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Fossil fueled global warming in a nutshell: (1) A century of extremely heavy fossil fuel use by a rapidly growing human population increases CO2 levels with th

Fossil fueled global warming in a nutshell: (1) A century of extremely heavy fossil fuel use by a rapidly growing human population increases CO2 levels with the most effect seen at about 12 km height in the atmosphere where the added CO2 absorbs infrared radiation that otherwise would have escaped to space. The re-radiated infrared warms the atmosphere a little bit (this is only about 1/3 of the overall effect, however). Some other gases (CH4, N2O etc.) have minor additive effects, but it's the fossil CO2 which is the primary driver. (2) This warming increases the evaporation/precipitation ratio such that atmospheric water vapor increases. This water vapor may be clear-air or clouds, but overall it boosts the warming rate by about twice the CO2 effect (2/3 of overall effect). However, if you dropped atmospheric CO2, water vapor equilibrates quickly, i.e. weeks/months at most. But, you end up with a good deal more water vapor in the atmosphere (+10% IIRC?). That's just the warming, no big deal it might seem. However, the Earth is still tilted on its axis, we still get seasons, we get mid-latitude storm fronts sweeping through, and if a polar cold front hits a body of air that has higher than usual water vapor content, then you get extra precipitation, driving flooding rates higher. On the other hand, if you have clear-air water vapor, and it sits in place, you can get a massive heat wave. This is why, depending on region and season and oceanic fluctuations, the severity of droughts and floods tends to increase over time as the planet warms. It's not going away, and will get worse for the next 100 years at least, so, maybe build homes that can float? Moored to concrete pilings, say. Also, don't live in flood zones, or in low-lying coastal areas. And, stop burning fossil fuels for energy so it doesn't get even worse than it already will be.

realworldperson 4y ago
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scottLobster 4y ago
A lot of retirees who bought beach houses will be disappointed. Sea level rise is already being priced into real estate https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-estate-prices https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-est... "A titled “Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise” published by the University of Colorado identified a drop in sales in high-risk coastal areas starting in 2013. The study also states that, on average, homes near sea level rise sold for 7% less than other comparable homes. This downward trend strands in contrast to increased sales prices in nearby lower-risk areas. As sea levels continue to rise, this trend may continue. Wealthier homeowners will be able to move to lower-risk areas, while people with lower incomes will be subject to higher risks of flooding. Fewer Home Sales In High-Risk Areas In addition to decreased sales prices, there are also fewer homes being sold in coastal high-risk areas. It should come as no surprise that people don’t want to live in areas where they feel threatened by extreme weather and wildfires. Even if being close to the woods or the ocean is a huge plus, no one wants their home to be threatened by a fire or flood. With fewer homes being purchased in these areas, those who want to sell may have a harder time. The decrease in sales prices and home sales could be a housing market indicator for the future of coastal home sales."
- mcculley 4y ago
  My assessment as a 51 year old native Floridian is that, "a lot of retirees who bought beach houses will be disappointed" is fundamental to the problem. Our economy is based on 30-year financial instruments. Largely nobody is incentivized to think ahead further than 30 years, especially retirees. I am astounded when I see coastal properties sold knowing that they will be untenable in the long term.
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    The insurance market is fixing the problem. Citizens Insurance, the high risk pool, is slowly rolling out a flood insurance requirement across all policyholders. You can either afford insurance, or you will self insure. If you can’t afford the insurance, you won’t be able to carry a mortgage. Arguably, the system is correcting the previously mispriced risk. https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20230127-flood-insurance-requirements-for-renewal-eligibility https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20230127-flood-insurance-requi...
    - mcculley 4y ago
      I am very familiar with Citizens and while I am pleased to see reform of it, I don't see how the changes made end up with correctly priced risk. The continued existence of Citizens is proof that the risk is not priced correctly or private insurers would be willing to sell policies. But the mispriced risk is only part of the problem. Even if the risk were correctly priced, I do not believe that many properties being sold today will be standing in 30 years without significant extra investment. It is not just the private properties. Roads and other infrastructure are built in Florida with no apparent long term plan.

realworldperson 4y ago

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scottLobster 4y ago

A lot of retirees who bought beach houses will be disappointed. Sea level rise is already being priced into real estate https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-estate-prices https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-est... "A titled “Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise” published by the University of Colorado identified a drop in sales in high-risk coastal areas starting in 2013. The study also states that, on average, homes near sea level rise sold for 7% less than other comparable homes. This downward trend strands in contrast to increased sales prices in nearby lower-risk areas. As sea levels continue to rise, this trend may continue. Wealthier homeowners will be able to move to lower-risk areas, while people with lower incomes will be subject to higher risks of flooding. Fewer Home Sales In High-Risk Areas In addition to decreased sales prices, there are also fewer homes being sold in coastal high-risk areas. It should come as no surprise that people don’t want to live in areas where they feel threatened by extreme weather and wildfires. Even if being close to the woods or the ocean is a huge plus, no one wants their home to be threatened by a fire or flood. With fewer homes being purchased in these areas, those who want to sell may have a harder time. The decrease in sales prices and home sales could be a housing market indicator for the future of coastal home sales."

mcculley 4y ago
My assessment as a 51 year old native Floridian is that, "a lot of retirees who bought beach houses will be disappointed" is fundamental to the problem. Our economy is based on 30-year financial instruments. Largely nobody is incentivized to think ahead further than 30 years, especially retirees. I am astounded when I see coastal properties sold knowing that they will be untenable in the long term.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  The insurance market is fixing the problem. Citizens Insurance, the high risk pool, is slowly rolling out a flood insurance requirement across all policyholders. You can either afford insurance, or you will self insure. If you can’t afford the insurance, you won’t be able to carry a mortgage. Arguably, the system is correcting the previously mispriced risk. https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20230127-flood-insurance-requirements-for-renewal-eligibility https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20230127-flood-insurance-requi...
  - mcculley 4y ago
    I am very familiar with Citizens and while I am pleased to see reform of it, I don't see how the changes made end up with correctly priced risk. The continued existence of Citizens is proof that the risk is not priced correctly or private insurers would be willing to sell policies. But the mispriced risk is only part of the problem. Even if the risk were correctly priced, I do not believe that many properties being sold today will be standing in 30 years without significant extra investment. It is not just the private properties. Roads and other infrastructure are built in Florida with no apparent long term plan.