not human level everywhere, but it's way better than humans in a lot of ways. It's never going to be exactly human, it'll work differently than we do. But if you count intelligence as the ability to achieve goals, which is how most researchers do, then we're already pretty much there.

NumberWangMan 4y ago

Have you watched this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ (You don't have to, of course. An hour-long video recommended by a stranger on the internet is a big ask) There's a ton of evidence that this is moving way faster than people think. I don't think there's anything particularly special about human intelligence. And time and time again, we've been able to copy things that nature does and make them way more powerful, like planes vs birds. It does the same thing, but in a completely different way. It would be surprising if we couldn't do it with brains. I feel like a lot of people are not going to admit that we have already created AGI until we literally have an unstoppable AI that has taken over everything. It's not human level everywhere, but it's way better than humans in a lot of ways. It's never going to be exactly human, it'll work differently than we do. But if you count intelligence as the ability to achieve goals, which is how most researchers do, then we're already pretty much there.