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How can you say that when birth rates vary so widely with time and place? Even just in the modern developed world, couldn't we copy whatever Israel is doing [1]

How can you say that when birth rates vary so widely with time and place? Even just in the modern developed world, couldn't we copy whatever Israel is doing [1]? It may not be easy or guaranteed, but we don't need to go as high as Israel's 3.1 - the replacement level of 2.1 would suffice. [1] Israel has been in a constant baby boom since independence, with the highest fertility rate in the OECD at 3.1 children per woman. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boom#Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boom#Israel

tshaddox 3y ago
That commenter probably means that there is no known reliable way solution that generalizes to many diverse countries. Pointing out the existence of a country with high birth rates isn’t a dispute of that claim, since as far as I know “just become exactly like Israel” isn’t really an option.
- Bran_son 3y ago
  It's a dispute of the implied claim that a developed nation with women's rights can't have high birth rates. > known reliable way solution that generalizes Why all these qualifiers? It doesn't have to be reliable or general - individual countries can each have their own approach, that only works after lots of tweaking, and even just intermittently, as long as it time-averages to replacement level. And it won't become known unless we look for it - more than the occasional sporadic attempt by a government that gets decried as racist and sexist for their efforts [1]. > exactly like Israel Why "exactly"? If someone pointed to Japan when searching for solutions to reduce heart disease or medical costs in the US, would you also say "become exactly like Japan" isn't an option? Many countries similar to Israel have low fertility, while many very dissimilar ones have high fertility. Clearly, being exactly like Israel isn't necessary. [1] 'Baby machines': eastern Europe's answer to depopulation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/baby-bonuses-fit-the-nationalist-agenda-but-do-they-work https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/baby-bonuses-f...
  - thfuran 3y ago
    >only works after lots of tweaking, and even just intermittently, as long as it time-averages to replacement level. That sounds like an unending series of demographic shocks and may well be worse than the original problem.
    - Bran_son 3y ago
      They are only shocks if the fertility rate fluctuations have a high amplitude and period longer than ~20 years. For example, if the rate varies between 1.8 and 2.4, on a 20 year time-scale, then they won't be "shocks", but mere gentle waves.
midoridensha 3y ago
>couldn't we copy whatever Israel is doing? You think everyone should become a bunch of religious nuts? That's not something that's exactly easy to instill in a population; it takes generations. It also usually results in a lot of bad things: oppression of women and minorities, warmongering, etc.
- Bran_son 3y ago
  That's assuming religious nuttery is an unavoidable prerequisite for whatever is lifting their birth rate. I don't think this assumption is merited - according to Pew surveys, Serbia has a similar rate of irreligion (3.3%) as Israel (3.1%), yet their fertility rate is only 1.4. On the other hand Mongolia is 36% irreligious but has a 2.9 fertility rate. Religion and fertility may be correlated, but it's demonstrably not an unbreakable rule, and outliers abound, so we shouldn't just give up. Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_irreligion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_irreligio... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d...
  - midoridensha 3y ago
    Israel is literally a theocracy. It's not a valid example for any kind of modern democracy, and the religion factor isn't something you can just ignore.
  - fomine3 3y ago
    Irreligion rate isn't the reason. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism

tshaddox 3y ago

That commenter probably means that there is no known reliable way solution that generalizes to many diverse countries. Pointing out the existence of a country with high birth rates isn’t a dispute of that claim, since as far as I know “just become exactly like Israel” isn’t really an option.

Bran_son 3y ago
It's a dispute of the implied claim that a developed nation with women's rights can't have high birth rates. > known reliable way solution that generalizes Why all these qualifiers? It doesn't have to be reliable or general - individual countries can each have their own approach, that only works after lots of tweaking, and even just intermittently, as long as it time-averages to replacement level. And it won't become known unless we look for it - more than the occasional sporadic attempt by a government that gets decried as racist and sexist for their efforts [1]. > exactly like Israel Why "exactly"? If someone pointed to Japan when searching for solutions to reduce heart disease or medical costs in the US, would you also say "become exactly like Japan" isn't an option? Many countries similar to Israel have low fertility, while many very dissimilar ones have high fertility. Clearly, being exactly like Israel isn't necessary. [1] 'Baby machines': eastern Europe's answer to depopulation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/baby-bonuses-fit-the-nationalist-agenda-but-do-they-work https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/baby-bonuses-f...
- thfuran 3y ago
  >only works after lots of tweaking, and even just intermittently, as long as it time-averages to replacement level. That sounds like an unending series of demographic shocks and may well be worse than the original problem.
  - Bran_son 3y ago
    They are only shocks if the fertility rate fluctuations have a high amplitude and period longer than ~20 years. For example, if the rate varies between 1.8 and 2.4, on a 20 year time-scale, then they won't be "shocks", but mere gentle waves.

midoridensha 3y ago

>couldn't we copy whatever Israel is doing? You think everyone should become a bunch of religious nuts? That's not something that's exactly easy to instill in a population; it takes generations. It also usually results in a lot of bad things: oppression of women and minorities, warmongering, etc.

Bran_son 3y ago
That's assuming religious nuttery is an unavoidable prerequisite for whatever is lifting their birth rate. I don't think this assumption is merited - according to Pew surveys, Serbia has a similar rate of irreligion (3.3%) as Israel (3.1%), yet their fertility rate is only 1.4. On the other hand Mongolia is 36% irreligious but has a 2.9 fertility rate. Religion and fertility may be correlated, but it's demonstrably not an unbreakable rule, and outliers abound, so we shouldn't just give up. Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_irreligion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_irreligio... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d...
- midoridensha 3y ago
  Israel is literally a theocracy. It's not a valid example for any kind of modern democracy, and the religion factor isn't something you can just ignore.
- fomine3 3y ago
  Irreligion rate isn't the reason. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism