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It would be interesting to see a Chinese manufacturer taking the lead in the automobile segment. Wonder how it will affect politically. It was all Korean or Jap

It would be interesting to see a Chinese manufacturer taking the lead in the automobile segment. Wonder how it will affect politically. It was all Korean or Japanese dominance till now with KIAs/Hyudai and Toyotas. American cars brands mostly fail outside the US.

Dalewyn 4y ago
There's no "would" about it, it is happening if the 2030 all-EV timetable is kept to. Other than Tesla, western (that includes Japan and South Korea) car makers stand to lose everything vice versa China who stand to gain everything with the current politics.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  Indeed, companies like VW, BMW, Mercedes, Ford, GM, Hyundai/KIA, Nissan, Honda etc are going to lose everything compared to a new entrant which doesn't have a single vehicle on sale in the markets where those brands have long been established players. They must be quaking in their boots. /s The 2030 timetable is not going to be met by any single manufacturer, if it is going to be met to begin with. I suspect that it is going to be pushed backwards bit by bit as reality sets in: that it always was too ambitious a target to realistically achieve. And if they stick to it, which I would find very brave it will simply mean that the price of personal transportation will skyrocket and that older non BEVs will have to hang around a little longer. There is so much that has to work for an all electric transition for every new vehicle sold in the next 7 years to be successful that I wouldn't bet on it. I think of it more as a goal to strive for than something that is realistically achievable, but of course I hope that I'll be wrong on this. Time will tell.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    China added production capacity for almost 4million EV's last year. (from 16% to 30% of 26 million). Given that Europe buys 12 million cars per year, hitting that goal would be straightforward for China.
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      You need to look at the size of the internal market first. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that I think that it is very unlikely that we'll see any of those here in numbers that would significantly impact the current division between US/Europe/Japan/Korea. Also keep in mind that whatever goals have been set that Europe at a minimum (but probably also other territories) are going to want to have a very large slice of the labor/manufacturing pie. If that isn't on offer then the tariffs will likely kill the market to protect local competitors, of which there are plenty.
    - thworp 4y ago
      I don't think production capacity is one of the main reasons for not reaching the goal, rather it will be Lithium availability and charging infrastructure.
  - lazylizard 4y ago
    re: nokia vs apple
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      Yes, that happened. But in a way it proves my point: if a local manufacturer competes on quality, branding and user experience they can wipe out an outsider in a very short time. The perception of Chinese brands; Polestar excepted for the moment; is not such that people are going to pick those over the brands that have been active here for longer than people have been alive. Apple was a well known brand name before Nokia was, and that is in part why it succeeded.
  - Dalewyn 4y ago
    >The 2030 timetable is not going to be met by any single manufacturer, if it is going to be met to begin with. I suspect that it is going to be pushed backwards bit by bit as reality sets in: that it always was too ambitious a target to realistically achieve. The car industry, specifically the American market, already went through the "nobody can do tha-- wait what" phase once upon a time: California was poised to enact then-considered-ridiculous emissions regulations, American car makers all complained it was impossible to satisfy and California was on the verge of shelving them when Japanese car makers (read: Honda) came in to show it can be done. The rest is history: Japan proceeded to murder and dominate the American car market, and soon the world. The moral to take away from that is that so long as even one manufacturer can demonstrate the feasibility of the timetable, they can and will become the new king and kingmaker of the car industry. I'm in fact in complete agreement with you that the 2030 timetable is ridiculous and it'll probably be pushed back and back with excuses, but history has proven itself to be amusing at times.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
elzbardico 4y ago
It won't happen, ideologically, globalization is over, and the west have no more qualms about using protectionist measures. Chinese cars will be severely tariffed in countries under west influence or subject to other trade controls.
jacquesm 4y ago
> American cars brands mostly fail outside the US Ford & Tesla customers the world over beg to differ, and GM is sold in many countries under different brands as well. The top 20 has a number of Chinese players and they are definitely moving up year-by-year but the top 5 has been unchanged for years: VW; Toyota; Stellantis; MB; Ford. Tesla is a bit player and BYD isn't on the market so it is impossible to rate them other than as a successful domestic player. If a Chinese manufacturer would succeed in the West my money would be on a JV between VW and FAW, BYD vehicles under the Toyota brand is another option. A Chinese manufacturer going it alone is likely not going to succeed due to the way previous Chinese brands have been received by these markets. Geely played it smart, they have acquired Volvo and with their Polestar brand they are now moderately successful in the EV only market, with 80,000 vehicles scheduled for delivery this year.
- rhaway84773 4y ago
  Ford’s market share continues to decline outside the U.S., dropping to below 6% in Europe and 2% in China. It’s reached a point where afore no longer provides quarterly market share numbers in Europe. https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/ford-global-vehicle-sales-and-market-share/#2 https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/ford-gl... Tesla is doing “well” but it’s starting from a very small base and its absolute numbers are still very low. It still hasn’t faced real competition which is only now ramping up. Let’s see how it responds.
- mytailorisrich 4y ago
  BYD is starting to sell in Europe right now and reviews are actually quite good so we need to wait and see a bit. I see no reason for a decent quality and affordable EV not to achieve at least relative success. But we've seen before that any successful Chinese company is liable to be hit by Western governments' campaigns against it. So if we start to see article linking BYD to whatever awful deed you can think of towards the end of the year or next year I guess it'll mean there are doing well in the West.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    > But we've seen before that any successful Chinese company is liable to be hit by Western governments' campaigns against it. So if we start to see article linking BYD to whatever awful deed you can think of towards the end of the year or next year I guess it'll mean there are doing well in the West. That's a bit of a weird turn in your comment.

