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That’s really a Nigeria problem, tho, not the entire continent. Nigeria has stumbled the last few years, most other African nations have not. The argument is b
by Robotbeat 4y ago
That’s really a Nigeria problem, tho, not the entire continent. Nigeria has stumbled the last few years, most other African nations have not.
The argument is based on cherry-picking arguments like that. Overall, Africa is quite rapidly developing. Not as fast as we would like, but the overall narrative of the article is cherry-picked nonsense not consistent with reality. Subsaharan Africa overall has grown in per capita gdp by about 2x since 2000. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=ZG&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat...
…while its birthrate per woman has fallen from 5.7 to 4.7 (and on a steeper decline now than 20 years ago). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
In fact, I’m even more confident that birthrate will fall to near replacement in 50 years than I am about development, but even if just the birthrate drops, the improved dependency ratio will just about automatically increase the per capita gdp. Africa currently has roughly twice the number of dependents-per-worker as east Asia, for instance. (Or did in 2010), and a reducing fertility rate will mechanistically improve that dramatically. That alone is good for like a 50-100% increase in per capita gdp, let alone the compounding effects of a beneficial dependency ratio.