4 ms·

Skynet aside, aren’t all these other fears also just fear of the future too?

blululu 4y ago
You’re generalizing the particular. This is a fear of a very specific variety of future. Nobody is afraid of the a future that has a vaccine for HIV or the elimination of extreme poverty. The one where we are inundated with AI is special.
Entinel 4y ago
Sure, if speaking generally. I mainly take issue with the author passing it off as fear of change or fear of the worst case scenario as if it were just a phobia. The things I listed I feel are very real and actively happening.
cinquemb 4y ago
These sound no different to me than any other transformative tech during other time frames in history. More scams [some people eventually learned, those who didn't lost out], less of the same jobs we have now [different jobs were created, those who didn't adapt or refused lost out], more noise [people learned to filter differently, those who didnt or refused lost out].
dmonitor 4y ago
a spear flying at your face is fearing what will happen when it hits you in the face. all fears are fear of the future when you apply enough abstraction.
waselighis 4y ago
It's already happening. Numerous deepfakes have spread around online, and possibly many more that nobody even realizes are deepfakes. There are numerous stories of people losing their jobs because ChatGPT. One story comes to mind, a freelance writer who lost their biggest client because they started using ChatGPT to generate everything. It's already happening now. It's only going to get worse as these AIs improve.
criddell 4y ago
Is talking about the potential impact of climate change on people around the world fear of the future?
- bodhi_mind 4y ago
  Yes. We’re afraid of what it may do to those people in the future.
- cinquemb 4y ago
  I think the bigger idea here that hanson maybe doesn't do a good job of highlighting, using your example, is that if you look at the historical examples (ice cores, old rocks, etc) of big shifts in the world climate, it's going to happen regardless of humans.
  - rurp 4y ago
    This sounds awfully handwavy. The fact that the climate changes over millennea doesn't do anything to justify climate destruction. For a small scale experiment, try cutting down all of the trees in your neighbor's yard and justifying it with "Well all trees fall down eventually".
    - cinquemb 4y ago
      In your example, the likely outcome depending on the jurisdiction would be some kind of fine (neglecting some kind of physical confrontation). Just because something negative would happen to me (maybe more parties as well if one includes the trees, the neighbor, anyone/thing else that tries to be involved in such), doesn't really change the longer scale. We kill plenty of things in our daily lives without a second thought with every breath we take, to favor some killing over others is arbitrary. Some will manage to survive in some form (maybe even unrecognizable to humans today) is such an end state where all trees are gone, most who are dogmatic about others trying to do so, will not. Many eukaryote's from billions of years ago died out, and some went on to become humans. If one could imagine that those eukaryote's that died out then could ponder the future, no doubt plenty would have sought to be comforted by some kind of pause in their development for some kind of eukaryote safety net to avoid such far future couplings in the form of humans.
ehnto 4y ago
I don't see how that's a useful discussion though. It's not really lofty futurist fearmongering, it's uncertainty about a very real, currently happening event in history. It would be like dismissing someone in the US for worrying about WW2 in 1939. Yeah, it might not impact the US, but also it's not immaterial daydreaming either. It is something you can reason about and prepare some plans for.
BaseballPhysics 4y ago
Cool, so any consideration of the downsides of technology is just "fear of the future"? We're just suppose to terminate all thinking and mindlessly charge ahead?
- bodhi_mind 4y ago
  Why would we ignore it? The purpose of fear is so we do give it more consideration and don’t charge ahead.

You’re generalizing the particular. This is a fear of a very specific variety of future. Nobody is afraid of the a future that has a vaccine for HIV or the elimination of extreme poverty. The one where we are inundated with AI is special.

Entinel 4y ago

Sure, if speaking generally. I mainly take issue with the author passing it off as fear of change or fear of the worst case scenario as if it were just a phobia. The things I listed I feel are very real and actively happening.

cinquemb 4y ago

These sound no different to me than any other transformative tech during other time frames in history. More scams [some people eventually learned, those who didn't lost out], less of the same jobs we have now [different jobs were created, those who didn't adapt or refused lost out], more noise [people learned to filter differently, those who didnt or refused lost out].

dmonitor 4y ago

a spear flying at your face is fearing what will happen when it hits you in the face. all fears are fear of the future when you apply enough abstraction.

waselighis 4y ago

It's already happening. Numerous deepfakes have spread around online, and possibly many more that nobody even realizes are deepfakes. There are numerous stories of people losing their jobs because ChatGPT. One story comes to mind, a freelance writer who lost their biggest client because they started using ChatGPT to generate everything. It's already happening now. It's only going to get worse as these AIs improve.

criddell 4y ago

Is talking about the potential impact of climate change on people around the world fear of the future?

bodhi_mind 4y ago
Yes. We’re afraid of what it may do to those people in the future.
cinquemb 4y ago
I think the bigger idea here that hanson maybe doesn't do a good job of highlighting, using your example, is that if you look at the historical examples (ice cores, old rocks, etc) of big shifts in the world climate, it's going to happen regardless of humans.
- rurp 4y ago
  This sounds awfully handwavy. The fact that the climate changes over millennea doesn't do anything to justify climate destruction. For a small scale experiment, try cutting down all of the trees in your neighbor's yard and justifying it with "Well all trees fall down eventually".
  - cinquemb 4y ago
    In your example, the likely outcome depending on the jurisdiction would be some kind of fine (neglecting some kind of physical confrontation). Just because something negative would happen to me (maybe more parties as well if one includes the trees, the neighbor, anyone/thing else that tries to be involved in such), doesn't really change the longer scale. We kill plenty of things in our daily lives without a second thought with every breath we take, to favor some killing over others is arbitrary. Some will manage to survive in some form (maybe even unrecognizable to humans today) is such an end state where all trees are gone, most who are dogmatic about others trying to do so, will not. Many eukaryote's from billions of years ago died out, and some went on to become humans. If one could imagine that those eukaryote's that died out then could ponder the future, no doubt plenty would have sought to be comforted by some kind of pause in their development for some kind of eukaryote safety net to avoid such far future couplings in the form of humans.

ehnto 4y ago

I don't see how that's a useful discussion though. It's not really lofty futurist fearmongering, it's uncertainty about a very real, currently happening event in history. It would be like dismissing someone in the US for worrying about WW2 in 1939. Yeah, it might not impact the US, but also it's not immaterial daydreaming either. It is something you can reason about and prepare some plans for.

BaseballPhysics 4y ago

Cool, so any consideration of the downsides of technology is just "fear of the future"? We're just suppose to terminate all thinking and mindlessly charge ahead?

bodhi_mind 4y ago
Why would we ignore it? The purpose of fear is so we do give it more consideration and don’t charge ahead.