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Leaks can be intentional to misguide enemies. Wondering how to identify this one is legit or intentional leak?

by jp42 3y ago

kevin_thibedeau 3y ago
I'm definitely suspicious that the "ammunition shortage" is misinformation. They're too willing to discuss that with the media.
- rjsw 3y ago
  Why? There was a RUSI article last year that looked at it. The one area that was in good shape was 5.56 production, the US "assault rifle" gun culture takes care of that. [1] https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - mauvehaus 3y ago
    Couple of points: 5.56x45 is a NATO caliber. Historically, the AK-47 used 7.62x39, and the more modern AK variants use 5.45x39. I'm sure the Ukrainians are happily taking anything that they can get at the moment, but I'd be surprised if their small arms at the start of the war were chambered for 5.56. Second, I doubt that the private gun owners of the United States consume as much 5.56/.223 as the entirety of NATO. The cartridge is widely available, popular, and comparatively inexpensive because of the large military demand for it. I'd be further very surprised if the combined US private consumption of all other centerfire[0] rifle cartridges adds up to the private US consumption of 5.56. The economies of scale behind 5.56 are huge. 5.56 can be had for under $1/round in bulk. Most other centerfire rifle cartridges aren't commonly sold in bulk (.308/7.62x51 being the only other one that comes to mind, which is also a NATO round). Basically anything that you might reasonably hunt deer[0] with is around $2/round. The takeaway from all this should be that if NATO went to war, we might have to worry about the supply of 5.56. While there's a very visible part of the US gun culture that's dominated by the popularity of 5.56 and AR-pattern weapons, I don't think we can "thank" it for the abundance of 5.56 relative to the shortage of everything else that's being used in Ukraine. [0] The .22 S/L/LR variants and the .17 derivatives are rimfire, which are entirely different from a manufacturing standpoint. [1] I'm not going to get into the debate of whether 5.56 is suitable as a deer cartridge. I don't know. 5.56 is in broadly the same class of cartridges as the classic deer cartridges, at least from a manufacturing standpoint.
    - BobbyJo 3y ago
      Private gun owners don't need to consume a number on par with NATO to help keep capacity up. They just need to consume enough that maintaining said capacity is profitable. That being said, I'd honestly be surprised if private consumption wasn't within an order of magnitude.
    - kevin_thibedeau 3y ago
      Ukraine started migrating to 5.56 in 2014 as part of their plan to become closer to NATO and less dependent on Warsaw pact weaponry.
- jonathanstrange 3y ago
  Ammunition shortage has been discussed for a long time and can be deduced independently from the Western production capabilities. It depends on the weapon's system, of course, but is certainly nothing new or unexpected. I've seen Sky News report about the expected shortages with nice infographics around Christmas. It's still less problematic for Ukraine than what the Russians are facing (except for dumb artillery shells).
  - justrealist 3y ago
    The shortage of AA missiles (especially S-300) is very problematic for Ukraine, and Russia does not have any known shortage of AA missiles.
PartiallyTyped 3y ago
One of the leaked documents included information regarding an undermining of Putin’s war from very high ranking subordinates of his. This adds credibility to the position that it was intentional imho. The other data that may hint at this is ammunition distribution. Depending on how Ukraine’s attack goes we may be able to infer the intention. You should spend some time in Bellingcat’s discord server if you are interested in this.
- pphysch 3y ago
  > You should spend some time in Bellingcat’s discord server if you are interested in this. Do I need clearance for this?
  - brookst 3y ago
    No, but it may impact your ability to get clearance in the future.
    - pphysch 3y ago
      Why's that? A history of cooperating with Western intelligence, even as a very low level asset, should be a bonus.
      - jonathanstrange 3y ago
        I believe intelligence agencies prefer to train their staff in house...

Leaks can be intentional to misguide enemies. Wondering how to identify this one is legit or intentional leak?

by jp42 3y ago

Leaks can be intentional to misguide enemies. Wondering how to identify this one is legit or intentional leak?

I'm definitely suspicious that the "ammunition shortage" is misinformation. They're too willing to discuss that with the media.

rjsw 3y ago
Why? There was a RUSI article last year that looked at it. The one area that was in good shape was 5.56 production, the US "assault rifle" gun culture takes care of that. [1] https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- mauvehaus 3y ago
  Couple of points: 5.56x45 is a NATO caliber. Historically, the AK-47 used 7.62x39, and the more modern AK variants use 5.45x39. I'm sure the Ukrainians are happily taking anything that they can get at the moment, but I'd be surprised if their small arms at the start of the war were chambered for 5.56. Second, I doubt that the private gun owners of the United States consume as much 5.56/.223 as the entirety of NATO. The cartridge is widely available, popular, and comparatively inexpensive because of the large military demand for it. I'd be further very surprised if the combined US private consumption of all other centerfire[0] rifle cartridges adds up to the private US consumption of 5.56. The economies of scale behind 5.56 are huge. 5.56 can be had for under $1/round in bulk. Most other centerfire rifle cartridges aren't commonly sold in bulk (.308/7.62x51 being the only other one that comes to mind, which is also a NATO round). Basically anything that you might reasonably hunt deer[0] with is around $2/round. The takeaway from all this should be that if NATO went to war, we might have to worry about the supply of 5.56. While there's a very visible part of the US gun culture that's dominated by the popularity of 5.56 and AR-pattern weapons, I don't think we can "thank" it for the abundance of 5.56 relative to the shortage of everything else that's being used in Ukraine. [0] The .22 S/L/LR variants and the .17 derivatives are rimfire, which are entirely different from a manufacturing standpoint. [1] I'm not going to get into the debate of whether 5.56 is suitable as a deer cartridge. I don't know. 5.56 is in broadly the same class of cartridges as the classic deer cartridges, at least from a manufacturing standpoint.
  - BobbyJo 3y ago
    Private gun owners don't need to consume a number on par with NATO to help keep capacity up. They just need to consume enough that maintaining said capacity is profitable. That being said, I'd honestly be surprised if private consumption wasn't within an order of magnitude.
  - kevin_thibedeau 3y ago
    Ukraine started migrating to 5.56 in 2014 as part of their plan to become closer to NATO and less dependent on Warsaw pact weaponry.
jonathanstrange 3y ago
Ammunition shortage has been discussed for a long time and can be deduced independently from the Western production capabilities. It depends on the weapon's system, of course, but is certainly nothing new or unexpected. I've seen Sky News report about the expected shortages with nice infographics around Christmas. It's still less problematic for Ukraine than what the Russians are facing (except for dumb artillery shells).
- justrealist 3y ago
  The shortage of AA missiles (especially S-300) is very problematic for Ukraine, and Russia does not have any known shortage of AA missiles.

PartiallyTyped 3y ago

One of the leaked documents included information regarding an undermining of Putin’s war from very high ranking subordinates of his. This adds credibility to the position that it was intentional imho. The other data that may hint at this is ammunition distribution. Depending on how Ukraine’s attack goes we may be able to infer the intention. You should spend some time in Bellingcat’s discord server if you are interested in this.

pphysch 3y ago
> You should spend some time in Bellingcat’s discord server if you are interested in this. Do I need clearance for this?
- brookst 3y ago
  No, but it may impact your ability to get clearance in the future.
  - pphysch 3y ago
    Why's that? A history of cooperating with Western intelligence, even as a very low level asset, should be a bonus.
    - jonathanstrange 3y ago
      I believe intelligence agencies prefer to train their staff in house...