Dalewyn 4y ago

There's no "would" about it, it is happening if the 2030 all-EV timetable is kept to. Other than Tesla, western (that includes Japan and South Korea) car makers stand to lose everything vice versa China who stand to gain everything with the current politics.

jacquesm 4y ago
Indeed, companies like VW, BMW, Mercedes, Ford, GM, Hyundai/KIA, Nissan, Honda etc are going to lose everything compared to a new entrant which doesn't have a single vehicle on sale in the markets where those brands have long been established players. They must be quaking in their boots. /s The 2030 timetable is not going to be met by any single manufacturer, if it is going to be met to begin with. I suspect that it is going to be pushed backwards bit by bit as reality sets in: that it always was too ambitious a target to realistically achieve. And if they stick to it, which I would find very brave it will simply mean that the price of personal transportation will skyrocket and that older non BEVs will have to hang around a little longer. There is so much that has to work for an all electric transition for every new vehicle sold in the next 7 years to be successful that I wouldn't bet on it. I think of it more as a goal to strive for than something that is realistically achievable, but of course I hope that I'll be wrong on this. Time will tell.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  China added production capacity for almost 4million EV's last year. (from 16% to 30% of 26 million). Given that Europe buys 12 million cars per year, hitting that goal would be straightforward for China.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    You need to look at the size of the internal market first. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that I think that it is very unlikely that we'll see any of those here in numbers that would significantly impact the current division between US/Europe/Japan/Korea. Also keep in mind that whatever goals have been set that Europe at a minimum (but probably also other territories) are going to want to have a very large slice of the labor/manufacturing pie. If that isn't on offer then the tariffs will likely kill the market to protect local competitors, of which there are plenty.
  - thworp 4y ago
    I don't think production capacity is one of the main reasons for not reaching the goal, rather it will be Lithium availability and charging infrastructure.
- lazylizard 4y ago
  re: nokia vs apple
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    Yes, that happened. But in a way it proves my point: if a local manufacturer competes on quality, branding and user experience they can wipe out an outsider in a very short time. The perception of Chinese brands; Polestar excepted for the moment; is not such that people are going to pick those over the brands that have been active here for longer than people have been alive. Apple was a well known brand name before Nokia was, and that is in part why it succeeded.
- Dalewyn 4y ago
  >The 2030 timetable is not going to be met by any single manufacturer, if it is going to be met to begin with. I suspect that it is going to be pushed backwards bit by bit as reality sets in: that it always was too ambitious a target to realistically achieve. The car industry, specifically the American market, already went through the "nobody can do tha-- wait what" phase once upon a time: California was poised to enact then-considered-ridiculous emissions regulations, American car makers all complained it was impossible to satisfy and California was on the verge of shelving them when Japanese car makers (read: Honda) came in to show it can be done. The rest is history: Japan proceeded to murder and dominate the American car market, and soon the world. The moral to take away from that is that so long as even one manufacturer can demonstrate the feasibility of the timetable, they can and will become the new king and kingmaker of the car industry. I'm in fact in complete agreement with you that the 2030 timetable is ridiculous and it'll probably be pushed back and back with excuses, but history has proven itself to be amusing at times.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

elzbardico 4y ago

It won't happen, ideologically, globalization is over, and the west have no more qualms about using protectionist measures. Chinese cars will be severely tariffed in countries under west influence or subject to other trade controls.

jacquesm 4y ago

> American cars brands mostly fail outside the US Ford & Tesla customers the world over beg to differ, and GM is sold in many countries under different brands as well. The top 20 has a number of Chinese players and they are definitely moving up year-by-year but the top 5 has been unchanged for years: VW; Toyota; Stellantis; MB; Ford. Tesla is a bit player and BYD isn't on the market so it is impossible to rate them other than as a successful domestic player. If a Chinese manufacturer would succeed in the West my money would be on a JV between VW and FAW, BYD vehicles under the Toyota brand is another option. A Chinese manufacturer going it alone is likely not going to succeed due to the way previous Chinese brands have been received by these markets. Geely played it smart, they have acquired Volvo and with their Polestar brand they are now moderately successful in the EV only market, with 80,000 vehicles scheduled for delivery this year.

rhaway84773 4y ago
Ford’s market share continues to decline outside the U.S., dropping to below 6% in Europe and 2% in China. It’s reached a point where afore no longer provides quarterly market share numbers in Europe. https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/ford-global-vehicle-sales-and-market-share/#2 https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/ford-gl... Tesla is doing “well” but it’s starting from a very small base and its absolute numbers are still very low. It still hasn’t faced real competition which is only now ramping up. Let’s see how it responds.
mytailorisrich 4y ago
BYD is starting to sell in Europe right now and reviews are actually quite good so we need to wait and see a bit. I see no reason for a decent quality and affordable EV not to achieve at least relative success. But we've seen before that any successful Chinese company is liable to be hit by Western governments' campaigns against it. So if we start to see article linking BYD to whatever awful deed you can think of towards the end of the year or next year I guess it'll mean there are doing well in the West.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  > But we've seen before that any successful Chinese company is liable to be hit by Western governments' campaigns against it. So if we start to see article linking BYD to whatever awful deed you can think of towards the end of the year or next year I guess it'll mean there are doing well in the West. That's a bit of a weird turn in your comment.